US ADP employment data yesterday came out at 89k, lower than the earlier 180k and market expectation of 155k, pulling down Dollar Index to levels below 107. Similarly, a lower US NFP data if seen tomorrow will be able to bring down Dollar Index towards 106 or slightly lower. Euro can test 1.06-1.0650 before pausing. Aussie and Pound have moved up bit but still look bearish in the medium term while below 0.65 and 1.23. EURJPY looks stable and could fall to 155 while below 157. USDJPY has scope to test 147.70 before rising towards 149. USDRUB may pause above 100 but may eventually move up towards 102-102.50. EURINR has bounced from 87 and could rise to 88 before again resuming the fall. USDINR can face rejection from 83.25/30 to fall towards 83.10/00.

Dollar Index (106.57) has fallen sharply after the lower than expected ADP employment data release. A fall to 106 looks likely before a pause. Market expects a lower figure on the US NFP as well which if turns out lower can pull down the index towards 106 or even to 105.50.

EURUSD (1.0522) has bounced well and has scope to rise to 1.06 over the next few days before pausing near or just above 1.06.

EURJPY (156.21) is stable just now but while below 157, there could be some scope for a fall to 155.

Dollar-Yen (148.47) has fallen and has scope to test 147.70 in the next 1-2 sessions. Thereafter, if a bounce is seen, we may expect a rise to 149 again.

USDCNY (7.3005) is in a week long holiday.

Aussie (0.6363) has bounced well from levels just below 0.63 and has scope to test 0.64 in the next few sessions before again falling back from there. A sustained rise above 0.65 is needed in the long term for the Aussie to prevent any further decline to 0.63 or lower.

Pound (1.2158) has risen on Dollar weakness and could continue to move up towards 1.22-1.2250 before pausing.

USDRUB (100.1385) could see a pause and remain stable for a few sessions before resuming the upmove towards 102-102.50.

USDINR (83.2450) tested 83.2650 before closing at 83.2450 in line with our expected range of 83.25-83.10 mentioned yesterday. While 83.10-83.00 continues to look as decent supports, it would be crucial to see rejection from 83.30/25 today for the spot to fall.

EURINR (87.5971) has bounced well from 87 but the rise could be short lived. View is bearish while below 88.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. An extended fall from here is needed to indicate that the correction has begun. Else they can still see more rise going forward without a correction. The German yields have dipped but are likely to be short-lived. The view is bullish and more rise can be seen going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are attempting to break their range on the upside. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to boost the bullish momentum and take them higher. Else the range can continue to remain intact. The RBI monetary policy outcome tomorrow will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.72%) and the 30Yr (4.85%) have come down sharply. They will need to see a sustained fall from here to indicate a correction and fall to 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) first and may be even lower. Else the chances of a straight rise to 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) will still remain alive.

The German 10Yr (2.92%) and the 30Yr (3.12%) have come down slightly. View remains bullish to see 3.1% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) on the upside before a corrective fall happens.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2367%) failed to sustain the break above 7.25%. We retain our bullish bias for the 10Yr to see sustained break above 7.25% and rise to 7.3%-7.35%.

Dow Jones has bounced from around 32873 and may rise further if the support at 32800-32700 holds well. Nikkei has risen back as the support at 30500 has held well. Nifty and DAX looks bearish for the near term.

Dow (33129.55, +0.39%) has bounced from around 32873. As mentioned yesterday, 32800-32700 is a very important support zone which will need a close watch to see for a reversal.

DAX (15099.92, +0.10%) has risen back from the low of 14948. A test of 14800 is still possible while it remains below 15200.

Nifty (19436.10, -0.47%) has bounced well from the low of 19333. But while below 19600, a test of 19200-19000 is possible before a strong bounce happens.

Nikkei (30888.50, +1.16%) has rebounded as the support at 30500 has held well. While above 30500, a rise towards 31500 looks possible.

Shanghai (3110.48) is closed today and will remain closed till Friday.

Crude prices fell sharply on wednesday as Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry confirmed that it will continue to cut its crude output of voluntary 1 million barrel per day (bpd) starting from Nov-23 until the end of 2023. Gold and Silver looks ranged but while the metals remain below 1850 (Gold) and 22 (Silver), bias will remain bearish to see a further dip in the near term. Copper tested 3.55 and has bounced back from there as expected. Need to see if it sustains above 3.55 or not. Natural gas has scope to rise towards 3.3.

Brent ($ 86.29) has plunged breaking below $ 89-$ 87. It has to sustain above $ 85 to negate the danger of falling towards $ 82 and to rise towards $ 89-90.

WTI ($ 84.62) has fallen sharply breaking below the support at $ 86-85. Next support is seen at $ 83. It has to hold above $ 83 and rise past $ 85-86 to avoid the danger of falling further towards $ 80.

Gold (1840.90) is consolidating below 1850. While it stays below 1850/1860, view would remain vulnerable for a fall towards 1800.

Silver (21.34) looks ranged within 21.60-20.80. As long as it remains below 22, bias will remain bearish for a fall towards 20.50-20.

Copper (3.5955) tested 3.55 yesterday and has bounced back slightly from there as expected. It has to sustain above 3.55 to avoid the danger of falling towards 3.50 and to rise towards 3.65-3.70.

Natural Gas (2.9930) broke above the upper end of the 3.00-2.80 range yesterday and tested a high of 3.0550 before coming off from there to trade below 3.0. It has scope to rise towards 3.3 in the coming sessions.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 8.61 …Previous 8.04

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 59.5 …Expected – …Previous 60.1

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -62.8 …Expected -65.1 …Previous -65.2

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
22:30 04:00 AU PMI
Expn -22.2 …Expected – …Previous -19.8 …Actual -12.8

9:00 14:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.7% …Expected -0.5% …Previous -0.1% …Actual -1.2%

12:15 17:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 155K …Previous 177K …Actual 89K