Dollar Index and Euro may test 105.50 and 1.0650 from where a possible near term reversal could be seen. Aussie and Pound may hold and reverse from resistances near 0.6450 and 1.2350 respectively. EURJPY has broken above 158 and could rise towards 159-160 if it manages to sustain above 158.70. USDJPY has support at 148 which if holds can take it towards 150. USDRUB may trade within 95-102.50. EURINR could dip towards 88 or lower while below immediate resistance at 88.50. USDINR needs to break on either side of the 83.30-83.00 zone to give clarity on further direction. On the data releases, US CPI will be important to watch tonight.

Dollar Index (105.687) trades above 105.50 and needs to sustain and rise higher from here to re-test 106.50-107. Else a break below 105.50, if seen would be bearish for a fall towards 104 in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.0622) could face rejection from 1.0650 and fall back towards 1.06-1.0550 soon. Only a break above 1.0650, if seen, can take it higher towards 1.07-1.0750.

EURJPY (158.53) has finally been able to break above 158 and if the rise sustains and breaks above 158.70, we may look for near term rise towards 159-160.

Dollar-Yen (149.25) is holding well above support at 148 and can rise towards 150-151 soon.

USDCNY (7.3025) may attempt to rise to 7.32/35 in the near term while above 7.27. Near term view looks bullish.

Aussie (0.6412) fell sharply from 0.6445 as immediate resistance at 0.6450 is holding well. While below 0.6450, Aussie can fall towards 0.64-0.6350 soon.

Pound (1.2312) is headed towards resistance near 1.2350 which could possibly hold in the near term and produce a fall back towards 1.2250-1.22 soon.

USDRUB (97.6866) continues to fluctuate within 95-102.50 region and may remain so for the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.1925) dipped to a low of 83.1450 yesterday but continues to trade within the narrow range of 83.27-83.10. Unless a break on either side is seen, it is difficult to say which side the pair will move from here. Sideways consolidation may continue for this week as well.

EURINR (88.3424) has resistance at 88.50 below which the pair is bearish towards 88.

The US Treasury yields have declined further and are on a corrective fall. There is room for the yields to come down further from here. The US CPI data release today will be very important to watch. A weak inflation number can drag the yields further lower. The German yields are also coming down in line with our expectation and can fall more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can extend their corrective fall in the coming sessions.

The US 10Yr (4.57%) and the 30Yr (4.70%) yields continue to fall. The corrective fall to 4.5%-4.4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr) is happening now.

The German 10Yr (2.71%) and the 30Yr (2.89%) have declined sharply. The view is intact to see a fall to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) while below 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr). Thereafter a fresh rise is a possibility.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3049%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3470%) have come down to test 7.3% (10Yr) and 7.35% (5Yr) as expected. A further fall from here can take them down to 7.28%-7.25% (10Yr) and 7.25% (5Yr).

Dow Jones is stuck between 33600 and 33900 over the last couple of days. DAX continues to rise and has scope to test 15650-15700 in the near term. Nifty and Nikkei remain bullish for the near term. Shanghai continue to look mixed.

Dow (33804.87, +0.19%) is stuck between 33600 and 33900 over the last couple of days. As mentioned yesterday, a strong rise past 33900 is needed to see 34000-34300 on the upside. Else a fall to 33500-33300 is possible.

DAX (15460.01, +0.24%) continues to move up and can test 15650-15700 in the coming days. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.

Nifty (19811.35, +0.62%) has tested 19800 as expected. Bullish view is intact to revisit 20000. The upside can extend even up to 20300 in a week or two. Supports are at 19750 and 19600.

Nikkei (32353.56, +1.31%) is heading towards 32500 as expected. View is bullish to see a test of 32800 before a corrective dip can be seen.

Shanghai (3097.97, +0.62%) remains mixed. A sideways range of 3050-3150 is likely to persist for some time.

Crude prices have declined sharply and look bearish to fall further from here. Gold and Silver are on their way to test key resistance as expected. The outcome of US CPI data today will decide if Gold and Silver will break above their resistance or not. Copper and Natural gas may trade sideways within 3.70-3.55 and 3.2-3.5 range respectively for some time.

Brent ($ 85.27) has declined sharply below $ 86 and may look to fall further towards $ 83-82.

WTI ($ 82.86) has come down breaking below the lower end of the $ 88-84 range. A further dip towards $ 80 or even lower towards $ 78 might be possible.

Gold (1890) is on its way to test 1900. A break above it, if seen, can lead to a further rise towards 1940-1950. Else it can fall back towards 1860.

Silver (22.24) is heading towards 22.50. A break above it can see an extended rise to 22.70-23. The level of 22.70-23 are key resistance zone which may hold and produce a reversal towards 22 or lower.

Copper (3.6105) is consolidating above 3.60. A broad range of 3.70-3.55 may hold for some time.

Natural Gas (3.3830) fell to 3.2250 yesterday before rising back from there to trade above 3.35. Outlook is mixed. A broad range of 3.20-3.50 may hold for a while.

6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -15.5 …Expected -15.2 …Previous -14.1

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 6.4% …Expected 9.3% …Previous 5.7%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 6.25 …Expected 5.45 …Previous 6.83

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.5 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.6

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.3%

DATA YESTERDAY:
12:30 18:00 US PPI
Expn 0.0% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.7% …Actual 0.5%

12:30 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.4 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.2 …Actual 0.3