Rupee headed to 64/$, Nifty poised for 3rd straight fall

Indian stock markets and the rupee are likely to open lower for a third consecutive day. Nifty futures on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) pointed to over 60 point cut on Tuesday.

The rupee is poised to hit another record low high at open with non-deliverable forward (NDF) rates signalling the currency may test 64/dollar in early trading. It last closed at 63.13/14 after charting a high of 63.30. The dollar-rupee 1-month NDFs surged in NY trade to close at 64.53-58.

The rupee closed at a record low of 63.13 on Monday after hitting a low of 63.30 earlier in the day. Traders did not cite any significant RBI intervention on Monday even as the currency fell 2.3 per cent. Dealers cite continued dollar demand from state-run banks for oil, defence and other interest payments.

As of 08.36 a.m., the Nifty futures traded at 5,347, down 62 points or 1.15 per cent. In late New York trade, one-month dollar rupee non-deliverable forwards gapped to a record high 64.50, albeit on thin volume. Trading in these forward contracts closed in Europe at 63.50.

Asian stocks opened lower on Tuesday under a cloud of uncertainty about when the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to reduce its stimulus, which pushed up yields on U.S. Treasuries to two-year highs.

The BSE Sensex has shed over 1000 points in the last two sessions tracking the Indian rupee, which hit consecutive record lows over the past two days.

The Sensex closed at 18,307.5 points on Monday, while the Nifty ended at 5,414.75.

The partially convertible rupee has fallen more than 13 per cent in spot trading against the U.S. dollar so far this year, with the majority of the decline coming after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted in May that it would begin slowing its pace of quantitative easing.

The Reserve Bank of India has proven unable to stem the rupee’s selloff, despite intervention and curbs on outflows from companies and individuals, which have dented India’s stock and bond markets.

The government continues with incremental steps, banning duty-free import of flat-screen televisions. The RBI raised cap on foreign direct investment in asset reconstruction companies.

(With inputs from Reuters)

SGX Nifty

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