Dollar Index trades higher and failure to fall from 102.80 immediately can take it up towards 103-103.50/80 and drag down Euro to 1.0850. For now Euro is likely to hold above 1.09. Pound could hold above 1.2675 while Aussie could fall towards 0.65/64. USDCNY can trade within 7.12-7.18/20 while USDRUB looks bullish for a rise to 96. EURJPY is headed towards 155 while below 158. USDJPY seems o be holding below 143.50 but can rise towards 144+ on continued Dollar strength. EURINR looks sideways to bullish above support near 90. USDINR may move up while above 82.50 to test crucial resistance at 82.80 before reversing sharply from there. Immediate range of 82.50-82.80 may hold.

Dollar Index (102.597) tested 102.78 before coming off from there. Although the resistance on the daily candle chart seems to have been met, on the weekly charts there is still some scope for a rise to 103.50-103.80 before a final reversal is seen towards 101 or lower in the medium term. To negate such a rise, the index will have to fall below 102 immediately and sustain lower.

EURUSD (1.0940) tested 1.0917 before bouncing to current levels. Immediate support at 1.09 is likely to hold for the medium term and produce a bounce towards 1.10 and higher eventually. A break below 1.09, if seen could be for a brief while and may extend to 1.0890-1.0850. Euro could be bullish in the second half of August.

EURJPY (156.72) has dipped, holding well below resistance at 158 and can fall back to 155 in the next couple of sessions.

Dollar-Yen (143.26) seems to be attempting a rise but finds it difficult to move above 143.30/50 just now. There could be some chances of a rise to 145-146 in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1872) could dip from 1.20 to fall back towards 7.12/10. Failure to decline from 7.20 can be bullish for a rise towards 7.22/25 in the medium term.

Pound (1.2714) seems to e holding above 1.2675 for now which if holds can take Pound towards 1.28. A break below 1.2675, if seen again would take it down towards 1.2650-1.26 eventually.

Aussie (0.6533) has broken below 0.66 and if the fall sustains, we may expect a fall to 0.65/64 before a sharp reversal is seen.

USDRUB (94.0408) has risen exactly as expected. The pair is in a strong uptrend and may soon target 96 on the upside. View continues to remain bullish for the near term.

USDINR (82.58) rose to test 82.6175 yesterday. The pair may test resistance near 82.80 from where a fall looks possible in the next few sessions. Immediate view is bullish to 82.80.

EURINR (90.511) looks stable just now but may hold above 90 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have surged after the Fitch Ratings’ downgrade. The yields have room to move further higher from here. The German yields will need a strong follow-through rise from here to move up and avoid a fall back. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down as expected. But supports can limit the downside and take the yields higher again eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.09%) and the 30Yr (4.18%) yields have surged. The 10Yr can target 4.2% on a break above 4.1%. The 30Yr on the other hand can test 4.3% while the break above 4.1% sustains.

The German 10Yr (2.52%) and the 30Yr (2.61%) yields have dipped slightly. The 10Yr can rise to 2.6% while it remains above 2.5%. The 30Yr has to breach 2.65% to move further higher. We will have to wait and watch.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1516%) has come down. But supports at 7.14% and 7.12% can limit the downside and take the yield up to 7.2% in the near-term.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1279%) yield has dipped but has support at 7.12% and 7.10%. We can expect the 5Yr to reverse higher towards 7.2% eventually going forward.

Dow and DAX have fallen sharply and look likely to dip further before a reversal is seen. Nikkei and Shanghai have inched down further but the support at 32000 and 3250/3225 respectively is likely to limit the downside. Nifty can rise back while above the support at 19400.

Dow (35282.52, -0.98%) failed to sustain above 35550 and has declined sharply. A fall below 35200 can drag it down to 34900-34800 and then a reversal is possible.

DAX (16020.02, -1.36%) has declined below the 16150 support. A test of 15800 looks likely before a reversal is seen.

Nifty (19526.55, -1.05%) fell sharply but the support at 19400 has held well. While above 19400, there are good chances to rise back towards 19800. Lower supports are at 19300 and 19200.

Nikkei (32349.72, -1.09%) has come down further below 32500. Next support is seen at 32000. If that holds, we can expect a broad sideways range of 32000-33500 to persist for some time.

Shanghai (3258.59, -0.10%) has declined further but has immediate support at 3250-3225. While that holds, it may bounce back towards 3300.

Commodities have fallen sharply. Crude prices have fallen back sharply but have immediate support at $ 82.70 (Brent) and $ 79 (WTI). We need to see if the support holds or not. Gold, Silver, and Copper have down further but the downside could be limited to 1970/1960, 23.50/23, and 3.82/3.80 respectively. Natural Gas has broken below the lower end of its range and is likely to fall further in the near term.

Brent ($ 83.36) has fallen sharply from a high of $ 85.98. Trendline support is seen near $ 82.70. Failure to hold above it can be further bearish for a fall towards $ 81-80.

WTI ($ 79.64) couldn’t sustain the break above $ 82 and has fallen sharply from a high of $ 82.42. Immediate support is at $ 79. Inability to hold above it can see a further dip to $ 77.

Gold (1973.20) has declined further towards the support at 1970-1960. If that holds, a break above 2000 and a rise towards 2025 or higher can be seen. Failure to sustain above 1960 can see a test of 1950-1940 before reversing back from there.

Silver (23.80) has broken below the support at 24. While below 24, the view is bearish to see a fall towards 23.50-23 before a bounce back can happen.

Copper (3.8530) has fallen further but could get some support at 3.82-3.80. Only a strong break below 3.80 is needed to confirm further bearishness towards 3.70.

Natural Gas (2.4820) has declined below the lower end of the 2.50-2.81 range. It may come down to 2.35 before a reversal is possible.

1:30 7:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 10.5A$ …Previous 11.8A$

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 56.5 …Expected 59.9 …Previous 58.5

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn – …Expected 1.5 …Previous 1.7

11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – …Expected 5.25% …Previous 5.00%

11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – …Expected 7-0-2 …Previous 7-0-2

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
22:30 4:00 AU PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -19.8 …Actual -25.6

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn 45.5 …Expected 44.2 …Previous 44.9 …Actual 38.5

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 195K …Previous 455K …Actual 324K