The release of softer-than-expected US NFP data has dragged the Dollar Index down and Euro up but the momentum could be short-lived because Euro could face resistance at 1.10 and Dollar can get support at 102.25. EURJPY and USDJPY have bounced back but could face resistance at 157 and 143.50 respectively. USDCNY can test 7.30 while it remains above support near 7.2150. Pound has scope to rally on the upside while it remains above 1.27. Aussie and USDRUB could trade within 0.67-0.66 and 90-95. USDINR can dip towards 82.50/40 while below the resistance at 82.80. EURINR can face rejection from 90.60/80.

Dollar Index (102.44) has bounced back from the last Friday’s fall to 102.23. Support is at 102.25. If that holds, a rise back to 103 can be seen.

EURUSD (1.0959) rose sharply to 1.0973 last Friday as expected and has come off slightly from there. Key resistance is seen at 1.0985-1.10. A break above 1.10 is needed to strengthen the momentum towards 1.11. Else it may see a dip towards 1.09.

EURJPY (156.52) has managed to hold above 156 but the price action is hinting at a possible break below 156 and fall towards 155-154 soon.

Dollar-Yen (142.81) fell to 142.08 as expected and has bounced back from there. Resistance is at 143.50. If that holds, it may see a further dip towards 140.

USDCNY (7.2311) has managed to hold above the support at 7.2150. While above 7.2150, a rise towards 7.30 or higher looks possible.

Pound (1.2819) has risen well above our expected level of 1.28. Support is at 1.27, while above this, it has scope to test 1.29-1.2950 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6675) has risen towards 0.67 as expected as the support mentioned at 0.66 has held well. A strong follow-through rise above 0.67 is needed to open the way towards 0.68. Else it may trade within 0.67-0.66 for some time.

USDRUB (90.55) has declined from the level of 94-95. However, support is at 90. If that holds, a range f 90-95 could hold for some time.

USDINR (82.7450) has risen well and closed higher at 82.7450 on Friday on the onshore market. However, on the offshore market, it has come down to trade below 82.70 indicating a possible fall in the onshore market. Resistance is at 82.80. While that holds, a dip towards 82.50/40 can be seen.

EURINR (90.6340) has risen sharply above 90.50. Immediate resistance is at 90.60/80. While that holds, a dip towards 90 can be seen.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. The outlook is bullish. While the momentum sustains, the yields have room to rise further from here. German yields have risen further. The bullish view is intact, and the yields can rise more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI sustains well above their resistances and can move up more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.07%) and (4.05%) have risen further. While above 4%, the 10Yr can rise to 4.2% and the 30Yr can test 4.2%-4.25% on the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.63%) and the 30Yr (2.64%) have moved further up. The 10Yr can surge to 3% from here with intermediate dips. The 30Yr can target 3.1% on a strong break above 2.65%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1609%) has risen above 7.15%. While this break sustains, a test of 7.2% and even higher levels is possible in the coming days.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1433%) has moved up further. It can rise to 7.15%-7.20% while above 7.1%.

Dow has scope to test its immediate support before a reversal can happen. DAX has bounced back but may not sustain. Shanghai has risen back but needs to surpass the barrier ahead to negate the danger of falling further on the downside. Nifty has scope to rebound from the support at 19300-19200. Nikkei is coming down to test its key support. Need to see if it bounces back from there or not.

Dow (33734.88, -0.55%) is coming down to test 33600-33500 as expected. The Dow can reverse again from this support zone towards 34500 again. Broadly 33500-34500 is the trading range for now.

DAX (15603.40, +0.48%) has bounced back but may not sustain. While below 15700-16000, the bias is negative. A break below 15500 can drag the index down to 15000.

The correction to 19300 on the Nifty (19331.80, -0.85%) mentioned on Friday has happened much quickly. 19300-19200 is a good support zone from where the uptrend can resume targeting 20000 in the coming weeks.

Nikkei (32155, -0.72%) continues to dip and has scope to test 32000. Failure to bounce back from 32000 could see a further fall towards 31500. On the upside resistance is at 33000.

Shanghai (3213.5197. +0.53%) has bounced back from a low of 3189.21 seen on last Friday. But it has to break above 3225-3230 to negate the danger of falling towards 3150 or lower.

Brent and WTI upside could be capped at $ 79 and $ 75 respectively. Gold, Silver, and Copper have rebounded following the release of Lower US NFP data on Friday but need to break above their immediate resistance to extend the bounce further on the upside.

Brent ($ 78.15) has risen sharply above $ 77. A test of the upper end of the $ 79-$ 71 range looks possible. If $ 79 holds, Brent may continue to trade sideways within the mentioned range for a few more sessions.

WTI ($ 73.49) has risen towards the upper end of the $ 75-$ 67 range. $ 75 is a key resistance level which might cap the upside and may keep it sideways within the mentioned range for some time.

Gold (1930.10) has rebounded as the support at 1900 is holding well. A strong break above 1940-1950 is needed to move up further towards 1975-1980. Else it may remain range bound within 1950-1900 for some time.

Silver (23.27) has bounced back towards the resistance at 23.50. A decisive break above it is needed to rally towards 24-24.50. Else it would remain vulnerable to see a break below 22.50 and fall towards 22.

Copper (3.7695) has recovered from Friday’s low of 3.7255. A break above 3.8 is needed to open the doors towards 3.90. Else it could trade within 3.80-3.70 for a while.

1:30 7:00 CN CPI (YoY)
Expn – …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.2

1:30 7:00 CN PPI
Expn – …Expected -5.0 …Previous -4.6

DATA FRIDAY:
—————–
12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 377K …Expected 222K …Previous 306K …Actual 209K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.6% …Expected 3.6% …Previous 3.7% …Actual 3.6%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.4% …Expected – …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.4%

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 22.0K …Previous -17.3K …Actual 59.9K