Dollar Index may have resistance near 101-101.20 which if holds can drag it lower while the fall in Euro could be limited to 1.1080/1050. Aussie rallied after the employment data release but could not sustain higher and has fallen back. Could rise again while above 0.6750. Pound has fallen sharply but could face support near 1.28/27 next week before signaling a reversal. USDCNY can test 7.15/10. EURJPY can target 157/158 as expected while USDJPY can test 141. USDRUB tested 92 as expected and is now coming down within the 92-89 range. EURINR can hold below 93-92.50 and test 91 on the downside before bouncing back again by end of next week. USDINR can trade within 81.90/80-82.20/30 region unless we see a break on either side of the broad range.

Dollar Index (100.758) has been rising over this week and can test immediate resistance near 101-101.20 below which the index can again turn down towards 100.50-100.

EURUSD (1.1139) has broken below 1.12 but downside could be limited to a maximum of 1.1080-1.1050 before resuming the rise towards 1.1250-1.13 again.

EURJPY (156.199) has support at 155, above which the pair can rise towards 157/158 soon.

Dollar-Yen (140.22) is slowly moving up and can test 141 before pausing.

USDCNY (7.1665) is falling and can test 7.15/10 soon.

Pound (1.2880) is in a downtrend that can extend to 1.28-1.27 next week before a reversal can be expected. Within that any rise could be short lived and corrective.

Aussie (0.6778) rallied to test 0.6846 yesterday after release of employment data but fell back to current levels as the rise failed to sustain. While above 0.6750, Aussie can attempt to rise slowly towards 0.68 or higher. On the downside there is scope for a test of 0.67 in the medium term.

USDRUB (90.1024) did test 92 yesterday and has fallen back as expected within the 89-92 range which may hold for some more days.

USDINR (81.9875) fell at the closing hours of yesterday’s session to close below 82 and tested 81.9170 on the NDF thereafter. It would be important to see if the pair breaks lower and falls towards 81.80 or remains within the 81.80-82.30 region for some more time. An initial break below 81.90 is needed for any indication of a fall.

EURINR (91.3994) has been falling sharply from 92.50 and can test 91 before rising back again in early sessions next week.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply thereby reducing the danger of the fall. It is now important to see if this bounce is sustaining and taking the yields further higher. The German yields have risen further and are poised near the upper end of their range. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have inched higher but need to gain momentum. The price action in the coming days will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (3.84%) and 30Yr (3.90%) have risen back sharply. Need to see if the 10Yr can sustain above 3.8% now in which case a rise to 4% can be seen again and the fall to 3.6% will get negated. The 30Yr can rise back to 4% if this bounce sustains.

The German 10Yr (2.48%) and the 30Yr (2.50%) yields have risen further. Broadly, the yields are oscillating within their 2.1%-2.5% (10Yr) and 2.1%-2.65% (30Yr) range and are poised near the upper.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0827%) is holding higher but seems to lack strength. As mentioned yesterday, a strong rise above 7.1% is needed to avoid the fall to 7.02%-7%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0567%) has inched further higher. 7%-7.1% looks likely to be the range. A breakout on either side will determine the next move.

Dow has scope to test 35500 on the upside from where a corrective fall is possible. DAX is stuck in a narrow range but the outlook remains bullish to see a break on the upside. Nifty has entered into a crucial resistance zone that can halt the current rally. Nikkei can fall further on the downside if it fails to sustain above 32000. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Dow (35225.18, +0.47%) continues to move up. Our view of testing 35500 is intact. A corrective fall from the 35500-35550 region is a possibility.

DAX (16204.22, +0.59%) is stuck between 16000 and 16250. We retain our view of seeing a rise to 16400-16500 while the DAX sustains above 15950.

The rise to 20000 on the Nifty (19979.15, +0.74%) almost happened. 20100-20200 is crucial resistance that can halt the current rally and trigger a corrective fall to 19800-19500.

Nikkei (32360.48, -0.40%) has inch down further. Inability to hold above 32000 and rise above 32500 can lead to a fall towards 31700-31500.

Shanghai (3180.34, +0.34%) is coming down as expected. View remains bearish to see a test of 3150 or even 3125.

Brent and WTI are likely to be range bound for a while. Gold and Silver have declined contrary to our view and may come down further from here. Copper would remain bullish as long as it sustains above 3.82-3.75. Natural Gas has broken sharply above the resistance at 2.67 and looks bullish to target further upside.

Brent ($ 80.40) appears range bound within $ 81-$ 78. A breakout on either side of the range will determine if it will rise toward $ 83 or falls toward $ 76.

WTI ($ 76.39) is consolidating above $ 75. A range of $ 75-78 could hold for a while. A decisive breakout on either side of the range will decide if it will rise toward $ 80 or comes down to $ 72-$ 71.50.

Gold (1973) did not test 2000 as expected and instead has come down from a level of 1989.80. Support is now at 1970. Failure to sustain above it can drag it down to 1950-1940.

Silver (25.06) has fallen back from the level of 25.50 contrary to our view. While it stays below 25.50, a dip towards 24.50-24.30 can be seen. This may negate the chances of seeing a rise towards 26-26.30.

Copper (3.8525) remains higher above 3.80. Support is now at 3.82-3.75. While above these levels, the view would remain bullish for a rise towards 3.95.

Natural Gas (2.7470) has risen sharply towards 2.8, breaking above the resistance at 2.67. View is now bullish to see a further rise towards 2.9-3.0. Support is at 2.68-2.64.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -23 …Expected -26 …Previous -24

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous3.2

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 16.5K …Previous 16.5K …Actual 76.9K

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
Expn 10.3 …Expected -10.2 …Previous -13.7 …Actual -13.5

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 4162K …Expected 4220K …Previous 4300K …Actual 4160K