Dollar Index and Euro continue to trade within 105-106.50 and 1.06-1.05 while USDJPY and Aussie could attempt to rise towards the upper end of the mentioned ranges of 148-150 and 0.63-0.64 before falling from there. Pound has started to dip from 1.2220 which if holds can be bearish for the currency in the next few sessions. EURJPY has risen well and can test resistance at 158.50 from where a decline looks possible. USDCNY is finding it difficult to sustain above 7.3150 and hence could see some near term trade within 7.28-7.3150. USDRUB may trade within 96-100. EURINR has risen above 88 and needs to sustain the rise to head towards 88.50, else can be bearish for a fall to 87.50 soon. We are cautious on USDINR to see a breakout above 83.30 soon rising towards 83.40/50. Till then it can range within 83.30-83.20.

Dollar Index (106.19) could be bearish towards 105.50 while below 106.50

EURUSD (1.0574) is likely to trade within 1.06-1.05 with immediate resistance seen at 1.06. Thereafter, a break above 1.06 is needed for further upmove.

EURJPY (158.29) has risen as expected and could test resistance near 158.50 which if holds can take it down towards 157 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (149.69) has support near 148.90 and while the pair sustains higher, it can slowly rise to 150 or higher soon.

USDCNY (7.3015) is finding it difficult to sustain above 7.31 and has instead dipped slightly. The pair could be ranged within the narrow 7.28-7.3150 region for the near term unless volatility picks up.

Aussie (0.6370) has resistance at 0.64 which if holds can produce a fall towards 0.63. Range trade within 0.64-0.63 can hold for some more time.

Pound (1.2174) is falling from 1.2220 over the last 2-sessions. Above 1.2220, there is resistance at 1.23 which is likely to hold well over the next 2-weeks. Downside has enough scope for a fall to 1.21-1.20 over the rest of the month. Broad range of 1.20-1.23 can hold for the coming weeks.

USDRUB (98.0432) has risen well above immediate support at 96. There could be scope to rise back to 99-100 o the upside.

We continue to remain cautious on USDINR (83.2625) which is trading within the narrow range of 83.30-83.20 now and could have scope to see a sharp movement soon on either side. Bias is to see an upside break to test 83.40/50 on the upside. Watch price action this week near 83.30.

EURINR (88.0366) has risen to our expected resistance near 88. The pair will have to see a sustained upmove above 88 to rise higher towards 88.50 else an immediate fall from current levels can take it down towards 87.50 again.

The US Treasury yields have surged and are coming closer to their key intermediate resistances. A strong break above the upcoming resistances can trigger more rise. The German yields have also risen sharply. A strong follow-through rise from here can take them further higher. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support and keeps alive the chances of further rise from here. The 5Yr is also holding above its support but could remain vulnerable to fall if it fails to bounce strongly from current levels.

The US 10Yr (4.83%) and the 30Yr (4.92%) yields have surged and are coming closer to 4.85% and 5% respectively as expected. A break above 4.9% (10Yr) and 5% (30Yr) if seen now can take the yields up to 5%-5.1% (10Yr) and 5.1%-5.2% (30Yr). We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.88%) and the 30Yr (3.04%) have risen further. The 10Yr can rise to 3% while it sustains above 2.8%. The 30Yr can touch 3.2%-3.25% on a break above 3.1%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3264%) is holding above 7.3% and keeps alive the chances of testing 7.38%-7.4%. The 5Yr GOI (7.3493%) is also holding above 7.3% but needs a close watch as a break below 7.3% can drag it down to 7.2% and negate the view of the rise to 7.4%.

Dow Jones has come down whereas Nifty lacks strength to move up above 19850 but while above the support at 33800-33700 (Dow) and 19600 (Nifty), the outlook will remain bullish. DAX needs a strong rise above 15350 to clear the path for further upside. Nikkei and Shanghai are likely to be range bound for some time.

Dow (33997.65, +0.04%) has come down from the high of 34147. But while above the 33800-33700 support zone, the outlook is bullish to see 34300-34400 on the upside.

DAX (15251.69, +0.09%) continues to get support at 15100. A strong rise above 15350 from here will clear the way for a rise to 15500-15600.

Nifty (19811.50, +0.40%) is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise. But while above 19600 we would retain our bullish view to see 20000 on the upside.

Nikkei (31970.50, -0.13%) has fallen back from a high of 32260.77. A range of 31500-32500 is likely to hold for a while before breaking higher towards 33000.

Shanghai (3070.70, -0.41%) is gradually inching down towards 3060. Immediate support is at 3050. While that holds, we expect a range of 3050-3100/3125 to persist for some time.

Commodities have risen amid the Israel and Gaza war conflict. Crude prices have risen back to levels above $ 91 (Brent) and $ 87 (WTI) respectively and may look to rise further from here. Gold and Silver have broken above their crucial resistance at 1950 and 23 respectively and while this break sustains, outlook is bullish to see further highs in the near term. Copper has bounced back from the support at 3.53 and looks bullish to rise towards 3.70. Natural gas has bounced back as the support at 3.0 has held well.

Brent ($ 91.67) did not fall towards $ 88-87 as expected. Instead has risen back towards $ 92. A rise towards $ 94-95 looks likely now.

WTI ($ 87.31) is consolidating within $ 88-85 contrary to our view. A sustained break above $ 88, if seen, can lead to a rise towards $ 90 or higher.

Gold (1953.90) has risen back from a low of 1924.60 and is breaking above the resistance at 1950. While this break sustains, a rise towards 1990 can be seen.

Silver (23.26) bounced back from the level of 22.54 and has broken above the resistance at 23. While above 23, outlook is bullish for a rise towards 24.

Copper (3.6125) tested a low of 3.5315 in line with expectations and has risen back from there to level above 3.60. While above 3.60, a rise towards 3.70 looks possible.

Natural Gas (3.0890) has bounced back a bit after testing a low of 3.0240. As long as it remains above the support at 3.00, view is bullish to see a rise towards 3.20 or higher.

2:00 7:30 CN IIP (YoY)
Expn – …Expected 4.3% …Previous 4.5%

2:00 7:30 CN Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 5.0% …Previous 4.6%

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 6.4% …Expected 6.6% …Previous 6.7%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 4.8% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 5.2%

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1289K …Expected 1380K …Previous 1283K

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
12:30 18:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.8% …Actual 0.7%

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn 4.2% …Expected 4.0% …Previous 4.0% …Actual 3.8%

13:15 18:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.0% …Previous 0.0% …Actual 0.3%

13:15 18:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 79.8% …Expected 79.6% …Previous 79.5% …Actual 79.7%

20:00 1:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – …Expected 76.8$ …Previous 8.8$