Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 107-106 and 1.06-1.05 respectively while EURJPY ca be bearish below 159. USDJPY can test 149 before rising higher again. USDCNY looks stable. Pound is headed towards 1.21 which if breaks on the downside could be bearish towards 1.2050-1.20. Aussie can trade within 0.63-0.64 for the near term. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.00 and rise towards 96-98. USDINR may trade within 83.00-83.30 with decent support in the 82.80-83.00 region. EURINR can trade within 87.30-88.50

Dollar Index (106.58) has been fluctuating below 107 over the last 3-sessions, unable to fall sharply or break higher. A possible sideways consolidation can be possible between 106-107 region for sometime before breaking on either side of the range.

EURUSD (1.0563) almost tested 1.06 on Friday but has not been able to sustain and instead fell slightly. Overall near term range of 1.06-1.05 may hold for the week. Sustained trade above 1.05-1.0550 is needed for Euro to eventually move up.

EURJPY (158.04) looks bearish while below 159 and can possibly be headed towards 157 or lower in the coming sessions. 160 seems to have made a decent top for the next couple of weeks at least.

Dollar-Yen (149.62) could extend its fall to 149 before bouncing back towards 151-152 again in the near term.

USDCNY (7.3173) has been largely stable over the past 19-20 sessions. The pair is finding difficulty to break above 7.32 and sustain higher. 7.32-7.29 could be an immediate range to look for.

Aussie (0.6353) trades above 0.63 and has scope to test 0.64 or even 0.6450 before falling back towards 0.63 or lower again. Broad range of 0.62-0.6450 and narrow range of 0.63-0.64 can hold for the near term.

Pound (1.2113) seems to be falling again towards 1.21 and could be on the verge of breaking lower from here. A sustained trade below 1.21 could take it down towards 1.2050-1.20 soon. Overall view is bearish below 1.22.

USDRUB (94.4250) is holding above 92 and could attempt to rise towards 96-98 soon. View is bullish above 92.

USDINR (83.25) fell towards 83 last week but has bounced back again to 83.20-83.30 region seen earlier. The pair is finding it difficult to move on either side of the 83.00-83.30 region. A breakout when seen is likely to be very sharp and volatile.

EURINR (87.9478) has very near-term support at 87.30 above which view can be bullish for a rise to 88.50.

The US Treasury yields are struggling to see a strong follow-through rise above their immediate resistances. They might come down and remain in a range for some time. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome on Wednesday will need a close watch. The German yields have dipped slightly. But the view remains bullish to see more rise from here before a correction happens. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable within their sideways range.

The US 10Yr (4.87%) and the 30Yr (5.03%) yields remain stable. The 10Yr is struggling to breach 5%. It can remain in a range of 4.8%-5% or 4.6%-5%. The 30Yr can be in the range of 4.9%-5.1% or 4.8%-5.1%.

The German 10Yr (2.83%) yield has dipped slightly while the 30Yr (3.11%) have dipped slightly. Bullish view is intact to see 3% (10Yr) and 3.2%-3.25% (30Yr) on the upside and then a correction.

The 10Yr GoI (7.3576%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.3502%) yields remain stable within their 7.3%-7.4% and 7.3%-7.4%/7.45% range respectively.

Dow Jones and Nikkei look vulnerable to a fall to their support before a possible bounce back can happen. DAX outlook remain weak. Nifty has risen back but needs to overcome 19200 to ease the downside pressure. Shanghai has to break above 3025 to strengthen the momentum further.

Dow (32417.59, -1.12%) has fallen well below 32600. It can extend the fall to 32000-31800 and then possibly see a bounce.

DAX (14687.41, -0.30%) is heading down towards 14500 as expected. The outlook is weak to see 14200-14000 on the downside with intermediate bounces.

Nifty (19047.25, +1.01%) has bounced on Friday. It has to surpass 19200 to ease the downside pressure. Else it will continue to remain under pressure to see 18700-18600.

Nikkei (30603.50, -1.25%) has fallen back after facing rejection from 31000. Outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 30000 in the near term before a bounce back can happen.

As expected, Shanghai (3005.93, -0.39%) tested 3025 and has fallen back from there. A break above 3025 is needed to see further rise towards 3050-3060.

Brent and WTI remains range bound. Gold and Silver have risen well and have scope to rise further in the near term. Copper has scope to test its crucial resistance before a reversal can be seen. Natural gas can dip towards 3.15-3.10.

Brent ($ 89.68) remains ranged below $ 91. A break above the upper end of the $ 91-87 range can lead to a further rise towards $ 93.

WTI ($ 84.48) remains range bound within $ 86-82. A break on either side of the range of will decide if it rise towards $ 88 or fall towards $ 80.

Gold (2013.80) has risen well towards 2020. Outlook remains bullish for a rise towards 2025-2030. Immediate support is at 1990.

Silver (23.25) has risen above 23. A further rise towards 23.50-24 can be seen. Overall a range of 22.50-24 could persist for some time.

Copper (3.6515) is attempting to break above the upper end of the 3.65-3.55 range. A test of 3.68-3.70 look likely in the near term before a reversal can be seen.

Natural Gas (3.3780) tested 3.6430 than our expected test of 3.60-3.62 on the upside and has come down sharply from there. If the fall sustains, a dip towards 3.15-3.10 can be seen.

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 93.3

DATA FRIDAY:
————–
1:30 7:00 AU PPI
Expn – …Expected 0.7% …Previous 0.5% …Actual 1.8%

12:30 18:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.4% …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.3%

12:30 18:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.3%