Dollar Index may hold above 101.75 and move up towards 102.50 or slightly higher while Euro could fall from immediate resistance near 1.1020 and fall towards 1.0940. Pound could trade within 1.26-1.28 while Aussie can rise towards 0.6650 while above 0.65. USDCNY can test 7.20 and a break higher will take it up further towards 7.25. USDRUB has risen sharply and can test 97-98 soon. EURJPY can trade within 155-158. USDJPY can move up while above 141. EURINR can trade within 90.50-91.50 for sometime while USDINR can see crucial resistance near 82.80/90 which if holds can drag the pair down towards 82.60/50.

Dollar Index (102.10) seems to be holding above 101.75 and has scope to rise to 102.50 or slightly higher in the next few sessions.

EURUSD (1.0998) came off earlier from resistance near 1.1040 on Friday and now seems to be holding below revised near term trend resistance near 1.1020 below which there is scope for a fall towards 1.0960-1.0940 over today and tomorrow.

EURJPY (156.08) trades near the lower end of the 158-155 region and may move up slowly while Dollar-Yen (141.95) can move up while above 141 and target 143.

USDCNY (7.1904) has moved up well. A break above 7.20 will take it higher towards 7.25.

Pound (1.2741) could trade within 1.26-1.28 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6586) has been rising from above support levels at 0.65. There is scope for a rise towards 0.6620-0.6650.

USDRUB (95.8620) has risen well and can target 97-98 before a corrective dip is seen.

USDINR (82.8450) moved up well on Friday but we are looking at crucial resistance near 82.80/90 region from where a corrective dip looks likely towards 82.60/50.

EURINR (90.9479) can trade within 90.50-91.50 for the next few sessions.

The US Treasury yields have come down after the NFP data released on Friday failed to meet the market expectation. A strong bounce from here can still take the yields higher going forward and avoid further fall. The German yields have come down. Failure to rise back immediately can put them back into their sideways range. The 10Yr and 5Yr have dipped. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader bullish view intact.

The US 10Yr (4.05%) and the 30Yr (4.20%) have come off sharply. The 10Yr has tested 4.2%. If it sustains above 4%, it can break 4.2% and extend the rise to 4.3%. That will avoid it falling back to 3.85%-3.8%. The 30Yr on the other hand has room to test 4.3%.

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and the 30Yr (2.62%) yields have come down failing to sustain above 2.6% and 2.65% respectively. The 30Yr is retaining its 2.1%-2.65% range. Failure to rise back above 2.6% can put the 10Yr also back into its 2.1%-2.5% range again.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1915%) has dipped slightly. But support at 7.18% and 7.14% can limit the downside and keep the broader bullish view intact to breach 7.2% and rise to 7.3%-7.35%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1719%) has support at 7.15% and 7.1%. While above these supports, the bias is bullish to see a rise to 7.4%-7.45% in the coming weeks.

Dow and Nikkei have scope to test their immediate supports before a reversal is seen. DAX and Nifty needs a strong break above 16000 and 19700 to negate the danger of falling again. Shanghai is range bound between 3250-3325.

Dow (35065.62, -0.43%) is coming down towards 34900-34800 as expected. The downside can extend even up to 34500 before a reversal is seen.

DAX (15915.86, +0.37%) has held well above 15800. A strong follow-through rise above 16000 from here can take it up to 16200-16400 again. It will also negate the danger of falling to 15500.

Nifty (19517, +0.7%) has bounced but will need to breach 19700 to negate the fall to 19200-19000 and rise back to 20000.

Nikkei (32075.25, -0.36%) is attempting to break below 32000. A test of 31500 looks likely before a bounce back can happen.

Shanghai (3269.99, -0.55%) looks range bound within 3250-3325. A break on either side of the range will decide if it will rise towards 3350 or falls towards 3225.

Crude prices have scope to test their key resistance in the near term. Gold can rise towards 2000 while it stays above 1955. Silver and Natural gas have to break above 24 and 2.62 to avoid a fall back again. Copper looks range bound above 3.80.

Brent ($ 86.18) remains higher above $ 85. View is bullish for a rise towards $ 88-89 while above $ 85.

WTI ($ 82.78) sustains higher above $ 82. While above $ 82, there is scope for a rise towards $ 84-85 before a reversal is seen.

Gold (1975.70) is attempting to break above 1980. A rise towards 2000 is possible while it remains above 1960-1955.

Silver (23.63) has bounced back from a low of 23.28 seen on Friday. It has to surpass 24 to avoid a fall back towards 23 again and to move up towards 24.50.

Copper (3.8525) appears range bound above 3.82-3.80. We can expect a range of 3.80-3.95 to hold for the near term.

Natural Gas (2.5980) looks stable below the resistance at 2.62. A strong break above it is needed to move up towards 2.8. Else it can fall back towards 2.4 and trade between 2.62/2.60-2.40 for some time.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY:
—————–
9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.6% …Actual -0.3%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 451K …Expected 205K …Previous 185K …Actual 187K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.5% …Expected 3.6% …Previous 3.6% …Actual 3.5%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.4 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.5%

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 24.6K …Previous 59.9K …Actual -6.4K