Dollar Index seems to be falling again and can target 99 or lower while Euro is headed towards 1.13 or higher. Pound and Aussie seem to be rising again towards 1.32 and 0.69 while note that Aussie has crucial long term resistance near 0.69/0.70. EURJPY can target 156/157 soon while USDJPY is bearish below 139 towards 137/136. USDCNY can hold below 7.20 to test 7.15/10 while USDRUB seems to be inching higher while above 89 to target 91/92 again. EURINR can rise to 93 while USDINR can trade within 81.90-82.25/30 region.

Dollar Index (99.831) tested 100.18 briefly yesterday but seems to be falling again targeting 99 in the next few sessions. Overall view remains bearish.

EURUSD (1.1246) has started moving up again and can head towards 1.13 in the next few sessions. We have to see if the Euro manages to break above 1.13 and head towards 1.14 in case of continued Dollar weakness.

EURJPY (155.87) has bounced well from levels above 155. A test of 157 could be on the cards for the near term.

Dollar-Yen (138.57) continues to remain bearish while below 139.30. Downside target of 137-136 looks possible soon.

USDCNY (7.1705) may hold below 7.18/20 and fall back towards 7.15/10 on continued Dollar weakness.

Pound (1.3086) has scope to test 1.32 before seeing any potential correction from there.

Aussie (0.6824) has to hold above 0.6780 for rising again towards 0.69, But 0.69/0.70 is a strong resistance zone on the longer term charts and while that holds, Aussie could find difficulty in rising further from current levels.

USDRUB (90.6015) seems to be holding above 89 just now and is slowly rising towards 91/92. Overall narrow range of 91-89 and broader range of 92-88 can hold for the rest of the month.

USDINR (82.0450) traded within 82.2025-82.03 yesterday, much in line with our expected range of 81.90-82.20/30. The mentioned range may hold for a few more sessions with lack of directional clarity from current levels just now. Clearly, the weakness in the Dollar is not reflecting in the USDINR movement but the pair has some scope of falling towards 81.90/80 while below 82.30.

EURINR (92.2770) looks potentially bullish for a rise to 92.50-93.00 soon.

The US Treasury yields have dipped again. More fall is likely if they failed to get a strong and sustained bounce. The German yields have also come down and can fall more in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have fallen back failing to sustain the rise. They look vulnerable to fall more in the near-term.

The US 10Yr (3.80%) and 30Yr (3.92%) have dipped again. As mentioned yesterday, the 10Yr has to sustain above 3.8%, to keep the chances alive of rising back to 3.9%-4% and avoid the fall to 3.6%. The 30Yr can fall to 3.8%-3.75% while below 4%.

The German 10Yr (2.47%) and the 30Yr (2.50%) yields have fallen back. The 10Ys is back into its 2.1%-2.5% range. The 30Yr is coming down within its 2.1%-2.65% range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0758%) has come down sharply again and is keeping alive the chances of testing 7.05%-7% on the downside. A strong rise past 7.11% is needed to become bullish.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0531%) has come below 7.07% again and looks vulnerable to see 7% on the downside.

Dow continues to rise and a sustained break above 34600, if seen, can take it further higher in the near term. DAX has to sustain above 15950 to keep alive the chances of our bullish view. Nifty remains bullish in the near term. Nikkei looks mixed. Shanghai has scope to fall towards 3150.

Dow (34585.35, +0.22%) has risen above 34500 as expected. A subsequent rise past 34600 will take it up to 34800-35000 first and then to 35500 eventually in the coming weeks.

DAX (16068.65, -0.23%) has dipped further. Support is at 15950 which has to hold to keep the chances alive to breach 16200 and rise to 16400-16500. A break below 15950 can drag the index down to 15800-15700.

Nifty (19711.45, +0.75%) is heading up towards 19800. A break above 19800 will clear the way for 20000. Support will now be at 19600.

Nikkei (32486.55, +0.29%) lacks follow through rise above 32500. As mentioned, a decisive break above 32500-33000 is needed to avoid a fall towards 31500-31000 and to rise towards 34000.

Shanghai (3192.38, -0.54%) continues to dip. A fall toward 3150 looks likely in the near term.

Brent and WTI can come down further to test their immediate support. Gold, Silver, and Copper have scope to rally on the upside while above the support at 1950/1940, 24.50, and 3.80/3.75 respectively.

Brent ($ 78.63) can dip towards $ 77-$ 76.50 While it remains below $ 79-81.

WTI ($ 74.22) has scope to test $ 73-72 While it remains below $ 75-78.

Gold (1961.40) has bounced back from a low of 1949. Support is now at 1950-1940. While above these levels, bias is positive to see a rise towards 1975-1980 or even higher to 2000.

Silver (25.12) remains stable around 25. The view is bullish for a rise towards 26-26.30 while it remains above the support at 24.50.

Copper (3.8430) has fallen sharply breaking below the support at 3.85. Next support is seen at 3.80-3.75. While these hold, a rise back towards 4.00 is possible.

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 0.0% …Expected 0.5% …Previous 0.3%

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.4%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.0% …Expected 0.0% …Previous -0.2%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 79.4% …Expected 79.5% …Previous 79.6%

20:00 1:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn 302.8$ Bln …Expected 110.7$ Bln …Previous 127.8$ Bln

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
2:00 7:30 CN GDP
Expn – …Expected 7.3% …Previous 4.5% …Actual 6.3%

2:00 7:30 CN IIP (YoY)
Expn – …Expected 2.5% …Previous 3.5% …Actual 4.4%

2:00 7:30 CN Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 3.4% …Previous 12.7% …Actual 3.1%