Dollar Index needs to rise and sustain above 104 to maintain its bullishness else a fall back to 102.50 can be seen. Euro has broken below 1.08 and could be bearish to 1.07-1.06 if the Dollar Index rises past 104. EURJPY failed to rise past 160 and is headed towards 158. Dollar Yen is rising as expected and could soon test 148/149 before reversing towards 147/146. USDCNY continues to trade between 7.12-7.15/16 but has fair scope to test 7.16/17 before reversing from there. Aussie is declining as expected and can soon test 0.6450 while below 0.67. Pound trades at crucial support at 1.26 which if broken on the downside could be bearish. USDRUB has fallen back but downside seems limited to 90-88. EURINR has dipped slightly below 90 and could be bearish to 89. USDINR continues to trade within 83.25-83.40.

Dollar Index (103.977) tested 104.09 yesterday but it would be important to see if it sustains trade above 104 in the coming sessions. Above 104, a rise to 105-106 can be seen else a fall back to 102.5-102 could be witnessed, while it trades below 104.

EURUSD (1.0789) has broken below our expected level at 1.08 and a further fall to 1.07-1.06 could be seen in the medium term if the fall continues.

EURJPY (158.89) could not rise past 160 and is currently trading below 159. Here on, whether it bounces back or falls further towards 158 will have to be seen. Immediate range of 160-158 could hold for the next few sessions.

Dollar-Yen (147.25) is rising as expected from support at 146 and can test 148/149 before a reversal to 147/146 could be seen again in the medium term. Overall near term could see some consolidation.

USDCNY (7.1539) could briefly test 7.16/17 before coming off from there back towards 7.12/10.

Aussie (0.6586) has bounced well from 0.6550 but while below 0.67, view is likely to remain bearish with a possible downside of 0.6450.

Pound (1.2601) has been falling sharply from 1.27 and could be headed towards 1.25/1.24 in the coming sessions if the fall continues below 1.26. Else an immediate bounce from current level is needed for a rise back to 1.27.

USDRUB (92.1830) has declined sharply from a high of 92.62. However, downside could be limited to 90-88. While above 88, view remains bullish for a rise towards 94.

USDINR (83.3875) closed yesterday’s session at 83.3875 with a days high at 83.40.If the pair holds below 83.40, a fall to 83.30/25 can be seen today else a break past 83.40, if allowed by the RBI will see fresh upside targets of 83.50/60.

EURINR (89.9453) has dipped slightly below the mentioned support of 90 and could continue to fall lower towards 89 if it fails to sustain the current levels and rise from here immediately.

Lower US Job opening data (JOLTS), and dovish comments from FED officials over the last few days have priced in a possible end of the rate hike cycle by the Fed as markets now expect a possible rate cut as soon as Mar-24. The US Treasury yields have fallen sharply and could continue to fall some more in the coming sessions. The German and Indian GOI have also declined and look bearish for the next few sessions.

The US 10Yr (4.195%) and the 30Yr (4.317%) yields have plunged from levels seen yesterday after the US job openings data (JOLTS) came out lower increasing expectations of markets to see a possible end of rate hike cycle by the FED and that rate cut may soon start by Mar-24. Our expected fall towards 4.1%-4% and 4.2%-4.15% respectively seems to be in play, indicating some more fall in the near term.

The German 10Yr (2.249%) and the 30Yr (2.441%) yields have also declined sharply breaking below our expected levels of 2.30% and 2.5% respectively as mentioned in yesterday’s edition. Immediate view is bearish for a further fall to 2.20/2.10% (10Yr) and 2.40/2.30% before a pause is seen.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2571%) and 5Yr GOI (7.2416%) had declined yesterday and could continue to dip today also. The 10Yr can fall to 7.24/22% while the 5Yr yield could have scope to test 7.22/20%.

Dow Jones can fall back if it fails to sustain above 36000 and rise past 36200. DAX has entered into the crucial resistance zone of 16600 which might halt the current rally. Nifty continues to rise and has room to target further upside. Nikkei has recovered after 3 consecutive fall but could face rejections from 33500. Shanghai has declined as expected and may see a test of key support in the near term before a reversal can happen.

Dow (36124.57, -0.22%) struggles to rise above 36200 but sustains above 36000. As long as it holds above 36000, there is potential for a break above 36200 and rise towards 36500. Else it can fall towards 35500 .

DAX (16533.11, +0.78%) has entered into the crucial resistance zone of 16600. While that holds, a corrective dip towards 16300-16200 can be seen. Else a break higher, if seen, can target 17000 before reversing back from there.

Nifty (20855.10, +0.81%) has risen further above 20800. View remains bullish for a rise towards 21000 in the near term. Downside seems limited to 20650-20600.

Nikkei (33365, +1.80%) has recovered from a low of 32726.68 but could face resistance at 33500. While that holds, view remains bearish for a fall towards 32500 or even lower to 32000.

Shanghai (2974.10, +0.06%) fell sharply to 2959.60 and is bouncing back from there. However, view is bearish to see a test of key support 2930-2925 before a reversal can happen.

Crude prices are trading near their key supports. Failure to hold above them can be vulnerable to see deeper fall in the coming sessions. Gold, Silver and Natural gas remain bearish for the near term. Copper has bounced back slightly but upside looks capped at 3.82-3.84 region.

Brent ($ 77.41) is hovering above the support at $ 77. While that holds, the $ 77-85 range may persist for some time. Else a further fall towards $ 75-74-73 levels can be seen.

WTI ($ 72.49) is near the key support at $ 72-71.50. If these holds, a bounce back towards $ 78 can be seen. Else it can break lower towards $ 70 or even $ 66-65.

Gold (2038.70) fell to a low of 2027.60 yesterday and has risen back slightly from there. View remains bearish for a fall to 2025-2000 before a bounce back can happen.

Silver (24.59) has dipped further. A test 24 looks likely before a pause can be seen.

Copper (3.8025) broke below 3.80 as expected and fell to a low of 3.77 before bouncing back a bit from there. Immediate resistance is at 3.82-3.84 region. While that holds, a fall towards 3.76-3.72 looks possible.

Natural Gas (2.6910) rose to test a high of 2.7860 before pulling back from there. View remains bearish for a fall towards 2.60-2.50 while below 2.80. Thereafter we can expect a reversal.

22:30 4:00 AU PMI
Expn -24.2 …Expected – …Previous -20.9

0:30 6:00 AU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.40% …Previous 0.36%

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 0.2% …Previous -0.3%

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected 126K …Previous 113K

13:30 19:00 US Trade Balance
Expn $ -64.1 bln …Expected $ -64.1 bln …Previous $ -61.5 bln

14:00 19:30 BOC Meeting
Expn – …Expected 5.00% …Previous 5.00%

DATA YESTERDAY:
————–
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 59.5 …Expected 58.0 …Previous 58.4 …Actual 56.9

3:30 9:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.35% …Previous 4.35% …Actual 4.35%