Dollar Index has risen back slightly and may move up towards 104 before reversing while Euro may re-test 1.08 while below 1.0950. Aussie and Pound have dipped back and could trade within 0.6550-0.6450 and 1.26-1.28 respectively. USDJPY has fallen sharply and needs to bounce from 145 to avoid further decline to 144. EURJPY has also fallen sharply and could test 155 while below 160. USDCNY has fallen below 7.28 and needs to bounce back immediately to avoid a fall to 7.22/20. USDRUB has dipped below 96 and may trade within 92/94-96/98 in the coming week. EURINR has fallen from 90.50 and can head towards 89 before a reversal is seen. USDINR can face rejection from 82.80 to fall towards 82.60/50. Failure to fall from 82.80 can open up chances of 83.

Dollar Index (103.544) has managed to rise from 103 to 103.54 and if the rise continues, a re-test of 104 can be possible before reversing lower.

EURUSD (1.0850) held well below resistance at 1.0950 and has scope to re-test 1.08 before reversing higher.

EURJPY (157.67) has fallen sharply from 159.73 and while below 160, view may remain bearish for sometime. Watch for a possible bounce from 155.

Dollar-Yen (145.30) has fallen towards our expected 145 where if it does not stop, can fall further towards 144. View may remain bearish for the near term.

USDCNY (7.2537) has fallen below 7.26 and needs to rise back immediately towards 7.28/30 and higher to avoid a sharp fall towards 7.22/20. Such a fall if seen will cap the upside at 7.30 for the time being.

Pound (1.2674) has fallen back within the 1.28-1.26 range and may continue to trade within the sideways zone.

Aussie (0.6483) has also fallen sharply and may hold within 0.6550-0.6450 for the near term.

USDRUB (95.8954) has fallen back below 96, unable to sustain higher. Overall range of 98/96-94/92 may hold for the coming week.

USDINR (82.79) rose back to test 82.80 yesterday. It is crucial to watch if the spot would move higher breaking above 82.80 (immediate resistance) or fall back to 82.60/50. Preference is to see a fall from 82.80.

EURINR (89.5981) has fallen and while below resistance at 90.50, there is scope for a further fall towards 89.

The US Treasury yields remain stable ahead of the jobs and unemployment data release today. Broadly, supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. Need to see how the job numbers impact the yields today. The German yields have declined sharply but have supports that can hold well and keep the uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can dip to test their supports before resuming their uptrend.

The US 10Yr (4.11%) and the 30Yr (4.22%) yields remain stable. We expect the 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.1% (30Yr) support zone to hold and see a rise to 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) going forward.

The German 10Yr (2.46%) and the 30Yr (2.58%) yields have come down sharply. Support at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr) can limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact to target 3%-3.1% eventually.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1655%) and 5Yr GOI (7.1617%) are lower but stable. The chances are well alive to see 7.15%-7.13% (10Yr) and 7.13%-7.1% (5Yr) on the downside first before a fresh rise to 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.45% (5Yr) happens.

Dow Jones is seeing a corrective dip in line with our expectation. DAX is attempting to break above the resistance at 16000. Nifty remains bearish for a test of 19100-19000 before a fresh rally can begins. Nikkei has broken above 32500 to target its key resistance at 33200. Shanghai looks mixed.

Dow (34721.91, -0.48%) is seeing a corrective dip in line with our expectation. 34500 can be a good support from where the uptrend is likely to resume targeting 35000-35500.

DAX (15947.08, +0.35%) is attempting to breach 16000. A sustained rise above 16000 will be bullish to see 16400-16500. That will negate the danger of the fall to 15400-15200.

Nifty (19253.80, -0.48%) has come down as expected. It can test 19100-19000 before a fresh rise happens. A break below 19200 can trigger this fall.

Nikkei (32810.18, +0.59%) has risen sharply above 32500. A test of 33000-33200 looks likely in the near term. Thereafter we have to see if it breaks above 33200 or not.

Shanghai (3132.48, +0.40%) has rebounded from a low of 3114. Overall outlook is mixed. It may trade sideways within a broad 3225-3075 range for some time.

Brent and WTI are on their way to test key resistance at $ 88-89(Brent) and $ 85(WTI) respectively, which may hold and produce a fall from there. Gold has come down a bit and can fall further if it remains below the resistance at 1980-1985-1990. Silver and Copper remains bullish for a rise towards 26 and 3.90 respectively. Natural gas has fallen back but downside could be limited to 2.6.

Brent ($ 86.94) continues to rise. A test of key resistance at $ 88-89 looks likely. If the resistance holds, a corrective dip towards $ 85 can be seen.

WTI ($ 83.73) is heading up towards the key resistance at $ 85. While that holds, a fall back towards $ 81-80 can be seen.

Gold (1968.70) has come down as the resistance at 1980 seems to be holding well. A break above 1980-1985-1990 resistance zone is needed to strengthen the momentum towards 2020. Else a fall back towards 1940 can be seen.

Silver (24.94) has come down below 25. Support is at 24.50. While that holds, a rise towards 26 is still possible. Else it can fall towards 24.

Copper (3.8635) is heading towards 3.90 in line with expectation. If 3.90 holds, a corrective fall towards 3.80-3.70 can be seen. Else it may continue to move up to target its next resistance at 3.95.

Natural Gas (2.7510) has come down after testing a high of 2.8650. Immediate support is at 2.6. While it remains above 2.6, a rise towards 3.0 is possible. Lower support is seen at 2.50.

0:30 6:00 JP PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 49.6

1:45 7:15 CN PMI
Expn 49.0 …Expected – …Previous 49.2

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 58.2 …Expected – …Previous 57.7

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.8 …Expected – …Previous 1.6

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 38.5

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 42.7

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 45.3

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 270K …Expected – …Previous 187K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.7% …Expected – …Previous 3.5%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected – …Previous 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.4% …Expected – …Previous 0.5%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.3%

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 49.6

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 46.7 …Expected – …Previous 46.4

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
9:00 14:30 EU Unemp
Expn 6.4% …Expected 6.4% …Previous 6.4% …Actual 6.4%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY) Flash Estimate
Expn 5.3% …Expected 5.1% …Previous 5.3% …Actual 5.3%

12:00 17:30 IN GDP
Expn 5.6% …Expected 7.7% …Previous 6.1% …Actual 7.8%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.2%

12:30 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.2% …Actual 0.2%