Dollar Index can rise towards 107 while Euro has scope to fall to 1.05 or lower. EURJPY has declined from resistance at 158.50 and looks bearish for a fall to 157 while USDJPY needs to break above 150 to move higher else can decline to 148 again. Aussie and Pound look bearish towards 0.62 and 1.21 respectively. USDCNY can see a slow rise towards 7.35. USDRUB may trade within 96-100. EURINR has fallen below 88 and head towards 87.50-87.00. We remain cautious on USDINR to see a breakout above 83.30 soon rising towards 83.40/50. Till then it can range between 83.30-83.20.

Dollar Index (106.583) has risen above 106.50 which if sustains can take it higher towards 107 or higher soon.

EURUSD (1.0536) has fallen below 1.0550 and has scope to decline to 1.05 or lower in the near term.

EURJPY (157.86) has declined from 158.50 and has scope to decline towards 157 in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (149.82) has sustained above 149.50 but needs to necessarily rise past 150 to move up towards crucial resistance of 151/152 before a long term reversal is seen. Failure to rise past 150 will take it back to 149-148 again.

USDCNY (7.3133) has reversed back while above 7.30 and has fair chances of moving towards 7.35 soon.

Aussie (0.6298) is holding well below the resistance at 0.64 and could decline towards 0.62 if the fall sustains for a few more sessions. Overall 0.62-0.64 range may hold for the next 1-2 weeks.

Pound (1.2132) has fallen from levels seen yesterday. A fall to 1.21-1.2050 can be possible. View is likely to be bearish.

USDRUB (97.4201) has dipped below 98 and could test support near 96 again. The immediate range of 96-100 (broader range of 96-102.50) may hold for the next few sessions while the pair remains highly volatile.

USDINR (83.2625) continues to trade within a narrow range of 83.20-83.30 but is expected to break on the upside soon in case of a failure to fall below 83.20 and would increase possibilities of a rise towards 83.40/50.

EURINR (87.7458) has come down from 88.20 while the resistance at 88.25/50 stands well. While below 88, it can fall towards 87.5 or lower soon.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up sharply. The outlook is bullish, and both the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a sideways range for some time. A breakout of the range will determine the next move.

The US 10Yr (4.94%) and the 30Yr (5.02%) yields have risen sharply and are above 4.9% and 5% respectively. They can now test 5%-5.1% (10Yr) and 5.1%-5.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.92%) and the 30Yr (3.09%) are continuing to move up. The 10Yr is heading towards 3% as expected. The 30Yr can rise to 3.2%-3.25% on a break above 3.1%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3465%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3595%) can oscillate in a range of 7.3%-7.4% and 7.3%-7.4%/7.45% respectively for some time.

Major equities have fallen. Dow Jones and Nifty have declined below 33700 and 19700 but have supports at 33400 and 19600. Need to see if the support holds or not. DAX, Nikkei and Shanghai have fallen breaking below their support levels and look vulnerable to come down further in the near term.

Dow (33665.08, -0.98%) has declined below 33700. Key support to watch is at 33400 which if broken can drag it down to 33000-32850 again. That will negate the rise to 34300-34400 that we have been expecting.

DAX (15094.91, -1.03%) has declined below 15100 and looks vulnerable to extend the fall to 14800-14700 and even lower.

Nifty (19671.10, -0.71%) is stuck between 19600 and 19850. A break below 19600 (on the back of global weakness) can drag it down to 19450-19400. That would delay/negate the rise to 20000 for some time.

Nikkei (31441.00, -1.88%) has declined, breaking below the support at 31500. It can now fall towards 30500.

Shanghai (3032.75, -0.85%) has broken below the lower end of the 3050-3100/3125 range. Immediate support is seen at 3025. It looks vulnerable to a break below 3025 and fall towards 3000-2985 before a bounce back can be seen.

Brent have come down after testing a high of $ 93 but downside seems limited to $ 90-89 which will keep our bullish view intact for a further rise on the upside. WTI lacks strength to rise above $ 88 but outlook remain bullish to see an eventual break above $ 88 and rise towards $ 90 or higher. Gold and Silver outlook remains bullish for the near term. Copper and Natural gas is to be range bound for a while.

Brent ($ 90.98) rose sharply to $ 93 yesterday and has come down from there to trade below $ 91. Immediate support is at $ 90-89 region. While above $ 89, a rise towards $ 94-95 can be seen.

WTI ($ 86.95) is lacking strength to rise above $ 88. Immediate support is at $ 86. While that holds, a break above $ 88 and rise towards $ 90 or higher is possible.

Gold (1960.20) has risen further above 1960. View is bullish for a rise towards 1985-1990 from here.

Silver (22.99) has come down from a high of 23.49. Immediate support is at 22.75-22.60. While that holds, view will remain bullish for a rise towards 24.

Copper (3.5820) has declined after testing a high of 3.6305 yesterday contrary to our view for a rise towards 3.70. Outlook is mixed. A range of 3.65-3.50 is likely to hold for some time.

Natural Gas (3.07) has managed to sustain above the support at 3.00 but lacks a follow through rise above 3.15. A sideways range of 3.00-3.20 may hold for some time with a bit bullish view.

1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn 34.4K …Expected 20.9K …Previous 64.9K

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
Expn -2.8 …Expected -6.7 …Previous -13.5

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3912K …Expected 3890K …Previous 4040K

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
2:00 7:30 CN IIP (YoY)
Expn – …Expected 4.3% …Previous 4.5% …Actual 4.5%

2:00 7:30 CN Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 5.0% …Previous 4.6% …Actual 5.5%

6:00 11:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 6.4% …Expected 6.6% …Previous 6.7% …Actual 6.6%

9:00 14:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 4.8% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 5.2% …Actual 4.3%

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1289K …Expected 1380K …Previous 1269K …Actual 1358K