Dollar Index has risen to 100 taking Euro slightly down to 1.1223. Aussie, Pound and the Chinese Yuan trade weak against the Dollar and could target 0.6740/20, 1.29 and 7.25/30 respectively. EURJPY can target 157 as expected while USDJPY has risen to 139.30 and if it manages to break and sustain higher, it can move up towards 157. USDRUB may trade within 89-92 region while EURINR can hold below 93-92.50. USDINR can trade within 81.90-82.25/30 region unless there is further directional clarity on the pair.

Dollar Index (100.03) has not been able to fall below 99.57 and has instead moved up to 100. A sustained rise from current levels could take it towards 100.50 in the next 2-3 sessions. A narrow range of 99.5-100.5 may hold for now.

EURUSD (1.1223) has come off from 1.1276 and could come down slowly towards 1.12 or lower in the near term.

EURJPY (156.26) is rising as expected and could test 157 soon.

Dollar-Yen (139.24) has managed to rise towards 139.30 mentioned yesterday. A sustained break above 139.30 will take the pair higher towards 140 else, a dip back to 139-138 can be possible in the coming sessions.

USDCNY (7.2083) has risen exactly as expected. It is to be seen if the pair would now sustain above 7.20/21 to rise towards 7.25/30 soon. Overall view is bullish above 7.20.

Pound (1.3017) seems to be in a corrective fall which could extend towards 1.29 before resuming the upmove.

Aussie (0.6783) also seems to be in a similar correction and could extend down to 0.6740/6720 in the next 1-2 sessions.

USDRUB (90.5010) is holding well above 89 and could trade within 89-92 region for the rest of the week.

USDINR (82.0350) has been trading within a broad range of 81.90-82.20 over the past few days. Lack of directional clarity makes it difficult to project further but while the pair finds difficulty to break below 81.90, there could be more chances of a rise towards 82.30.

EURINR (92.1491) seems to have paused for a while after the recent sharp rally. 92.50-93.00 could cap the upside for the near term.

The US Treasury yields continue to fall. The near-term outlook is negative, and the yields can fall more. The German yields have declined further and can fall more towards the lower end of their range. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can fall to test their crucial supports after which the price action will need a close watch to see if they are bouncing back or not.

The US 10Yr (3.78%) and 30Yr (3.89%) continues to fall. The 10Yr can fall to 3.6% if it fails to bounce back above 3.8% immediately. The 30Yr on the other hand can test 3.8%-3.75% on the downside while it remains below 4%.

The German 10Yr (2.38%) and the 30Yr (2.42%) yields have declined further. The 10Yr is back into its 2.1%-2.5% and can fall within it. The 30Yr is retaining its 2.1%-2.65% range and is declining within it.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0566%) has dipped further. It can test 7.02%-7%. The price action thereafter is very crucial to see if the yield is bouncing back or not.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0190%) is coming down towards 7% as expected. It can test 6.97%. A break below it can see an extended fall to 6.9%. Have to wait and watch.

Dow and DAX look bullish in the near term. Nifty could see a short-lived dip while it remains below 19800. Nikkei has risen well above 32500 and a further break above 33000 is needed to clear the path for further upside. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

The rise to 35000 on the Dow (34951.93, +1.06%) is happening much faster than expected. Our view of seeing 35500 on the upside remains intact. 34800 and 34600 will now be supports.

DAX (16125.49, +0.35%) has bounced back. While this sustains, the chances are high for it to break 16200 and rise to 16400-16500.

Nifty (19749.25, +0.19%) tested 19800 as expected and has come off from the high of 19819. While below 19800 a short-lived dip to 19650-19600 is a possibility before the rally targets 20000-20100 on the upside.

Nikkei (32807.94, +0.97%) has risen above 32500. A further break above 33000 is needed to see a rise towards 33800-34000. Support is at 32100.

Shanghai (3187.62, -0.32%) continues to fall. View remains bearish to see a fall towards 3170-3150 in the near term.

Brent and WTI have rebounded and if the bounce sustains, a test of $ 81 and $ 77.50-$ 78 can be seen on the upside. Gold and Silver remain bullish for a rise to 2000 and 26-26.30. Copper remains subdued but the support at 3.80/3.75 is expected to limit the downside. Natural Gas has immediate resistance ahead at 2.67. Need to see if it breaks above 2.67 or not.

Brent ($ 79.43) has bounced back from the level of $ 78 contrary to our view of seeing a dip to $ 77-$ 76.50. If the bounce sustains, it can test $ 81. A rise past $ 81 is needed to rally towards $ 83-85. Else it may fall back to $ 78-77.

WTI ($ 75.39) has risen back well towards $ 76 contrary to our view of seeing a test of $ 73-72. If the rise sustains, a test of $ 77.50-78 is possible. A strong break above $ 78 is needed to rise toward $ 80. Else it can fall back towards $ 74-73.50.

Gold (1979.20) rose sharply to 1988.30 yesterday in line with expectations. A test of 2000 looks likely on the upside. Thereafter a break above 2000 is needed to see a target of 2020. Support is at 1960.

Silver (25.23) is gradually moving up towards 25.50. The bias remains positive to see a rise towards 26-26.30 in the near term. Downside could be limited to 24.50.

Copper (3.8175) remains subdued but has managed to hold above the support at 3.80. The support at 3.80-3.75 is expected to hold and produce a bounce back towards 3.95. Only a break lower could see a dip to 3.70-3.68.

Natural Gas (2.6220) has immediate resistance at 2.67. A break above it is needed to open doors towards 2.80. Else a fall back towards 2.50-2.45 cannot be avoided.

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 8.9% …Expected 8.2% …Previous 8.7%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 5.9% …Expected 5.5% …Previous 5.5%

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1681K …Expected 1480K …Previous 1631K

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 0.0% …Expected 0.5% …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.2%

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.4% …Actual 2.8%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.0% …Expected 0.0% …Previous -0.5% …Actual – 0.6%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 79.4% …Expected 79.5% …Previous 79.4% …Actual 78.9%

20:00 1:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn 302.8$ Bln …Expected 110.7$ Bln …Previous 127.8$ Bln