Dollar Index can head towards resistance at 104 while Euro can dip towards 1.0850-1.08. EURJPY can trade below 158 for a while. USDJPY has been rising slowly and could face rejection from anywhere within 145-147 region while Pound and Aussie may bounce from supports near 1.26/2550 and 0.66 respectively. USDCNY is bullish towards 7.30/32. USDRUB has been volatile and could trade within the broad 85-88 region. EURINR may trade within 90.30-89 while USDINR has scope to bounce from support near 81.90-82.00 and rise towards 82.20/30.

Dollar Index (103.30) has been rising well and has scope to test resistance near 104 before facing a sharp rejection from there. Immediate view is bullish above 103.

EURUSD (1.0869) has been falling sharply over the last 2-sessions, breaking below 1.09. Euro looks bearish for the near term towards 1.0850-1.08 before a bounce back to 1.09+ level is seen again.

EURJPY (157.35) seems to be holding below 158 for now. A dip to 156 looks possible in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (144.77) has been rising slowly each passing day. There are a series of resistances near 145-147 region and the currency pair could face rejection within this region to see a dip towards 144/143 soon.

USDCNY (7.2543) is headed towards 7.32, the high seen in Nov-22. Thereafter it could face a corrective dip followed by a possible resumption of upmove towards 7.35/40 in the coming weeks.

Pound (1.2617) has support near 1.26-1.2550 from where a bounce back towards 1.27 or higher is possible soon.

Aussie (0.6624) is holding above 0.66 for now and needs to rise sharply from here to avoid further decline to 0.65 and instead rise towards 0.67 and higher.

USDRUB (86.8601) rose sharply to almost test 88 on the upside before declining from there. Near term range of 88-85 looks possible for the next few sessions. Volatility remains high for now.

USDINR (82.0563) is holding near support of 81.90-82.00 and has higher chances of seeing a bounce from here towards 82.20/30 in the next few sessions. Narrow trade over the last couple of weeks has made it difficult to project a direction from here unless confirmed movement is seen.

EURINR (89.1844) may hold above 89 for now and produce a bounce back towards 89.50-90 soon. The range of 89-90 may hold for the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply and are coming up near their range resistance. We will have to wait and see if they are breaking the range on the upside or not. The German yields have risen sharply thereby reducing the danger of the fall. They can now move up towards the upper end of their range. The 10Yr GoI remains vulnerable to fall. But the 5Yr GoI looks mixed and can go either way from here.

The US 10Yr (3.84%) and the 30Yr (3.90%) have moved up towards the upper end of their 3.6%-3.85% and 3.8%-4% range respectively. It will have to be seen if they can break the range now or not.

The German 10Yr (2.41%) and the 30Yr (2.42%) have risen sharply thereby reducing the chances of a fall. Now they can rise further to test the upper end of their 2.1%-2.5% (10Yr) and 2.15%-2.65% (30Yr) range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0575%) has dipped below 7.06% as expected. While this sustains, a test of 7.04% and even 7% is possible again.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0188%) on other hand looks mixed. It still has chances for a rise to 7.1%. A break below 7% is needed to negate that rise and drag it to 6.9%.

Dow Jones and DAX looks bullish in the near term. Nifty has crucial resistance around 19100 from where a reversal might be seen. Nikkei lacks strength to move up above its immediate resistance and may come down in the near term. Shanghai is hovering below 3200. Need to see if it breaks above it or not.

Dow (34122.42, +0.80%) has surged above 34000 and can now head up towards 34300-34500 in line with our expectation.

DAX (15946.72, -0.01%) has risen above 15900. It can now rise and revisit 16200-16300.

Nifty (18972.10, +0.82%) has a crucial resistance around 19100. While that holds, a corrective fall to 18500 and even lower can be seen going forward.

Nikkei (32990.86, -0.73%) lacks strength to move up above 33500. While it remains below 33500, a dip towards 32500-32000 cannot be negated.

Shanghai (3198.28, +0.50%) is hovering below the resistance at 3200. Only a strong break above it could see a target of 3225. Else it could remain ranged within 3200-3150 for some time before breaking lower.

Brent and WTI have bounced back from their support level and may continue to be range bound in the near term. Gold can rise towards its immediate resistance while it stays above 1900. Sliver appears range bound. Copper has rebounded and if it sustains above 3.70, a further rise can be seen.

Brent ($ 74.64) and WTI ($ 69.93) have bounced back as the support at $ 72 and $ 67 respectively have held well. This keeps the range trade intact between $ 72-$ 77 (Brent) and $ 67-$ 73/75 (WTI).

Gold (1917.20) tested 1900 yesterday and has bounced back slightly from there, as expected. While 1900 holds, a rise towards 1950-1960 can be seen.

Silver (22.81) is consolidating above 22.50. Outlook is mixed. A range of 23.50-22 could hold for some time.

Copper (3.7350) tested a low of 3.6830 beyond our expected level of 3.72-3.70 and has risen back from there. A rise towards 3.80 is possible while the bounce sustains above 3.70. Else view can turn further bearish to 3.60.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn 2.7% …Expected 2.6% …Previous 2.6%

6:00 11:30 UK GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.1% …Previous 0.1%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY) Flash Estimate
Expn 5.9% …Expected 5.6% …Previous 6.1%

9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
Expn 6.4% …Expected 6.5% …Previous 6.5%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.4%

12:30 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.4%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.0%

DATA YESTERDAY:
——————-
9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn 94.1 …Expected 96.0 …Previous 96.5 …Actual 95.3

12:30 18:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 1.4% …Previous 1.3% …Actual 2.0%