Most currencies are trading within a safe range; a break on either side would bring in more directional clarity. Dollar Index, Euro, EURJPY and USDJPY trade within 105-106, 1.06-1.07, 157-158 and 147-149 range respectively which could continue for a few more sessions unless a break on either side is seen. USDCNY can head higher towards 7.35 while above 7.28. Aussie is ranged within 0.6390-0.65 while Pound looks bearish towards 1.22. USDRUB may trade within 93.90-96.00. EURINR may trade above 88 while USDINR could continue moving higher while above 82.80.

Dollar Index (105.588) continues to trade within 105-106 region with expectation of a possible reversal from 106. EURUSD (1.0648) is also trading within 1.06-1.07 region with preference to see an eventual sustained rise above 1.07.

EURJPY (157.98) is trading within 157-158 but while above immediate support at 157, we need a confirmed break above 158 to look for higher targets of 159-160. Alternatively, a break below 157 if seen will turn bearish for the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (148.34) could rise to 149 while above 147. The pair seems to be inching up slowly targeting 150 on the upside soon.

USDCNY (7.3037) seems to be moving up slowly. While above 7.2850, there is scope to rise towards 7.35/38.

Aussie (0.6426) could hold within 0.6390-0.65 for the near term unless a break on either side of the range is seen.

Pound (1.2240) looks strongly bearish and could target 1.22 in the next few sessions.

USDRUB (94.63) seems to be in a contracting range. The immediate trade zone of 93.90-96 may hold for a few sessions. Broad range of 94-98 may continue holding for this week.

USDINR (82.9350) fell last week to 82.8225 but does not seem to be sustaining lower levels as it closed near 82.9350 last week. It would be important to see if the spot moves up to 83 and higher or trades within 82.80-83.00 today. Direction from here is not very clear just now.

EURINR (88.4505) may continue trade within 88-89 for a few sessions.

The US Treasury yields have come-off on Friday. With limited room on the upside, we can expect a corrective fall going forward within the broader uptrend. The German yields have room to rise more within their current uptrend. Intermediate corrections are possible. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen back sharply from their range support. The range is intact, and the bias is bullish to see an upside breakout of their range.

The US 10Yr (4.45%) and the 30Yr (4.54%) yields have come down after testing 4.5% and 4.6% respectively. While below 4.55% (10Yr) and 4.65% (30Yr) we expect a correction towards 4.3%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4%-4.3% (30Yr) and even lower before a fresh rise is seen.

The German 10Yr (2.74%) remains stable while the 30Yr (2.78%) has declined sharply. With support at 2.5% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr), the broader view remains bullish to see 3%-3.1% on the upside with intermediate corrections.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1883%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.1797%) have risen back sharply after testing the support at 7.1%. The 7.1%-7.25% range remains intact. While above 7.1% we retain our bullish bias to see a break above 7.25% and a rise to 7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3% and 7.45% (5Yr) eventually.

Dow Jones and Nifty remains bearish for a test of their immediate support. DAX is back into its 15500-16100 range. Nikkei and Shanghai looks bullish while above the support at 32500 and 3100.

Dow (33963.84, -0.31%) is heading down towards 33800-33700 as expected. It has to be seen if it can bounce back thereafter or extend the fall upto 33500-33300.

DAX (15557.29, -0.09%) has risen back from the low of 15471. The 15500-16100 range is holding as of now. While above 15500, a rise to 15800-16100 can be seen in the coming days.

Nifty (19674.25, -0.34%) continues to fall. It can test 19500 and then possibly reverse higher again. A break below 19500 if seen can drag it to 19200-19000.

Nikkei (32659.50, +0.81%) continues to move. It may rise towards 32900-33000 while it stays above 32500.

Shanghai (3121.32, -0.35%) has risen well breaking above 3115. While this break sustains above 3100, a further rise towards 3150-3175 can be seen.

Brent appears ranged within $ 95-92. WTI is inching up gradually towards $ 92. Gold may trade within 1960-1935 (narrow) and 1965-1920 (Broad) range for some time. Silver looks bullish for the near term. Copper has to sustain above 3.6650-3.65 to avoid the danger of falling further. Natural gas has risen sharply above 2.80 and has scope to rise further towards 3.0.

Brent ($ 93.46) appears ranged within $ 95-92. It has to break above $ 95 to see a rise towards $ 96 or higher. Else it would remain vulnerable to a break below $ 92 and fall towards $ 91-90.

WTI ($ 90.15) is inching up gradually towards $ 92. A sustained break above $ 92 is needed to strengthen the momentum towards $ 94-95. Else it can fall back towards $ 88-86.

Gold (1943.10) is holding well above the support at 1935. A narrow range of 1960-1935 and a broad range of 1965-1920 could persist for some time with a bit bullish view.

Silver (23.78) is lacking strength to rise above 24. Immediate support is at 23.60/40. While above 23.40, bias is positive for a rise towards 24.50. Lower support is seen at 23.20/23.00.

Copper (3.6960) remains subdued. Support is at 3.6650-3.65. It has to sustain above 3.6650-3.65 to avoid the danger of falling further towards 3.58-3.55.

Natural Gas (2.8930) has risen sharply above 2.80 as the support at 2.6 has held well. View is bullish for a rise towards 3.0 while above the support at 2.6/2.5.

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 83.4 …Expected 85.2 …Previous 85.7

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 87.5 …Expected 88.0 …Previous 89.0

8:00 13:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 81.1 …Expected 82.8 …Previous 82.6

DATA FRIDAY:
————-
23:05 4:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -21 …Expected -26 …Previous -25 …Actual -21

23:30 5:00 JP CPI
Expn 3.3 …Expected – …Previous 3.3 …Actual 3.1

3:00 8:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected -0.10% …Previous -0.10% …Actual -0.10%