Lower US CPI release yesterday aided a rise in the US Dollar. Dollar Index and Euro may now trade within 105.50-107 and 1.0650-1.05 in the near term. Aussie and Pound have fallen sharply from respective resistances and could remain raged within 0.6450-0.63 and 1.2350-1.21 respectively in the coming week where the mentioned upper and lower levels are decent resistances and supports. EURJPY trades around 158, unable to sustain the rise seen yesterday. USDJPY has support at 148 above which view is bullish to 150. USDRUB may trade within 95-101/102.50. EURINR could trade within 87.50-88.50 while USDINR may continue trade within 83.00-83.30 for a few more sessions.

Dollar Index (106.455) moved up well yesterday from 105.535 in line with our expectation of a possible bounce from 105.50. While the index trades above 105.50, there is scope for a test of 107 before declining back from there towards 106-105.50 again.

EURUSD (1.0543) declined well from 1.0640 yesterday but could pause above 1.05 to again attempt to move higher. An immediate range of 1.05-1.0650 may hold for the next few sessions.

EURJPY (157.93) has declined back below 158 after attempting to trade higher yesterday. The pair needs to rise and sustain above 158 else can soon decline towards 156-155 on the downside. Watch price action at 158.

Dollar-Yen (149.77) is holding well above support at 148 and can rise towards 150-151 soon.

USDCNY (7.3037) looks stable just now but can rise towards 7.32/35 in the near term while above 7.27. View is bullish.

Aussie (0.6325) is falling from resistance at 0.6450 as expected. A decline to 0.63 or lower is possible.

Pound (1.2202) fell sharply from 1.2332 yesterday and while below immediate resistance at 1.2350, view is bearish towards 1.2150-1.21.A range of 1.2350-1.21 may hold for the coming week.

USDRUB (97.7130) is highly volatile within 95-101 region and could possibly continue so for the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.2475) continues to fluctuate within 83.10-83.30 region which may hold today as well. But we may soon expect a break out on either side of the range.

EURINR (87.7817) fell sharply from resistance at 88.50 as expected and could trade within 88.50-87.50/87.00 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply as the inflation data came in better than the market expectation. However, the inflation numbers were lower than the previous reading. The US Headline CPI rose 3.69% (YoY) and the Core CPI (4.13%) in September. Both were down from their previous month reading of 3.71%, 4.39% respectively. The Treasury will have to sustain this bounce in order to rise further and negate a fall back. The German yields have also risen but need to get a follow-through rise from here to move higher and avoid falling further. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped further and have room to fall further.

The US 10Yr (4.67%) and the 30Yr (4.83%) yields have risen back sharply. Need to see if they are sustaining above 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) which is needed to rise further towards 4.8%-4.85% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) again and reduce the chances of the fall to 4.5%-4.4% (10Yr) and 4.7%-4.6% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.78%) and the 30Yr (2.97%) have risen back well. But a strong rise past 2.8% (10Yr) and 3.1% (30Yr) is needed to negate the fall to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) and rise towards 3% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.3% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.2977%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3197%) continues to fall and can test 7.28%-7.25% (10Yr) and 7.25% (5Yr).

Dow Jones and DAX have to rise past 33900 and 15650-15700 to avoid a fall back. Nifty has dipped slightly but bias will remain bullish while above the support at 19600. Nikkei has scope to target its resistance before a corrective dip can be seen. Shanghai continue to look mixed.

Dow (33631.14, -0.51%) fell to a low of 33455 before bouncing back. As mentioned yesterday, 33900 has to be breached for a rise to 34000-34300. Else the Dow can remain vulnerable for a fall to 33000-32800 again. Have to wait and watch.

DAX (15425.03, -0.23%) has come down from the high of 15575. Resistance is at 15650-15700 which has to be broken to pave way for 16000 again and avoid falling back to 15200-15000.

Nifty (19794, -0.09%) dipped slightly. Supports are at 19750 and 19600 while above which the bias is bullish to revisit 20000 levels.

Nikkei (32377.50, -0.34%) has risen towards 32500 as expected but lacks strength to break above it. Bias remains bullish for a test of 32800-33000 before a corrective dip can be seen.

Shanghai (3090.44, -0.57%) continues to trade mix. A sideways range of 3050-3150 is likely to persist for some time.

Brent has bounced back a bit but while below the resistance at $ 88 bias will remain bearish for the near term. WTI remains subdued and has scope to fall further from here. Gold and Silver have come down from their resistance levels after the release of higher than expected US CPI data for Sep-23. Copper and Natural gas have too declined within their 3.70-3.55 and 3.2-3.5 range.

Brent ($ 86.59) has bounced back from $ 85 but bias is still bearish to see a fall towards $ 83-82. On the upside, resistance is seen at $ 88.

WTI ($ 83.64) remains subdued. View remains bearish to see a dip towards $ 80 or even lower towards $ 78. Immediate resistance is at $ 85-86.

Gold (1885.60) tested 1898.30 in line with our expectations for a test of 1900 and has come down from there. While it remains below 1900, a dip towards 1860-1840 looks possible.

Silver (22.09) tested a high of 22.39 yesterday before coming off from there. A dip towards 21.50 or lower is possible while it stays below 22.50.

Copper (3.5890) is inching down towards the lower end of the 3.70-3.55 range. Bias is bearish to see a break below 3.55 and fall further towards 3.50 or lower.

Natural Gas (3.3240) is facing rejections from 3.45. Overall a broad range of 3.20-3.50 is likely to persist for a while.

1:30 7:00 CN CPI (YoY)
Expn – …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.1

1:30 7:00 CN PPI
Expn – …Expected -2.4 …Previous -3.0

9:00 14:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn 1.0% …Expected 0.1% …Previous -1.1%

9:00 14:30 IN Trade bal
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -24.16

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
6:00 11:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -15.5 …Expected -15.2 …Previous -13.9 …Actual -16.0

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 6.4% …Expected 9.3% …Previous 6.0% …Actual 10.3%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 6.25 …Expected 5.45 …Previous 6.83 …Actual 5.02

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.5 …Expected 0.3 …Previous 0.6 …Actual 0.4

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.3% …Actual 0.3%