Overall stable and ranged movement seen in most currency pairs. Dollar Index trades above 104 ad needs to fall below 104 to negate any further scope of bullishness. Euro too needs to rise above 1.08 to move higher. EURJPY and USDJPY can move higher towards 159-160 and 148 respectively while Pound and Aussie would also be bullish above 1.25 and 0.64 respectively. USDCNY looks bullish above 7.26 while USDRUB may remain ranged within 94-98 region. EURINR can be bullish above support at 89 while USDINR can range within 82.80-82.50 for some more time.

Dollar Index (104.17) needs to fall below 104 to negate any further scope of rise towards 105-106. While below 104.50, the index could fall slightly towards 103.60.

EURUSD (1.0783) needs to bounce back sharply above 1.08 to move up else cannot negate a test of 1.0750-1.07 in the medium term.

EURJPY (157.62) is likely to hold above 156 and rise towards 159-160 on the upside.

Dollar-Yen (146.15) has scope to rise towards 148 while above 144. The immediate view is bullish.

USDCNY (7.2619) is bullish while above 7.26 for a rise to 7.30/32.

Pound (1.2601) could rise from 1.26 or have scope to test 1.25 on the downside before moving up from here towards 1.28 again in the medium term. Broad range of 1.28-1.25 may continue to hold.

Aussie (0.6470) is holding well below 0.6550 and can test 0.64 on the downside before facing a sharp reversal. A break above 0.6550-0.66 is needed for Aussie to turn bullish in the longer run.
USDRUB (95.3850) could be ranged within 94-98 region for the near term.

USDINR (82.7125) has been holding well within 82.50-82.80 region and may continue to hold so for a few more sessions before a decisive break is seen on either side of the mentioned range.

EURINR (89.1591) has fallen to test immediate support at 89 which needs to hold to produce a bounce back towards 90 or higher. Overall view is bullish above 89.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply after the US employment rate increased to 3.8% in August from 3.5% in July. The broader outlook is bullish, and the yields can rise more. The German yields have risen back well. Bullish outlook is intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are stuck in a narrow range. They look vulnerable to test their supports first before the broader uptrend resumes.

The US 10Yr (4.18%) and the 30Yr (4.29%) yields have risen sharply. The broader picture is bullish to see 4.5%-4.6% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.7% (30Yr) on the upside while above 4.1%-4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.1% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.54%) and the 30Yr (2.68%) yields have risen back again and are keeping up the bullish view intact for a rise to 3%-3.1%. Support is at 2.4% (10Yr) and 2.5% (30Yr)

The 10Yr GoI (7.1671%) and 5Yr GOI (7.1673%) were stuck in a narrow range last week. They look vulnerable to test 7.15%-7.13% (10Yr) and 7.13%-7.1% (5Yr) first on the downside and then see a fresh rise towards 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.45% (5Yr) eventually.

Dow Jones and Nikkei are bullish. DAX is struggling to breach 16000. Nifty has risen sharply but it has to rise past 19500 to bring back the bullishness. Shanghai may rise towards 3175.

Dow (34837.71, +0.33%) is bullish. But a dip to 34500-34400 can be seen first before a break above 35000 and a rise to 35500-35800 happens.

DAX (15840.34, -0.67%) is struggling to breach 16000. The danger of the fall to 15500-15400-15200 will come back into the picture on a fall below 15800. A strong rise past 16000 is needed to negate the fall and turn bullish for 16400-16500.

Nifty (19435.30, +0.94%) has risen back sharply on Friday. It is getting support around 19200 which is reducing the chances of seeing 19100-19000. A strong rise past 19500 could bring back the bullishness and will pave the way for 19800-20000.

Nikkei (32790, +0.19%) is on its way to test 33000-33200 on the upside. It has to break above 33200 to move up towards 33500 or higher. Else a fall towards 32000 cannot be negated.

Shanghai (3150.21, +0.54%) has risen further. It may rise towards 3175. Overall a broad range of 3225-3075 may hold for some time.

Brent has entered into key resistance zone of $ 89 whereas WTI has risen, breaking above the resistance at $ 85. Gold and Copper ran into their key resistance at 1980 and 3.90 and has dipped from there. Silver remains lower and looks vulnerable to fall further in the near term. Natural gas outlook will remain bullish while above the support at 2.68-2.60.

Brent ($ 88.55) has risen sharply towards the resistance at $ 89 as expected. If $ 89 holds, a corrective dip towards $ 85 can be seen. Else view can turn further bullish for a rise towards $ 90-90.50.

WTI ($ 85.67) has risen sharply, breaking above the resistance at $ 85. While this break sustains, a further rise towards $ 88 or $ 90 can be seen in the near term.

Gold (1968.10) is holding well below the resistance at 1980. Failure to break above 1980 can drag it to down 1940. A strong rise past 1980 is needed to open doors towards 2020.

Silver (24.49) is attempting to break below the support at 24.50. It may come down to 24 or even lower to 23.50.

Copper (3.85) tested the resistance at 3.90 in line with expectation and has come off from there. While it remains below 3.90, a fall towards 3.80-3.70 is possible.

Natural Gas (2.6730) has declined towards 2.65. Support is at 2.6-2.5. While it remains above 2.6/2.5, bias is positive for a rise towards 3.0 in the near term.

5:45 11:15 CH GDP
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.3%

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
0:30 6:00 JP PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 49.6 …Actual 49.6

1:45 7:15 CN PMI
Expn 49.0 …Expected – …Previous 49.2 …Actual 51.0

5:00 10:30 IN Manufacturing PMI
Expn 58.2 …Expected – …Previous 57.7 …Actual 58.6

6:30 12:00 CH CPI
Expn 1.8 …Expected – …Previous 1.6 …Actual 1.5

7:30 13:00 CH PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 38.5 …Actual 39.9

8:00 13:30 EU PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 42.7 …Actual 43. 5

8:30 14:00 UK PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 45.3 …Actual 43.0

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 270K …Expected – …Previous 157K …Actual 187K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.7% …Expected – …Previous 3.5% …Actual 3.8%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected – …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.4% …Expected – …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.2%

12:30 18:00 CA GDP
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.2% …Actual – 0.2%

13:30 19:00 CA PMI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 49.6 …Actual 48.0

14:00 19:30 US Manufacturing ISM
Expn 46.7 …Expected – …Previous 46.4 …Actual 47.6