Two crucial data watch today: RBI monetary policy statement and US CPI. The Dollar Index holds steady within 101.75-102.85/103 region while Euro may trade within 1.1020-1.0910. Pound and Aussie continue to trade within 1.26-1.28 and 0.65-0.66 region. USDJPY is moving up towards 144 while EURJPY can face resistance near 158. USDCNY has dipped a bit but has fair chances for a rise to 7.25 while above 7.18/20. USDRUB could see trade within 98-94 for the next few sessions. EURINR can dip to 90.50/40 before again bouncing back. USDINR can trade within 82.70/60-82.90 region.

Dollar Index (102.48) looks stable around 102.50 within a narrow range of 101.75-102.85, likely to hold just now. It would be crucial to watch the US inflation data release today especially after a softer US NFP earlier this month.

EURUSD (1.0976) may continue trade within 1.1020-1.0910 over the next few sessions.

EURJPY (157.87) is slowly headed towards 158 from where a dip can be seen. Sustained break above 158, if seen would be bullish towards 159/160.

Dollar-Yen (143.85) continues to move up towards 144. A break above 14 needs to be seen and sustained for further upmove towards 145/146.

USDCNY (7.21) has dipped slightly but has fair scope of seeing a rise towards 7.25 soon.

Pound (1.2714) has dipped well from 1.28 and could fall towards 1.2650 in the next few sessions.

Aussie (0.6534) may trade within 0.65-0.66 region.

USDRUB (96.8682) may pause for a few sessions below 98 to trade within 98-94 region before resuming the upmove.

USDINR (82.82) trades within 82.90-82.70/60 region. Watch for any volatility post the RBI policy statement today.

EURINR (90.9234) looks stable to ranged within 90.40-91.30.

The US Treasury yields remain stable ahead of the US inflation data release today. They have to bounce back from current levels to avoid further fall and keep the outlook bullish going forward. The German yields have bounced within their range. They have to breach the upper end of their range to move further higher. Else they can continue to oscillate within the range. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable and are holding well above their supports. The bias is bullish to see a strong rise going forward. The RBI monetary policy meeting outcome is important to watch today.

The US 10Yr (4.01%) and the 30Yr (4.18%) yields remain stable. A fall below 4% can drag it to 3.9%-3.85% and will reduce/delay the chances of it rising past 4.2%. The 30Yr can dip to 4.1%-4% while below 4.2%.

The German 10Yr (2.49%) and the 30Yr (2.58%) yields bounced back. They have to rise above 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.65% (30Yr) to strengthen the bullish case to see more rise. Else, the 2.1%-2.5% (10Yr) and 2.1%-2.65% (30Yr) range can remain intact.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1745%) and 5Yr GOI (7.1519%) remained stable and are holding well above their supports. While above 7.1%, both the 10Yr and 5Yr have potential to breach 7.2% and rise to 7.3%-7.35% (10Yr) and 7.4%-7.45% (5Yr) in the coming weeks.

Dow is stuck between 35000 and 35500. DAX and Nifty have risen but need to overcome the resistance at 16000 and 19700 to avoid a deeper fall from here. Nikkei will remain bullish while above the support at 32500-31500. Shanghai has rebounded but has to rise past 3250 to avoid a fall again.

Dow (35123.36, -0.54%) is stuck between 35000 and 35500 over the last few days. A break below 35000 can take it down to 34800 and even 34500 before a reversal is seen. It’s a wait and watch.

DAX (15852.58, +0.49%) has risen but will need to rise past 16000 decisively to negate the chances of seeing 15500 on the downside.

Nifty (19632.55, +0.32%) recovered sharply from the low of 19467.50 yesterday. But a sustained rise past 19700 is needed to open the doors to see 20000 and avoid falling back to 19200-19000.

Nikkei (32264.11, +0.19%) is getting good support at 32000. As long as it sustains above 32000-31500, there is a potential for a break above 32500 and a rise towards 33500.

Shanghai (3247.36, +0.09%) has rebounded slightly from the level of 3240. But it has to break above 3250 to rise towards 3275 and to avoid coming down towards 3225.

Crude prices have entered into their key resistance zone which can halt the current rally and produce a fall back from there. Gold, Silver, and Copper remains lower and have scope to test their immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Natural gas has surged towards its key resistance at 3.00. Need to see if it breaks above 3.00 or not. Watch the price action of commodities as the outcome of US CPI today could lead to sharp volatility in the market.

Brent ($ 87.40) has risen sharply towards the resistance at $ 88 as expected. While $ 88-89 holds, a dip towards $ 85-$ 83 can be seen.

WTI ($ 84.26) has entered into the crucial resistance zone of $ 84-$ 85. If $ 85 holds, a fall back towards $ 81-80 can be seen.

Gold (1950.10) continues to fall. A test of 1940-1930 looks likely before a reversal is seen.

Silver (22.77) remains lower below 23. View is bearish to see a test 22 before a bounce back can happen. On the upside, resistance is at 23-23.10.

Copper (3.7890) is consolidating around 3.8. A fall towards 3.70-3.65 is possible while it remains below the resistance at 3.85.

Natural Gas (2.9610) has risen sharply towards 3.0. A strong break above it could pave the way towards 3.4-3.5. Else it can come down to 2.8.

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75%

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.2 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2%

DATA YESTERDAY:
—————–
1:30 7:00 CN CPI (YoY)
Expn – …Expected -0.5 …Previous 0.0 …Actual -0.3

1:30 7:00 CN PPI
Expn – …Expected -4.0 …Previous -5.4 …Actual -4.4