Dollar Index has dipped slightly from 100.55 and could trade within 100.55-99.50 while Euro trades above 1.12. Aussie is holding well above 0.650 and can rise towards 0.69+ while Pound can attempt to rise to 1.30/31. USDCNY has fallen sharply and could test 7.15/10 while below 7.2150. EURJPY rose to our expected 157+ levels and has come off from there. Downside could be limited to 155 in the near term. USDJPY holds below 140 and can target 138 while USDRUB can rise towards the upper end of the 89-92 region. EURINR can hold within 92.50-91.80 for the next few sessions. USDINR can also continue to trade within 81.90-82.20/30.

Dollar Index (100.058) has not been able to rise above 100.55 and has come off slightly. A near term range of 100.55-99.50 can hold for the rest of the week.

EURUSD (1.1221) is likely to trade in a ranged fashion above 1.12. Thereafter it has to be seen if the Euro moves higher breaking above 1.13 or falls below 1.12.

EURJPY (156.25) tested 157.20 as expected and has fallen sharply from there. A small correction if seen can extend to 155 while medium term upmove remains intact targeting 158.

Dollar-Yen (139.25) has dipped from immediate resistance near 140 and the pair can fall towards 139-138 while below 140.

USDCNY (7.1759) fell sharply losing out on the rise seen yesterday. Would this indicate that the upside is limited to 7.2678 seen earlier and that the pair can start falling sharply from here? We need to wait and watch. While below 7.2150, a fall to 7.15/10 looks likely.

Pound (1.2954) is moving up from 1.2868. Although there is scope for a fall to 1.27, a short corrective rise towards 1.30/31 cannot be negated.

Aussie (0.6825) is holding well above 0.6750 and can rise towards 0.6850-0.69 again in the near term.

USDRUB (91.9411) is rising as expected towards the upper end of the 89-92 range. We may expect a rise to 92 before a fall is seen from there.

USDINR (82.0975) is likely to continue within the range of 81.90-82.20/30 in the next few sessions.

EURINR (92.0335) may trade within 92.50-91.80 region for a few sessions.

The US Treasury yields have come down further. The near-term bearish outlook is intact, and the yields can come down further. The German yields have bounced but can turn down again and fall within their sideways range. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are rising back from their support. A strong break above the upcoming resistance can bring back the bullishness in the GoI.

The US 10Yr (3.75%) and 30Yr (3.84%) have declined further. We retain our bearish view of the 10Yr falling to 3.6% while below 3.8% and the 30Yr to 3.8%-3.75% while below 4%.

The German 10Yr (2.43%) and the 30Yr (2.46%) yields have bounced back. For now, the 2.1%-2.5% (10Yr) and 2.1%-2.65% (30Yr) range remains intact. We can expect the yields to come down again within this range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0769%) has bounced back. A strong rise above 7.1% is needed to avoid the fall to 7.02%-7%. We will have to wait and watch.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0511%) has held well above 7% and is bouncing back. A strong break above 7.1% from here can bring back the bullishness.

Dow has come down from its intraday high and is likely to see a short-lived correction to 34800 before rising back from there. DAX has fallen back but bias will remain bullish while above the support at 15950. Nifty is bullish while above 19700. Nikkei lacks strength to move up above 33000 but downside could be limited to 32000. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Dow (35,061.21, +0.31%) surged to a high of 35234 and has come-off from there. A short-lived correction to 34800 is a possibility before the Dow moves up to 35500.

DAX (16108.93, -0.10%) failed to sustain the break above 16200 yesterday. While above 15950 the bias is bullish to break 16200 and rise to 16400-16500.

Nifty (19833.15, +0.42%) is getting good support around 19700 over the last couple of days. That keeps the bullish view intact of seeing a rise to 20000-20100.

Nikkei (32,521.50, -1.14%) has fallen back failing to break above 33000. Support is at 32100-32000. While that holds, there is scope for a bounce back towards 33000 again.

Shanghai (3190.34, -0.27%) remains lower and is likely to fall towards 3170-3150 in the near term.

Brent and WTI can come down while below the resistance at $ 81 and $ 77.50-$ 78. Gold and Silver remain bullish for a rise to 2000 and 26-26.30. Copper has rebounded and may move up further to our expected level while above the support at 3.80/3.75. Natural Gas has to surpass 2.67 to avoid a fall back in the near term.

As expected, Brent ($ 79.53) tested $ 81 yesterday and has come down from. Only a strong break above $ 81 could pave the way towards $ 83-85. Else it can come down to $ 78-77.

WTI ($ 75.39) tested a high of 76.87 in line with expectation and has come down from there. Failure to rise above $ 77.50-78 can see a dip towards $ 74-73.50.

Gold (1988.40) remains higher and has scope to test 2000 on the upside. Thereafter a further break above 2000 is needed to see a target of 2020. Support is now at 1965.

Silver (25.42) has risen towards 25.50. Bias remains positive for a rise towards 26-26.30 in the near term. Support is at 24.90 and lower at 24.50.

Copper (3.83) has bounced back from a low of 3.7810. As long as it sustain above 3.80-3.75, there is scope for a rise towards 3.95.

Natural Gas (2.6380) is hovering below the resistance at 2.67. A break above it could see a target of 2.8. Else it would be vulnerable to a decline towards 2.50 or even lower to 2.40.

1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 16.5K …Previous 75.9K

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
Expn 10.3 …Expected -10.2 …Previous -13.7

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 4162K …Expected 4220K …Previous 4300K

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 8.9% …Expected 8.2% …Previous 8.7% …Actual 8.0%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 5.9% …Expected 5.5% …Previous 6.1% …Actual 5.5%

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1681K …Expected 1480K …Previous 1559K …Actual 1434K