Dollar Index has risen above 104 and unless a fall is seen immediately, it can target 105-106. Euro has broken below 1.08 and could aim for 1.0750-1.07 before a reversal is seen. Aussie and Pound also trade lower breaking below 0.64 and 1.26 respectively. They can fall further towards 0.63 and 1.25 in the near term. USDJPY looks bullish while EURJPY could be ranged within 156-158. USDCNY is ranged within 7.25-7.32 but has scope to rise towards 7.35/40 eventually. USDRUB can target 95-96 while above 91.60/92.00. EURINR has come down to 89 and unless an immediate bounce is seen it can fall further towards 88. USDINR can trade within 82.40-82.70-82.90 for the near term.

Dollar Index (104.19) has broken above the immediate resistance at 104 and this is crucial. If the index does not come down immediately, it could rally towards 105-106 on the upside.

EURUSD (1.0785) has also fallen sharply below 1.08 and if it does not rise back immediately, we might have to allow for a fall to 1.0750 or even 1.07 before the expected reversal takes place. Watch for a bounce back above 1.08 over early sessions next week else could be vulnerable to fall.

EURJPY (157.49) is ranged within 156-158 region and could remain so for now.

Dollar-Yen (146.02) has risen slightly and could move up to 147-148 if the Dollar Index continues to rise above 104.

USDCNY (7.2834) looks stable and could trade within 7.25-7.32 for now.

Pound (1.2569) has broken below the 1.26-1.28 range and could continue to fall towards 1.25. Immediate view is bearish below 1.26.

Aussie (0.6414) is falling towards 0.64 but needs to sustain trade above it to move up again from here else a break below 0.64 if seen can trigger a fall towards 0.63.

USDRUB (94.9724) trades within 92-96 region and could rise a bit in the next few sessions.

USDINR (82.5775) fell sharply yesterday to test 82.35 before rising to close higher. Immediate range of 82.40-82.70-82.90 could be possible within the broad 82-83 range that could hold for the rest of the month.

EURINR (89.10) needs to hold above 89 and move up else can be vulnerable to fall to 88 on the downside if it breaks and sustains below 89. Watch price action for the next few sessions.

The US Treasury yields have risen back. The broader outlook is bullish and there is room to rise more. Powell’s speech today at the Jackson Hole Symposium will need a close watch and it can cause volatility. The German yields remain stable. Supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr have bounced back but need to breach their immediate resistance to resume the uptrend. Else some more corrective fall can happen before the uptrend resumes.

The US 10Yr (4.24%) and the 30Yr (4.31%) yields have risen back again. As mentioned yesterday, 4.1% (10Yr) and 4% (30Yr) are good supports while above which the outlook is bullish to see 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) on the upside.

The German 10Yr (2.51%) and the 30Yr (2.61%) yields remain stable above their supports. We expect the yields to rise back and keep the broader uptrend intact. Both the yields can target 3%-3.1%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1963%) has to rise above 7.2% to move up to 7.35% straight away. Else a test of 7.15%-7.13% will still be possible before a fresh rise is seen.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1831%) has come down from 7.2266%. While below 7.2% the chances are high to see 7.13%-7.10% first before the rise to 7.45% happens.

Dow Jones has come down failing to break above 34600. Crucial support is at 34000. Need to see if Dow bounces back from 34000 or not. DAX too has come down, failing to rise above 16000. Nifty has come-off sharply from yesterday’s high and can fall more today. Nikkei is to remain range bound while below 32500. Shanghai remains bearish for a fall towards 3000 in the near term.

Dow (34099.42, -1.08%) has come down to 34000. Failure to sustain above 34000 can drag it down to 33850-33650

DAX (15621.49, -0.68%) has come down, failing to rise above 16000. This keeps our bearish view intact of seeing 15200 on the downside.

Nifty (19386.70, -0.29%) has come-off sharply from the high of 19584 and can fall more today. The chances are still alive to break 19250 and fall to 19200-19000.

Nikkei (31666.36, -1.92%) has fallen back from a high of 32297.91. While it remains below 32500, we can expect a sideways trade between 32500-31000 for some time.

Shanghai (3076.49, -0.19%) is heading down towards 3050. View remains bearish for a fall towards 3000 before a reversal can happen.

Brent and WTI are approaching their resistance at $ 84.50-85 (Brent) and $ 80 (WTI) respectively. If these resistance holds, a fall back to our expected level might be possible. Gold, Silver and Copper are lacking follow through rise but have near term support which will keep our bullish view intact. Natural has bounced back as the support at 2.42-2.40 has held well.

Brent ($ 83.64) is inching up towards $ 84 as it is getting support at $ 82. However, immediate resistance is at $ 84.50/$ 85. While below $ 85, there is scope for a fall towards $ 80.

WTI ($ 79.32) is moving up towards the resistance at $ 80. while that holds, a fall towards $ 77-76 or even lower to $ 75 cannot be negated. Any break higher can see a test of next resistance at $ 81.

Gold (1944.60) is lacking strength to rise above 1950. Immediate support is at 1940-1920, while above which, bias is positive for a break above 1950 and rise towards 1975-1980-1990 in the near term.

Silver (24.19) is facing rejections from 24.50. However, support is at 24. While that holds, our bullish view for a rise towards 25 will remain intact. Only a break below 24, if seen, can drag it down to 23.50.

Copper (3.7655) has fallen back from a high of 3.8125. Immediate support is at 3.73. If that holds, a bounce back towards 3.85-3.90 might be possible.

Natural Gas (2.6110) tested 2.4250 yesterday in line with expectations for fall to 2.42-2.40 and has bounced back from there. While above 2.42/2.40, view is bullish for a rise towards 2.8-3.0 in the coming weeks.

23:05 4:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -23 …Expected -29 …Previous -30

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 85.9 …Expected 86.8 …Previous 87.3

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 91.0 …Expected 89.8 …Previous 91.3

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 79.6 …Expected 83.8 … Previous 83.5

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
12:30 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 1.5% …Expected -4.1% … Previous 4.4% …Actual – 5.2%