Dollar Index has fallen sharply from resistance at 104 pulling up Euro from support at 1.08. Pound remains ranged within 1.26-1.28 while Aussie can trade within 0.64-0.65 for a while. USDJPY and EURJPY have scope to dip to 144 and 157/156. USDCNY is ranged within 7.25-7.32 but has scope to rise towards 7.35/40 eventually. USDRUB can target 95-96 while above 91.60/92.00. EURINR is bullish above 89. USDINR can extend fall to 82.50/30 today.

Dollar Index (103.399) fell sharply from resistance at 104 and while that holds, the index can have scope to fall towards 103-102.50 in the near term. That said, support at 1.08 has held well on the EURUSD (1.0864) which is moving towards 1.09-1.0930/50.

EURJPY (157.55) has scope to fall to 157/156 while below 158. Else the pair will have to move up sharply above 158 to slowly move higher towards 159-160 again in the medium term. For now view is bearish below 158.

Dollar-Yen (145.01) has fallen sharply along with the fall in the Dollar Index. The pair can test 144 before pausing a bit. There is a possible double top formation on the near term charts which is holds can suggest bearishness for the coming weeks.

USDCNY (7.2825) can range within 7.25-7.30/32 for now.

Pound (1.2714) continues to range within 1.26-1.28 and unless a break on either side is seen, it is difficult to project further movement from here.

Aussie (0.6474) may dip while below 0.65 within an overall uptrend. The immediate downside could be limited to 0.64.

USDRUB (93.99) has moved up but may trade within 96-92 region for the near term.

USDINR (82.69) fell sharply yesterday and could extend its fall today towards 82.50/30 thus negating a rise to 83 or higher in the near term.

EURINR (89.7026) moved down to test 89.30 before bouncing from there. The pair is likely to hold above 89 in the next few sessions.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down sharply and are on a corrective fall. The market is waiting to hear the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium tomorrow. Supports are there to limit the downside on the US and German yields and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr have declined below their intermediate support. Further fall is possible before the uptrend resumes.

The US 10Yr (4.20%) and the 30Yr (4.27%) yields have come down sharply. This is a correction within the broader. 4.1% (10Yr) and 4% (30Yr) are immediate supports which will need a close watch. The big picture is bullish to see 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) on the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.51%) and the 30Yr (2.62%) yields have declined sharply but have supports near current levels. A reversal is possible again to keep the broader uptrend intact to see 3%-3.1% on both the 10Yr and 30Yr.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1927%) has come down below 7.2%. It can test the next 7.15%-7.13% zone and then resume the upmove targeting 7.35% on the upside eventually.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1795%) on the other hand looks vulnerable to see 7.13%-7.10% while it sustains below 7.2%. There after a fresh rise to 7.45% can happen.

Dow Jones is managing to hold above 34250 but needs to break above 34600 to reduce the downside pressure. DAX needs to break above 16000 to avoid the danger of falling again. Nifty can trade sideways while below 19500. Nikkei has risen above 32000 to target its next resistance. Shanghai remains bearish for the near term.

Dow (34472.98, +0.54%) is managing to hold above 34250. A strong rise past 34600 will reduce the danger of the fall to 34100-34000 and can take the Dow up to 35000.

DAX (15728.41, +0.15%) is holding higher. But as mentioned yesterday, while below 16000, the chances are still alive to see one more leg of fall to 15200. It is a wait and watch.

Nifty (19444, +0.25%) continues to oscillate within its 19250-19500 range. A strong close above 19500 is needed to reduce the chances of the fall to 19200-19000 and move up to 19600 and higher straight away.

Nikkei (32172.50, +0.40%) has risen above the resistance at 32000. While this break sustain, it can move up towards 32500.

Shanghai (3074.24, -0.14%) continues to dip. View remains bearish for a fall to 3050-3000 before a reversal can happen.

Brent and WTI have bounced back slightly from yesterday’s fall but may continue to dip further while below the resistance at $ 85 (Brent) and $ 80-80.50 (WTI) respectively. Gold, Silver and Copper continues to rise and have scope to rally further in the near term. Natural gas has broken below 2.5 but is likely to get support at 2.42-2.40.

Brent ($ 82.92) tested $ 82 yesterday in line with expectations and has bounced back from there. Immediate resistance is at $ 85. While that holds, it may continue to fall towards $ 80.

WTI ($ 78.47) fell to a low of $ 77.62 yesterday and has risen back from there. Immediate resistance is at $ 80-80.50, while below which, there is scope for a fall towards $ 77-76 or even lower to $ 75.

Gold (1947.70) has risen sharply towards 1950 as expected. It may break above 1950 and rise towards 1980-1990

Silver (24.32) has surged breaking above the interim resistance at 24. While above 24, view is bullish for a rise towards 25.

Copper (3.7990) continues to rise. Outlook is bullish to see a rise towards 3.90 in the near term.

Natural Gas (2.47) has declined below 2.5. While this break sustains, it can come down towards 2.42-2.40 before a bounce back can happen.

12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 1.5% …Expected -4.1% … Previous 4.7%

DATA YESTERDAY:
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14:00 19:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 675K …Expected 708K … Previous 697K …Actual 714K