Some recovery is seen in the currencies today after the volatile movement seen last week post weak US CPI data release. Dollar Index has paused to see a slight rise from 99.578 which has paused the rally in Euro near 1.1225. It is to be seen if the rise in Euro resumes in the near term with the Dollar Index resuming its fall towards 99. Pound and Aussie also see a corrective fall. Aussie may head towards 0.6750 or lower while resistance at 0.69 holds strong but Pound has some scope of testing 1.32 before falling from there. EURJPY can pause for a few sessions but can target 156/157 soon while USDJPY is bearish below 139. USDCNY can rise to 7.20 soon while USDRUB seems to be inching lower and could soon test 88 on the downside. EURINR can rise to 93 while USDINR can trade within 81.90-82.25/30 region.

Dollar Index (99.947) has risen slightly from 99.578 seen on Friday. There could be a slight corrective bounce to 100-100.60 but overall trend remains down with a possible target of 99 or lower eventually.

EURUSD (1.1225) seems to have paused above 1.12 but has scope to rise to 1.13 in the near term before any correction is seen. Downside could be limited to 1.1160.

EURJPY (155.50) tested 156.136 on Friday but trades slightly lower just now. It can rise back towards 156-157 in the near term while above support near 154.

Dollar-Yen (138.50) is bearish while below 139.30. Downside target of 136 cannot be negated over the next couple of weeks.

USDCNY (7.1624) has recovered well, bouncing back from 7.1198 to current levels. Sustained rise can take the pair to 7.20 but whether it will continue to rise further is to be seen.

Pound (1.3093) has scope to test 1.32 before falling off slightly from there.

Aussie (0.6821) has declined sharply from 0.69 which seems to be holding as a strong resistance. A further fall to 0.6750-0.67 cannot be negated in the coming days.

USDRUB (90.2260) seems to be slowly inching lower but continues to remain volatile. A fall to 88 seems possible soon.

USDINR (82.0150) may hold above 81.90-82.00 while immediate upside could be limited to 82.20/30 for the day.

EURINR (92.2080) has fair scope to rise towards 93 on the upside before a possible reversal is seen in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have bounced but needs to see if that sustains to move further higher. It is a wait and watch situation. The German yields have bounced back. A strong follow-through rise is needed from here to move further up. Else they can fall back again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have bounced. But the resistances ahead have to be breached to become bullish and avoid a fall.

The US 10Yr (3.83%) and 30Yr (3.93%) have risen back. The 10Yr has to sustain above 3.8%, the move up again to 3.9%-4% and avoid the fall to 3.6%. The 30Yr has to get a follow-through rise to move above 4% and negate the fall to 3.8%-3.75%.

The German 10Yr (2.51%) and the 30Yr (2.53%) yield have risen back. Need to see if this bounce sustains. The 30Yr retains its 2.1%-2.65% range. The 10Yr has to sustain above 2.5% to move higher and avoid falling back into its 2.1%.2.5% range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0910%) has bounced sharply but needs to rise past 7.11% to avoid testing 7.05%-7% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0710%) has risen back just above 7.07%. A strong rise past 7.1% is needed to avoid the fall to 7%.

Dow is at the upper end of its sideways range band and needs a strong rise past 34600 to target further upside. DAX has dipped but needs to sustain above 16000 to avoid a further fall on the downside. Nifty remains bullish to target new highs. Shanghai looks bearish in the near term.

Dow (34509.03, +0.33%) is at the upper end of its 33500-34500 range. A strong rise past 34600 from here will be bullish to see 34800-35000 and 35500 going forward.

DAX (16105.05, -0.22%) has dipped slightly. It has to sustain above 16000 and breach 16200 to move up to 16400-16500. We will have to wait and watch.

Nifty (19564.50, +0.78%) has closed well above 19525. The outlook remains bullish to see 19800-20000 in the coming weeks. Support will now be at 19500-19400.

Nikkei (32391.26) is closed today. It needs a strong break above 32500-33000 to avoid a fall towards 31500 or 31000.

Shanghai (3202.23, -1.10%) tested 3250 as expected and has declined from there. If the fall sustains, it can come down towards 3150.

Brent has fallen back failing to sustain the break above $ 81. WTI has too declined as the resistance at $ 78 has held well. Both the crude prices can dip further in the near term. Gold, Silver, and Copper have fallen back but the near-term supports are likely to hold and produce a bounce back toward our expected level.

Brent ($ 79.19) has declined after testing a high of 81.75. Only a sustained break above $ 81 could pave the way toward $ 85 looks possible. Else a further dip towards $ 77-$ 76.50 can be seen.

WTI ($ 74.76) has declined as the resistance mentioned at $ 78 has held well. While it remains below $ 78, a dip toward $ 73 or lower is possible.

Gold (1956.10) has declined after failing to rise above 1970. Support is at 1945-1940, while above which, there is scope for a rise towards 1975-1980 or even higher to 2000.

Silver (25.05) lacks follow through rise above 25. Any fall would be limited to 24.50-24. While above 24, bias will remain bullish for a rise towards 26-26.30.

Copper (3.9075) has fallen back from the level of 3.95. Support is at 3.88-3.85. While above 3.85, there is scope for a break above 3.95 and a rise towards 4.

2:00 7:30 CN GDP
Expn – …Expected 7.3% …Previous 4.5%

2:00 7:30 CN IIP (YoY)
Expn – …Expected 2.5% …Previous 3.5%

2:00 7:30 CN Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 3.4% …Previous 12.7%

DATA FRIDAY:
—————–
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn -2.59% …Expected – …Previous -3.48% …Actual -4.12%

9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected -10.3EUR Bln …Previous -8.0EUR Bln …Actual 0.9EUR Bln

10:00 15:30 IN Trade bal
Expn – …Expected -21.22$ Bln …Previous -22.12$ Bln …Actual -20.13$ Bln