Forex pairs seem to be stable just now without much volatility. Dollar Index and Euro continue to trade within 105-106.50 and 1.06-1.05 while USDJPY, Aussie and Pound could attempt to rise towards the upper end of the mentioned ranges of 148-150, 0.63-0.64 and 1.2250-1.21 before falling from there. EURJPY is bearish while below 158. USDCNY continues to slowly rise towards 7.35. USDRUB may trade within 96-101/102.50. EURINR and USDINR may continue trade within 88-87 and 83.10/15-83.30. We warn caution on the USDINR which could be preparing for a sharp rise above 83.30 soon.

Dollar Index (106.32) has dipped since yesterday and has scope to trade within 106-106.50 for now.

EURUSD (1.055) is likely to trade within 1.06-1.05 with immediate resistance seen at 1.06.

EURJPY (157.74) can rise to resistance near 158.50 before falling back towards 157 in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (149.54) looks stable near levels seen yesterday. While above support at 148.60 we can expect a slow rise towards 150. The immediate range of 150-148.60 may hold for the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.3121) is slowly inching higher towards 7.35. View is bullish for the next few sessions while above 7.30.

Aussie (0.6348) seems to be slowly rising and has scope to test 0.64 before falling from there towards 0.63.

Pound (1.2194) has not been able to break above 1.2225 in the last 2-3 sessions but if it manages to rise above 1.22, we may expect a possible test of 1.2250-1.2280 before a fall is seen again towards 1.2150/1.21. Overall near term range of 1.2280-1.21 may hold for the coming days.

USDRUB (97.3450) tested 96.35 before again rising from there. Immediate support is now seen at 96 above which view is bullish.

USDINR (83.2725) traded within the narrow range of 83.23-82.28 yesterday. The pair has been trading below 83.30 for too long unable to face any sharp rejection but could possibly be preparing a base for a sharp break out on the upside. We remain cautious near current levels. Narrow range of 83.30-83.20/10 may hold for the next few sessions.

EURINR (87.8070) is likely to trade within 88-87 region, 88 being an immediate resistance which could produce a fall in the next couple of sessions.

The US Treasury yields have risen and are likely to move further higher from here. The German yields have also moved up. But resistances are coming up for them which have to be broken to move higher and avoid a fall back. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are inching up. The supports are holding well, and they can move up further from here.

The US 10Yr (4.72%) and the 30Yr (4.87%) yields have risen back. A further rise to 4.8%-4.85% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) is possible while they sustain higher. A break below 4.6% (10Yr) and 4.8% (30Yr) will only bring them under pressure for more fall.

The German 10Yr (2.78%) and the 30Yr (2.99%) have bounced back. But a strong rise past 2.8% (10Yr) and 3%-3.1% (30Yr) is needed to avoid the fall to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.8% (30Yr) and resume the uptrend from here itself. It is a wait and watch,

The 10Yr GoI (7.3355%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3493%) yields have bounced further. While above 7.28% (10Yr) and 7.3% (5Yr) a further rise to 7.38% (10Yr) and 7.4% (5Yr) is possible.

Dow Jones has risen above 33900 and can now move further up to 34300-34400. DAX has risen back but needs a follow through rise to move up towards 15500. Nifty is bullish while above the support at 19600. Nikkei has bounced back from the support at 31500. Outlook is bullish while above 31500. Shanghai remains subdued but the downside seems limited to 3050.

Dow (33984.54, +0.93%) has risen above 33900 and can now move further up to 34300-34400. Support is around 33700 now.

DAX (15237.99, +0.34%) has risen back from a low around 15100. A follow-through rise today can take the index up to 15500 this week.

Nifty (19731.75, -0.10%) was stable and range bound yesterday. We reiterate that while above 19600, the bias is bullish to see 20000.

Nikkei (31926.00, +0.92%) has bounced back as the support at 31500 has held well. This keeps our bullish view intact for a rise towards 33000.

Shanghai (3068.33, -0.18%) remains lower and is heading down towards 3060. Immediate support is at 3050. While that holds, we expect a range of 3050-3125 to persist for some time.

Crude prices have fallen back failing to break above their immediate resistance. Gold, Silver and Copper outlook is bearish for the near term. Natural gas continues to dip but downside could be limited to 3.0.

Brent ($ 89.35) has declined below $ 90 failing to break above $ 91. It can fall towards $ 88-87 while it remains below $ 91. Only a strong break above $ 91 could pave the way towards $ 94.

WTI ($ 86.19) has fallen back failing to rise past $ 88. A range of $ 88-82 is likely to persist for some time. Outlook is bearish while it stays below $ 88.

Gold (1925.10) seems to be turning down from 1950. View is bearish for a fall towards 1900 while below 1950.

Silver (22.56) continues to fall as the resistance at 23 is holding well. While below 23, a fall back towards 22.40-22 looks possible.

Copper (3.5660) has declined as the resistance mentioned at 3.62 has held well. It looks vulnerable to a break below 3.55 and fall towards 3.53-3.50 or lower.

Natural Gas (3.09) continues to dip. Support is at 3.00. While that holds, a bounce-back towards 3.30-3.40 can be seen.

6:00 11:30 UK Unemp
Expn 4.5% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 4.3%

12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.6%

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 4.0%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.0% …Previous 0.4%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 79.8% …Expected 79.6% …Previous 79.7%

20:00 1:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – …Expected 76.8$ …Previous 8.8$

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn -0.36% …Expected -0.50% …Previous -0.52% …Actual -0.26%

9:00 14:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected 5.4 …Previous 3.5 …Actual 11.9