Dollar Index has risen well as expected and may test 101.20 before falling from there while Euro needs to sustain above 1.11 else may test 1.1050 before a bounce comes in. Aussie and Pound have supports near 0.67/0.6680 and 1.28/27 above which both can soon see a bounce towards 0.68/69 and 1.29/30. USDCNY can rise to 7.25 while above 7.15. EURJPY can target 158 while above 155. USDJPY has risen well above 141 and has scope to test 143-143.20 before coming off from there. USDRUB may test 92 soon and if it manages to break higher, 94/95 will again come into the picture. USDINR may trade within 81.90-82.20 while EURINR can hold above 91 to see a bounce back towards 92.

Dollar Index (101.017) has risen as expected and has immediate resistance near 101.20 which if holds can bring it down towards 100 or lower again in the next few sessions. Watch price action while below 101.20.

EURUSD (1.1128) needs to hold above 1.11 to move up again towards 1.12. Failure to hold above 1.11 can take it down towards 1.1050.

EURJPY (157.37) has also risen as per our expectation of seeing a rise towards 157/158. We may expect a dip from 158. An overall range of 155-158 could for the next few days.

Dollar-Yen (141.40) has risen sharply breaking above our expected 141. While above 141, there is scope for a rise towards 143-143.20 before a reversal is seen towards 138 again for he medium term.

USDCNY (7.1861) has immediate support at 7.15 and while that holds, the pair can rise targeting 7.25 on he upside soon. Only a break below 7.15, if seen will target 7.10/7.05 on the downside. For now view is ranged to bullish while above 7.15.

Pound (1.2862) has immediate support at 1.28 and then lower near 1.27 which are expected to hold in the near term and produce a bounce towards 1.29-1.30 in the medium term.

Aussie (0.6734) has support near 0.67-0.6680 which is likely to hold and produce a bounce towards 0.68/0.69 in the next couple of weeks.

USDRUB (90.9760) has moved up well and while above immediate support at 89 and can re-test 92 soon. It would then be crucial to see if the pair attempts to rise above 92 for the medium term targeting 94/95 on the upside.

USDINR (82.0388) traded within 81.90-82.20 for the whole of last week, giving no clarity of further direction. Unless we see a breakout on either side, it would be difficult to project which way the spot would move. Hence we keep the range of 81.90-82.20 intact for now.

EURINR (91.2895) could face decent support near 91 which if holds, can potentially take the pair up towards 92 again for a brief time. On the downside, visible trend support is at 90.

The US Treasury yields remain stable. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to move further higher. The US Fed meeting outcome on Wednesday could cause volatility in the market. We will have to wait and watch. The yields could remain stable until then. The German yields can oscillate up and down within their respective ranges. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have to breach their immediate resistances to become bullish and rise further.

The US 10Yr (3.84%) and 30Yr (3.91%) yields remain stable. We reiterate that the 10Yr has to sustain above 3.8% to move up to 4% and avoid the fall to 3.6%. The 30Yr can rise to 4% while it sustains above 3.85%.

The German 10Yr (2.46%) and the 30Yr (2.48%) yields have dipped slightly. We repeat that the yields can oscillate up and down within their 2.1%-2.5% (10Yr) and 2.1%-2.65% (30Yr) range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0784%) is struggling to breach 7.1%. While below 7.1%, a dip to 7.05%-7% is possible and the rise to 7.2% cannot happen.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0618%) on the other hand is holding higher. However, a sustained rise past 7.1% is needed to become convincingly bullish and get a rise towards 7.2%.

Dow is stable below its crucial resistance. Need to see if it breaks above it or not. DAX looks mixed and remains stuck in a narrow range of 16000 and 16250. Nifty may come down further it it fails to bounce back from current levels. Nikkei has bounced back as the support at 32000 has held well. Shanghai has scope to test 3200 on the upside.

Dow (35227.69, +0.01%) remained stable below its 35500-35550 resistance. Failure to breach 35550 can trigger a correction to 34800-34600.

DAX (16177.22, -0.17%) looks mixed and remains stuck between 16000 and 16250. A breakout on either side will determine whether it can rise to 16400-16500 or will fall to 15800-15700.

Nifty (19745, -1.17%) fell sharply on Friday. Need to watch if it is bouncing back today and keep the chances alive of testing 20100-20200 or will it fall to 19500 and lower from here itself.

Nikkei (32652.55, +1.08%) has bounced back sharply above 32500 as the support at 32000 has held well. A test of 33000 looks likely from here. Thereafter a break above 33000 is needed to move up towards 33500-33800.

Shanghai (3175.24, +0.24%) came down to 3151 in line with expectation and has bounced back from there. If the bounce sustains above 3150, a rise towards 3200 is possible.

Brent and WTI have risen towards their upper end of the range. Need to see if the crude prices are able to break on the upside or continue to be range bound for a few more sessions. Gold and Silver looks vulnerable to decline further from here. Copper appears range bound. Natural Gas is facing rejections from 3.8.

Brent ($ 80.67) has risen towards the upper end of the $ 81-$ 78 range. A strong break above $ 81 is needed to open doors towards $ 83 or higher.

WTI ($ 76.70) has risen towards the upper end of the $ 78-75 range. A decisive break on the upside could take it higher towards $ 80.

Gold (1962.40) has broken below the support at 1970. While this break sustains, it can come down further to 1950-1940.

Silver (24.84) continues to dip. A fall towards 24.50-24 looks likely while it remains below 25.

Copper (3.8220) appears range bound. A range of 3.75/3.77-3.90 could persist for some time.

Natural Gas (2.6910) is facing rejections from 2.8. Immediate support is at 2.67-2.60. While it sustains above 2.60, we can expect a range of 2.60-2.80 to hold for some time before rising towards 2.9-3.0.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY:
—————–
23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -23 …Expected -26 …Previous -24 …Actual -30

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn 4.6 …Expected 3.5 …Previous 3.2 …Actual 3.3