FED suggested an extended pause in the interest rates. The Dollar Index trades above 106 can rise towards 107 or higher while Euro is headed towards resistance at 1.06 and could face a decline soon. EURJPY continues to trade within 157-159 region. USDJPY needs to break above 150 to rise towards 150.50-151. USDCNY has sustained above 7.30 and can continue to rise towards 7.32 +. Pound can rise towards 1.22 while Aussie can test 0.6280 on the downside. USDRUB can rise towards 99-100 while above 96 else can show signs of decline in case of a fall below 96 if seen in the near term. USDINR has shown a dip to 83.08 on the NDF markets overnight. Could that indicate a possible decline from resistance at 83.30 towards support at 83.00? Could possibly be so in today’s session. In that case the expected break on the upside may not happen just now.

Dollar Index (106.274) could not sustain its break past 106.5 and started to decline; but as long as it sustains above 106-105.90, view remains bullish to see a rise towards 107 or higher eventually. A fall below 106 if seen could take it down towards 105.5.

EURUSD (1.0577) tested 1.0616 yesterday but could not sustain higher and instead fell from there to current levels. Failure to sustain above 1.06-1.0650 could lead to a fall towards 1.055-1.05.

EURJPY (158.48) tested the high of 158.93 before coming down . Unless a strong break past 159 is seen, it could continue to trade within 157-159 region.

Dollar-Yen (149.83) Has remained flat in the last 2-3 sessions but the view remains intact to necessarily see a rise past 150 to move up towards crucial resistance of 151/152 before a long-term reversal is seen. Else, failure to rise past 150 will drag it back to 149 or lower again.

USDCNY (7.3152) is slowly inching towards 7.32 and while above 7.27, view remains bullish for it to see a rise towards 7.35.

Aussie (0.6321) is declining as expected and while the resistance at 0.64 stands, view remains bearish to see a fall towards 0.6280. Overall, it may continue to trade within the broad 0.62-0.64 region for a while.

Pound (1.2140) has reversed back after seeing a sharp fall towards 1.2090 and if the rise is sustains then it can test 1.22 on the upside before eventually coming down. Towards 1.21-1.2050.

USDRUB (96.15) is unable to see a strong rise past 98 but while it sustains above 96, a possible rise to 99-100 is more likely to happen. An attempt to fall below 96 could be an equal possibility. A fall below 96, if seen can trigger a fall to 94 initially before our expected upmove is seen. Watch price action at 96 for more clarity.

USDINR (83.25) dipped to 83.08 on the NDF markets overnight that currently quotes 83.10. If resistance at 83.30 holds, a fall to 83.10-83.00 could be a possibility in today’s session. Watch price action today while below 83.30. This would negate a possible break above 83.30 just now, that we have been warning for over the last few sessions.

EURINR (87.9759) has immediate resistance at 88 below which it is likely to decline back towards 87.50. Immediate range of 87.50-88 and broader range of 87-88.50 may hold for now.

The US Treasury and the German yields remain bullish and are continuing to move up in line with our expectation. There is room for them to rise more. Jerome Powell in a speech yesterday reiterated to maintain tight policy until the central bank reaches its inflation target. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their respective range. They are likely to remain in the range for some time.

The US 10Yr (4.97%) and the 30Yr (5.08%) yields continue to move up. We retain our view of the yields touching 5%-5.1% (10Yr) and 5.1%-5.2% (30Yr) in the coming days.

The German 10Yr (2.93%) and the 30Yr (3.10%) yields sustain higher. The 10Yr can test 3%. The 30Yr can see an extended rise to 3.2%-3.25% on a break above 3.1%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3720%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3790%) are moving up within their respective 7.3%-7.4% and 7.3%-7.4%/7.45% range. A breakout on either side of the range will determine the next move.

Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei continues to fall and remain bearish to fall further. Nifty can test 19450-19400 following the weakness in the global markets. Shanghai came down towards 2985 as expected and is bouncing back from there.

Dow (33414.17, -0.75%) continues to fall. It looks vulnerable to break 33400 and extend the fall to 33000-32850.

DAX (15045.23, -0.33%) has come down further. Our bearish view of seeing 14800-14700 and even lower levels remain intact.

Nifty (19624.70, -0.24%) broke 19600 but did not sustain. But a test of 19450-19400 looks possible following the weakness in the global markets. From there a bounce is possible.

Nikkei (31372.50, -0.18%) has declined further. Outlook is bearish to see a fall towards 30500 or even lower towards 30100-30000.

Shanghai (3000.56, -0.16%) dropped to 2989.50 in line with our expectations for a fall towards 3000-2985 and is bouncing back from there. While it holds above 2985, a rise back towards 3070-3075 can be seen.

Brent and WTI have risen well as expected but needs to rise past $ 94-95 and $ 90 respectively to clear path for further upside. Gold and Silver continues to rise and remain bullish for the near term. Copper looks mixed and may remain range bound for some time. Natural gas has broken below the crucial support at 3.00 and looks vulnerable to fall more from here.

Brent ($ 93.09) has risen towards $ 94 as expected. The level of $ 94-95 are immediate resistance, which if holds, can lead to a fall back towards $ 90-89. A strong rise past $ 95 is needed to move up towards $ 97-98.

WTI ($ 89.21) has broken above $ 88 and is heading towards $ 90 as expected. A sustained break above $ 90 can take it higher towards $ 94-95. Else a fall back towards $ 86-85 cannot be negated.

Gold (1990.30) has risen to 1990 as expected. A further rise to 2025-2030 looks likely from here.

Silver (23.21) has risen back above 23 as the support mentioned at 22.75 has held well. View remain bullish for a rise towards 24.

Copper (3.5835) remains mixed. A range of 3.65-3.50 is likely to persist for the near term.

Natural Gas (2.9440) has broken below the support at 3.00 contrary to our view to see a sideways trade within 3.00-3.20 range with a bit bullish view. While this break sustains, a dip towards 2.80 can be seen.

23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -16 …Expected -20 …Previous -21

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn 3.2 …Expected – …Previous 3.1

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
1:30 7:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn 34.4K …Expected 20.9K …Previous 64.9K …Actual 6.7K

12:30 18:00 US Philifed Index
Expn -2.8 …Expected -6.7 …Previous -13.5 …Actual -9.0

14:00 19:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3912K …Expected 3890K …Previous 4040K …Actual 3960K