Dollar Index has dipped slightly but may move up again if we see a better NFP data release today. Euro has moved up but can trade below 1.10 for a while. Pound and Aussie are holding above 1.26 and 0.65 for now and could lead to a short rise in the next few sessions. USDCNY can trade within 7.12-7.18/20. EURJPY may trade within 155-158 while USDJPY has fallen from 144 and can now test 142 before again moving up. EURINR looks sideways to bullish above support near 90. USDINR tested 82.80 but it would be important to see if it falls from here or moves up further to test 83.

Dollar Index (102.40) has come off after testing 102.84 and may extend down to 102 or lower. However, watch US NFP data release due today which is expected to outperform market consensus and could bring in some strength in the Dollar again.

EURUSD (1.0956) has moved up slightly while support near 1.09 holds well. We may expect the rise to continue towards 1.10 before a pause is seen.

EURJPY (156.09) may continue to trade within 155-158 region for now.

Dollar-Yen (142.48) held well below 144 and has come down on Dollar weakness over the past 2-sessions. The pair may test 142.00 but could again bounce back in early sessions of next week. Overall broad range of 144-141 can be seen in the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.1817) seems to be stuck within 7.12-7.18/20 region and unless a break on either side is seen, the range may continue to hold.

Pound (1.2733) fell to 1.2621 yesterday but ahs bounced back sharply from there. While above support at 1.26, view is likely to be bullish for the near term.

Aussie (0.6567) has risen slightly. We may expect trade above 0.65 for sometime before a possible test of crucial support at 0.64 is seen in the medium term.

USDRUB (93.23) has come off from 94.74 and can test 92 before again bouncing back to higher levels. In the next 2-weeks we may see a test of 94/96 on the upside.

USDINR (82.7275) tested 82.81 yesterday before closing lower at 82.7275. It is crucial to watch if the pair holds below 82.80 and falls off or if it manages to move higher towards 83.

EURINR (90.6615) has risen a bit while above 90 and may see a slow rise towards 91.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. They have room to rise further and then the price action will need a close watch. The German yields have risen sharply and are looking bullish. They can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have reversed higher as expected and are looking bullish. They have more room to rise in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.15%) and the 30Yr (4.26%) continues to move up. 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.3% (30Yr) can be tested. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.

The German 10Yr (2.60%) and the 30Yr (2.68%) yields have risen to 2.6% and can extend the rise to 2.8% if the momentum continues. The 30Yr has risen above 2.65% and while this sustains it can move up to 2.85%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1981%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1859%) have risen sharply and have come near 7.2% as expected. The 10Yr car target 7.3%-7.35% and the 5Yr has potential to reach 7.4%-7.45%.

Dow and DAX have declined further and look bearish to come down more from here. Nikkei can remain range bound if it sustains above 32000. Shanghai has rebounded as the support at 3250 has held well. Nifty has to sustain above 19300 to ease the downside pressure.

Dow (35215.89, -0.19%) has dipped further. It is likely to test 34900-34800 and then possibly reverse higher again.

DAX (15893.38, -0.79%) tested 15800 as expected. It looks vulnerable to break 15800 and see a deeper fall to 15500.

Nifty (19381.65, -0.74%) extended the fall to test 19300. Failure to sustain above 19300 can take it further lower to 19200 and even 19000. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

Nikkei (32158.07, -0.00%) has managed to sustain above 32000. While above 32000, we expect a range of 32000-33500 to persist for some time. Only a break lower could see a fall to 31500.

Shanghai (3284.26, +0.12%) has bounced back as the support at 3250 has held very well as expected. While above 3250, a rise towards 3350-3400 looks possible.

Most of the commodities have rebounded. Crude prices have bounced back sharply as the near term supports have held well. Gold remains stable above the support at 1960 ahead of the US NFP data today. Silver downside seems limited to 23. Copper has risen back well and looks bullish in the near term. Natural Gas has bounced back but is likely to face resistance at 2.62.

Brent ($ 85.19) has risen back sharply above $ 85 from a low of $ 82.37. A sustained break above $ 86 can lead to a rise towards $ 88-89. Support is now at $ 83 and $ 82.

WTI ($ 81.68) too has bounced back towards $ 82 as the support at $ 79 has held well. A sustained break above $ 82 is needed to see a target of $ 84-85.

Gold (1971.20) remains stable above the support at 1960. While 1960 holds strong, a rise back towards 2000 or higher can be seen.

Silver (23.63) remains lower and is likely to test 23 before a bounce back can happen.

Copper (3.8960) has rebounded as the support at 3.82 has held well. While above 3.82-3.80, there is scope for a rise towards 3.95-4.00.

Natural Gas (2.5560) has bounced back from a low of 2.4570. But could face immediate resistance at 2.62. A break above it is needed to avoid the danger of falling towards 2.40-2.35.

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.0%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 402K …Expected 200K …Previous 209K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.5% …Expected 3.6% …Previous 3.6%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.4 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.4%

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
1:30 7:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 10.5A$ …Previous 10.5A$ …Actual 11.32A$

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 56.5 …Expected 59.9 …Previous 58.5 …Actual 62.3

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn – …Expected 1.5 …Previous 1.7 …Actual 1.6

11:00 16:30 BOE Mtg
Expn – …Expected 5.25% …Previous 5.00% …Actual 5.25%

11:00 16:30 UK BOE Minutes
Expn – …Expected 7-0-2 …Previous 7-0-2 …Actual 8-01