Dollar Index trades higher and may continue to rise towards 102.50 before coming off while Euro can also fall to 1.0950-1.09 before reversing higher. Aussie can test 0.6650-0.66 while and Pound can test 1.2730-1.27 before moving up again contrary to our expectation of seeing an upmove. USDCNY can trade within 7.12-7.18/20 while USDRUB has fallen back below 92.50 to retain the range of 90-92.50. EURJPY is headed towards 158 while USDJPY can rise towards 143-143.20. EURINR looks bullish above support near 90. USDINR may move up while above 82.20

Dollar Index (102.03) has risen as expected and could be headed towards 102.50 from where a rejection can be seen while EURUSD (1.0983) can decline to test 1.0950-1.0900 in the next few sessions before reversing higher.

EURJPY (156.58) continues to rise towards 158 while Dollar-Yen (142.57) has moved up as expected and could test 143-143.20 which could be a decent resistance in the near term. A sustained break above 143.20, if seen would be further bullish towards 146. Watch price action near 143.20 on USDJPY.

USDCNY (7.1649) seems to be holding well above 7.12 and could trade within the narrow range of 7.12-7.18/20 for the next few sessions.

Pound (1.2819) has scope to test 1.2730 on the downside before reversing higher. While the Dollar Index trades higher, Pound could fall over the next couple of sessions.

Aussie (0.6695) is falling from 0.6750 and has scope to test 0.6650-0.6620 in the next few sessions before reversing higher. Overall view is upwards while above 0.66.

USDRUB (91.6463) tested 92.4930 but could not sustain above 92 for long and has fallen back from there. Immediate support is seen near 90-89 which can be tested but the pair could still attempt to rise above 92+ soon. For now, we may see a range of 90-92.50 for the next 1-2 sessions.

USDINR (82.25) traded within 82.2925-82.2075 yesterday without giving any further directional clarity. While the Dollar trades higher, there can be some scope for a higher USDINR in the near term.

EURINR (90.3648) has dipped over the last couple of sessions. A further test of support at 90 can be possible from where a bounce can be expected.

The US Treasury and the German yields remain stable. Both need a strong follow-through rise from current levels to gain momentum and rise further. Else they can fall back. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continue to move up and are keeping up our bullish view intact to see more rise from here.

The US 10Yr (3.96%) and the 30Yr (4.01%) yields remained stable. We repeat that a sustained rise above 4% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr) is needed for the yield to rise more. Else they can fall to 3.85%-3.8% (10Yr) and 3.9%-3.85% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and the 30Yr (2.56%) yields are unchanged. The 10Yr at the upper end of its 2.1%-2.5% range has to breach 2.5% to move higher and avoid a fall back. The 30Yr has room to rise within its 2.1%-2.65% range.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1746%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1611%) yields continue to move up. Our bullish view is intact to see 7.2% on the upside on both the 5Yr and 10Yr.

Dow needs to break above 35550 to avoid a corrective fall from here. DAX has dipped but the near term supports are likely to hold and keep our bullish view intact. Nifty has risen well but needs to overcome the hurdle at 19800 to avoid a fall back again. Nikkei remains higher and has room to rise further from here. Shanghai is bullish while it sustains above 3250.

Dow (35559.53, +0.28%) continues to hover around the 35550 resistance. A strong follow-through rise from here can avoid the chances of a correction to 34800 and will take the Dow up to 36000 straight away.

DAX (16446.83, -0.14%) has dipped. But with support in the 19250-16150 region, the bias is bullish to see 16800-17000.

Nifty (19753.80, +0.55%) has risen back well. A strong rise above 19800 will negate the chances of seeing 19500-19400 and will take the index up to 20000-20200.

Nikkei (33334.05, +0.49%) remains higher and has scope to rise towards 33750-34000 in the near term.

Shanghai (3293.22, +0.07%) has come down from yesterday’s high of 3322. Support is at 3250. While it sustain above 3250, there is potential for a rise towards 3400.

Brent is attempting to rise above $ 85. Need to see if it sustains above $ 85 or not. WTI needs a break above $ 82 to strengthen the momentum further else a fall back cannot be avoided. Gold and Copper are attempting to break above their resistance at 2000 and 4.00 respectively. Silver has scope to test 25.30 on the upside. Natural Gas is to remain range bound for some time.

Brent ($ 85.14) is attempting to break above $ 85. Only a sustained break above $ 85 could pave the way towards $ 87-89. Else a fall back towards $ 82-81 cannot be negated.

WTI ($ 81.55) tested $ 82 as expected and has dipped from there. If $ 82 holds, a fall back towards $ 79-78 can be seen. Only a break higher could see a test of $ 84.

Gold (1998.30) rose to a high of 2011 yesterday and has declined a bit from there. A sustained break above 2000 could take it higher towards 2025-2035.

Silver (24.79) has risen well, breaking above 24.65. A test of 25.30 looks likely. A further break above it is needed to move up towards 26-26.20.

Copper (4.0055) is attempting to break above the resistance at 4.00. A sustained break above 4.00 could see a target of 4.10-4.13-4.17 in the near term.

Natural Gas (2.6510) looks ranged and is likely to trade within 2.81-2.50 for the near term.

23:30 5:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected 2.6% …Previous 2.6%

0:30 6:00 JP PMI
Expn 49.6 …Expected 49.4 …Previous 49.8

1:45 7:15 CN PMI
Expn – …Expected 50.0 …Previous 50.5

4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.35% …Previous 4.10%

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 58.4 …Expected 58.3 …Previous 57.8

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected 42.7 …Previous 43.4

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn 45.1 …Expected 45.0 …Previous 46.5

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 45.6 …Expected 46.9 …Previous 46.0

14:00 19:30 CA PMI
Expn 48.3 …Expected – …Previous 48.8

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
9:00 14:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.2% …Previous -0.1% …Actual 0.3%