Dollar Index and Euro can trade within 104.50-103.50 and 1.0750-1.0850 respectively. Aussie and Pound have risen slightly and needs to sustain the upmove to rise towards 0.6450-0.65 and 1.27 respectively. USDJPY looks bullish to 147 while EURJPY has broken above 158 and can soon target 159-160 on the upside. USDCNY is ranged within 7.25-7.32 but has scope to rise towards 7.35/40 eventually. USDRUB seems to be rising within 92-96 region while above 91.60. EURINR has come down to 89 and unless an immediate bounce is seen it can fall further towards 88. USDINR can trade within 82.30-82.70-82.90 for the near term.

Dollar Index (104.067) did rise above 104 last week but is finding it difficult to break above 104.50 and has come off slightly. It would be crucial to see if the index falls off immediately while below 104.50 or manages to slowly move up breaking above 104.50 which would open 105-106 on the upside. While below 104.50, we may expect some consolidation within 104.50-103.50

EURUSD (1.0808) has risen while above 1.0750 which needs to hold immediately for Euro to rise back else can target 1.07 before the expected reversal is seen. For now, while above 1.07, we may expect some consolidation within 1.0750-1.0850.

EURJPY (158.33) has risen above the 156-158 range and may move up towards 159-160 soon.

Dollar-Yen (146.51) is headed towards 147 but could come off if the Dollar Index does not sustain above 104.50. But on the charts, USDJPY has scope to test crucial resistance at 148 before a sharp reversal sets in. Watch price action near 147.

USDCNY (7.2822) looks stable and could trade within 7.25-7.32 for now. A break on the upside is needed to turn further bullish in the medium term.

Pound (1.2601) has bounced slightly from 1.2548 and if the rise sustains, we may expect a rise to 1.27 slowly.

Aussie (0.6432) has moved up from 0.6380 and while the rise sustains, we may expect a target of 0.6450-0.65.

USDRUB (94.9760) trades within 92-96 region and needs a sustained breakout on either side to give clarity on further direction from here.

USDINR (82.6525) rose back towards 82.70/75 from 82.35 last week as expected. Immediate range of 82.30-82.70-82.90 is likely to hold for this week as well.

EURINR (89.2528) has almost tested 89 but needs to hold above 89 to rise back towards 89.50 or higher eventually. Failure to sustain above 89 would make it vulnerable to a sharp fall in the coming weeks towards 88-86. For now watch price action at 89.

The US Treasury yields remain broadly stable as there was no surprise from Powell’s speech in his Jackson Hole speech. Powell reiterated that the Fed would continue to increase the rates or will retain it at higher levels. The outlook is bullish for the yields, and they can rise more. The German yields have risen back from around their support. Outlook remains bullish and more rise is on the cards. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen back. A strong follow-through rise is needed to resume the uptrend from here itself. Else further fall is possible before the uptrend resumes.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and the 30Yr (4.29%) yields remain stable. View is bullish to see a rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) while the yields remain above 4.1% (10Yr) and 4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.56%) and the 30Yr (2.65%) yields are rising back as expected. The broader bullish view is intact to see 3%-3.1% on both the yields.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2035%) has risen back just above 7.2%. This has to sustain to rise to 7.35% from here itself and avoid the fall to 7.15%-7.13%.

Similarly, the 5Yr GOI (7.2077%) also has to sustain above 7.2% to rise further and target 7.45%. Else a test of 7.13%-7.10% can happen first before the uptrend resumes.

Dow Jones is getting good support at 34000. View is bullish while it remains above 34000. DAX and Nikkei looks mixed. Nifty can rise back taking cues from the global markets. Shanghai can rise towards 3250-3275 if it sustains above 3125.

The support at 34000 has held well on the Dow (34346.90, +0.73%) . While above 34000, a rise to 35000-35500 can be seen in the coming weeks.

DAX (15631.82, +0.07%) looks mixed. While below 16000 the bias is negative to see 15200 before a rise is seen.

Nifty (19265.80, -0.26%) can rise back taking cues from the global markets. A sustained rise above 19500 will bring back the bullishness. Strong support is at 19000.

Nikkei (32167.50, +1.71%) looks mixed. A sideways trade between 32500-31000 may continue to persist for some time.

Shanghai (3142.50, +2.56%) opened with a wide gap up at 3219.04 from last Friday’s close at 3064.07 but couldn’t sustain the bounce and has come off sharply below 3150. If the index manage to sustain above 3125, a slow rise towards 3250-3275 can be seen.

Brent and WTI are facing rejections from the resistance at $ 85 (Brent) and $ 80 (WTI) respectively. While below these resistance, a fall to our expected level might be possible. Gold, Silver and Copper can see a rally on the upside while above the support at 1920, 23.80/70 and 3.73 respectively. Natural is bullish for a rise towards 3.0 in the near term.

Brent ($ 83.81) has fallen back as the resistance at $ 85 is holding well. While it remains below $ 85, a fall towards $ 80 is possible.

WTI ($ 79.78) is lacking strength to rise above the resistance at $ 80. As long as it remains below $ 81-80, a fall towards $ 77-76 or even lower to $ 75 is possible.

Gold (1943.20) unbales to gather strength to rise past 1950. Support is at 1920 and while that holds, a break above 1950 and rise towards 1975-1980 is possible in the near term.

Silver (24.23) has managed to hold above the support at 24. Lower support is seen at 23.80/70. While above these supports, we would retain our bullish view for a rise towards 25.

Copper (3.7835) has bounced back towards 3.80 as the support at 3.73 has held well. While above 3.73, bias is positive for a break above 3.80 and rise towards 3.85-3.90.

Natural Gas (2.74) continues to rise as the support at 2.42-2.40 is holding well. View remains bullish for a rise towards 2.8-3.0 in the near term.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY:
————-
23:05 4:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -23 …Expected -29 …Previous -30 …Actual -25

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 85.9 …Expected 86.8 …Previous 87.4 …Actual 85.7

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 91.0 …Expected 89.8 …Previous 91.4 …Actual 89.0

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 79.6 …Expected 83.8 … Previous 83.6 …Actual 82.6