After a lower US ISM data yesterday, markets await the US NFP and unemployment data on Friday indicating the Dollar could remain volatile through the week. Dollar Index trades lower but can test 104 in the near term while Euro can continue trade within 1.08-1.10. EURJPY needs to break above 158 else could remain within a sideways range for sometime while USDJPY can fall to 144 while below 145. USDCNY can test 7.22/20 before again rising back towards 7.30 in the coming sessions. Pound can test 1.2650-1.26 while Aussie looks bullish towards 0.67. USDRUB continues its rise towards 90-92. USDINR fell sharply to 81.7525 but recovered to close at 81.96. It has to be seen if the pair rises to 82.10 or continues to trade lower today. EURINR can fall to 89-88.80.

Dollar Index (103.028) had been fluctuating within 102.75-103.30 region yesterday and needs to break on either side to give some clarity. However, on the charts, the index has some scope to test resistance at 104 in the coming sessions before coming down towards 102.75-102.50 again in the medium term. To that extent, EURUSD (1.0902) can continue trade within 1.08-1.10 in the next few sessions.

EURJPY (157.67) has dipped slightly after testing 157.96 yesterday. It is important to see if the pair breaks above 158 to head higher towards 159 else if the price remains below 158, it can fall sharply towards 157.

Dollar-Yen (144.59) seems to be holding below immediate resistance near 145. A slow fall to 144 or lower can be possible in the next few sessions. Very near term range of 144-145 may hold for the next couple of sessions.

USDCNY (7.2393) can test 7.22-7.20 in the next few sessions before rising back towards 7.25/30 on the upside. Overall view remains bullish above 7.20.

Pound (1.268) has dipped contrary to our expectation of seeing a rise to 1.28. Now, while below 1.2750-1.2700, the Pound can attempt to re-test 1.2650-1.26 before attempting to rise towards 1.28 in the next 1-2 weeks.

Aussie (0.6672) is holding above 0.6650 and has scope to rise to 0.67 and higher in the near term.

USDRUB (89.4970) looks bullish for a rise towards 90/92 soon.

USDINR (81.9625) fell sharply to 81.7525 but recovered higher to close at 81.9625. Whether the pair will rise back to 82.10 or fall lower today has to be seen.

EURINR (89.3356) has dipped as expected and could now fall towards 89-88.80 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields remained stable. The sideways range is intact now. The next leg of move will become clear based on which side the range is getting broken. The German yields can move up within their range in the near-term. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up and have room to rise further from here.

The US 10Yr (3.85%) and (3.86%) remain stable. The 10Yr is at the upper end of its 3.6%-3.85% and needs to see if it is breaching 3.85% or falling back. The 30Yr on the other hand has room to rise within its 3.8%-4% range.

The German 10Yr (2.43%) has risen back while the 30Yr (2.38%) remains stable. We retain our view of the yields moving up within their 2.1%-2.5% (10Yr) and 2.15%-2.65% (30Yr) range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1192%) is holding well above 7.1% and keeps the chances high for a further rise to 7.15%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0935%) is heading up towards 7.1% in line with our expectation. As mentioned yesterday, a break above 7.1% will be bullish to see 7.2% and higher levels.

Dow Jones looks bullish for the near term. Shanghai has risen sharply above its resistance and can now move up further from here. DAX and Nikkei have declined but can get support at 15900 and 33000 respectively. Nifty continues to target new highs and remain bullish to advance further on the upside.

Dow (34418.47, +0.03%) sustains higher. While above 34200, the Dow can break 34500 and rise to 35000-35500 in the coming days.

DAX (16081.04, -0.41%) has dipped slightly. It can get support at 15900 and rise to 16300-16400 in the coming days.

Nifty (19322.55, +0.7%) has risen further and remains strong. Outlook is bullish to see 19500 first and then 20000. Support will be in the broad 19200-19000 region.

Nikkei (33360.73, -1.16%) has fallen back from a high of 33763 but downside could be limited to 33000. That is expected to hold and keep our bullish view intact of seeing a rise towards 34500-35000 in the near term.

Shanghai (3242.26, -0.05%) has broken sharply above the resistance at 3225. A rise towards 3275-3300 looks possible now.

Brent and WTI may continue to remain sideways within $ 79-$ 71 and $ 75-$ 67 for some time. Gold and Sliver needs to break above their immediate resistances to move up further. Copper looks bullish for the near term.

Brent ($ 75.03) tested $ 76.60 yesterday and has declined from there. The sideways range between $ 79/$ 77-$ 71 may continue to hold until a decisive breakout on either side of the range is seen.

WTI ($ 70.17) tested $ 71.77 yesterday and has fallen back from there contrary to our view of seeing a rise towards the upper end of the sideways range. It may continue to consolidate within $ 75/$ 73-$ 67 range for some time.

Gold (1929.30) tested 1940 yesterday as expected and has come down a bit from there. A rise past 1940 could see a rally towards 1960-1980.

Silver (23.14) is gradually moving up towards the upper end of the 23.50-22 range. A break above 23.50/23.75 is needed to open doors toward 24.50. Else can dip to 22.50-22.

Copper (3.7940) is hovering below 3.8. A break above it could pave the way towards 3.90-3.93.

4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.10% …Previous 4.10%

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Expn 49.3 …Expected – …Previous 49.0

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
23:50 05:20 JP Tankan Large Manufacturers Index
Expn – …Expected 3 …Previous 1 …Actual 5

0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Expn 50.7 …Expected 49.8 …Previous 50.6 …Actual 49.8

1:45 07:15 CN PMI
Expn 50.5 …Expected 50.0 …Previous 50.9 …Actual 50.5

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 58.6 …Expected 58.0 …Previous 58.7 …Actual 57.8

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 2.4% …Expected 1.8% …Previous 2.2% …Actual 1.7%

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 42.9 …Expected 42.8 …Previous 43.2 …Actual 44.9

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn 43.6 …Expected 43.6 …Previous 44.8 …Actual 43.4

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 45.5 …Expected 46.2 …Previous 47.1 …Actual 46.5

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 45.5 …Expected 47.2 …Previous 46.9 …Actual 46