Dollar Index and Euro are headed towards 106-105.90 and 1.06-1.0650 before a pause or reversal is seen. Aussie and Pound may move up for a few more sessions towards 0.64-0.6420 and 1.22 before a reversal is seen. EURJPY can be ranged within 155-158 while USDJPY has scope to rise while above support at 148. USDRUB may pause around 100 and could show some dip to 99-98 before moving up eventually in the longer run towards 102-102.50. EURINR is moving up but overall view is bearish below 88. USDINR can trad within 83.30/25-83.10/00 for now. US NFP data is to be watched today.

Dollar Index (106.393) has scope to fall towards trend support near 106-105.90 before again reversing higher. Watch price action near the mentioned support.

EURUSD (1.0545) has scope to test 1.06-1.0650 as a short term rise while the Dollar Index falls for the next few sessions. But overall view remains bearish in the longer run while below 1.07.

EURJPY (156.70) is holding well above 155 and seems to be attempting to rise towards 157-158 on the upside. Overall broad range of 155-158 can hold for the next 1-2 weeks unless a break out on either side is seen.

Dollar-Yen (148.62) has support at 148 above which the pair can rise towards 149-150 again in the coming week.

USDCNY (7.3005) will resume next week after a long holiday.

Aussie (0.6380) has been moving up over the last 3-days and has scope to test 0.64-0.6420 before pausing.

Pound (1.2185) has also risen and could head towards 1.22-1.2250 over the next few sessions.

USDRUB (100.1298) continues to fluctuate within 98-100 and could remain so for a few sessions before eventually moving higher towards 102 in the longer run.

USDINR (83.2550) has been stable below the crucial resistance at 83.30. We may continue to see a range of 83.30/25-83.10/00 to hold for the day.

EURINR (87.7560) has been moving up slowly but overall view remains bearish below 88.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and stable. They will have to fall more from here to enter into a correction before rising further. The US NFP data release today is going to be very important and that can set the direction for the yields. The German yields have dipped further. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have fallen back into their range. The RBI’s monetary policy outcome today will have to be watched closely.

The US 10Yr (4.72%) and the 30Yr (4.89%) yields remain stable. As mentioned yesterday, a further sustained fall from here is needed to see a correction towards 4.5% (10Yr) and 4.6% (30Yr) first and then lower may be. Else a rise to 5% (10Yr) and 5.2% (30Yr) straightaway cannot be ruled out. Need to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.88%) and the 30Yr (3.10%) have dipped further but can get support at 2.8% and 3.1% respectively. The overall outlook remains bullish to see 3.1% (10Yr) and 3.3%-3.4% (30Yr) on the upside after which a correction is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2140%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.2496%) have come down into their 7.1%-7.25% range again. Failure to rise back from here can drag them down towards the lower end of the range. The expected break above 7.25% and the rise to 7.3%-7.35% (10Yr) and 7.3%-7.45% (5Yr) may take some more time.

Dow Jones immediate outlook is mixed. DAX looks vulnerable to a fall towards 14800. Nifty has to rise past 19600 to bring back the bullishness. Nikkei has scope to rise towards 31500 while above the support at 30500.

Dow (33119.57, -0.03%) remains stable. The immediate outlook is mixed. The chances of a fall to 32800-32700 is still a possibility before a strong reversal is seen.

DAX (15070.22, -0.20%) is still vulnerable to see 14800 on the downside. A rise past 15200 is needed to negate that fall.

Nifty (19545.75, +0.56%) has risen and closed higher. A strong follow-through rise and a close above 19600 today can reduce the chances of the fall to 19200-19000. It can then bring back the bullish chances of revisiting 19800-20000 levels.

Nikkei (31023.50, -0.09%) is iching up and has scope to rise towards 31500.

Shanghai (3110.48) is closed today.

Crude prices continue to dip breaking below their support level and may remain vulnerable to fall further in the near term. Gold and Silver may remain bearish for the near term. Copper might break below 3.55 and come down towards 3.50. Natural gas has risen sharply and has scope to test 3.25-3.30 before a corrective fall can be seen from there. Watch price action of commodities as the outcome of US NFP today could bring in some volatility in the market.

Brent ($ 84.45) has even broken below $ 85. It can now fall towards $ 82 or even lower towards $ 80.

WTI ($ 82.72) has fallen further below the support at $ 83. View is bearish to see a dip towards $ 80 or even lower towards $ 78.

Gold (1836.90) remains well below the resistance at 1850. While it stays below 1850, view is bearish to see a test of 1800 before a reversal can happen.

Silver (21.14) is coming down towards the lower end of 20.80-21.60 range. Bias remain bearish for a fall towards 20.50-20 before a bounce can happen from there.

Copper (3.5675) is hovering above the support at 3.55. Failure to sustain above 3.55 can see a further fall towards 3.50.

Natural Gas (3.1750) has risen sharply towards 3.2. A test of immediate resistance at 3.25-3.3 looks likely before a corrective fall can be seen towards 3.00-2.95.

4:30 10:00 RBI Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected 6.50% …Previous 6.50%

4:30 10:00 RBI Rev Repo Rate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.35%

4:30 10:00 RBI MSF
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 6.75%

12:30 18:00 US NFP
Expn 190K …Expected 168K …Previous 187K

12:30 18:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.6% …Expected 3.7% …Previous 3.8%

12:30 18:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.2

12:30 18:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.4% …Expected – …Previous 0.2%

12:30 18:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 28.0K …Previous 39.9K

DATA YESTERDAY:
————-
0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 8.61 …Previous 7.32 …Actual 9.64

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 59.5 …Expected – …Previous 60.1 …Actual 61.0

12:30 18:00 US Trade Balance
Expn -62.8 …Expected -65.1 …Previous -64.7 …Actual -58.3