Dollar Index has moved up well above 102 and could test 103-103.50 before coming off while Euro is bearish below 1.0965 for a fall towards 1.0850/1.08. EURJPY is headed towards its upper end of the 154-158 range while USDJPY is expected to fall on testing 144/145. Aussie can rise towards 0.68 but Pound may dip within the 1.2550-1.28 region. USDCNY needs to break past 7.15/16 to maintain its bullishness, else would be vulnerable to see the lower levels of 7.12-7.10 soon. USDRUB could test 91 soon. USDINR tested 82.90 before rising back. There could be some chances of a decline from 83.15/20 again. EURINR is bearish while below 91.

Dollar Index (102.585) has been trading below 102.65 over the yesterday and today so far. A break above 102.65 is needed to take it higher to 103-103.50 before again falling back from there towards 102.

EURUSD (1.0916) trades below 1.0950 and could well extend its fall towards 1.0850/1.08 in the near term.

EURJPY (156.69) is rising as expected and looks headed towards 158 soon. Thereafter a break on the either side will be needed to get a clarity in the view, else the range of 154-158 may persist for a while.

Dollar-Yen (143.47) has risen as expected and could test 144 or higher to 145 in the near term before pausing.

USDCNY (7.1411) has been rising slowly as expected and could test 7.15/16 in the next few sessions. Thereafter, a further break past 7.16 would be needed to make the outlook bullish to 7.19/20. Else, a fall to 7.12/10 could be seen from 7.16.

Aussie (0.6721) seems to be steadily rising above 0.67 and could soon test 0.6750-0.68.

Pound (1.2655) is holding well below immediate resistance at 1.28. Downside scope of 1.2550 is there but if Pound bounces back from 1.26 itself, it can move back towards 1.27-1.2750 again in the next few sessions. Overall broad range of 1.28-1.26/2550 may hold for the near term.

USDRUB (90.5267) remained flat yesterday and may continue to trade so today also. There is scope to test 91 in the next few sessions. The immediate range of 89-91 may hold for now.

USDINR (83.0650) tested the mentioned support of 82.90 before reversing from there. 83.15/20 could be an interim resistance which if holds can again produce a fall towards 83.00-82.90. Sustained rise above 83.15/20 will again rise scope of rise towards 83.30/40. For now, watch price action at 83.15/20 for a fall.

EURINR (90.7753) saw a corrective rise from 90.50 yesterday but overall trend remains down below 91 with potential fall to 90-89.50 in the near term.

The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly but are unlikely to sustain. We expect the yields to see more fall in the coming days. The German yields have bounced back well from their support. If this sustains further rise is possible this week. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remained lower but stable. Outlook is bearish to see more fall from here.

The US 10Yr (3.94%) and the 30Yr (4.05%) yields have inched up slightly. View remains bearish to see 3.6% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) on the downside while below 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.08%) and the 30Yr (2.27%) yields have bounced back well and the support at 2% and 2.2% is holding well. A further rise from here can take them up to 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) this week.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1584%) and 5Yr GOI (7.0834%) remains lower. View is bearish to see 7.1% (10Yr) and 7%-6.95% (5Yr).

Dow Jones and DAX outlook is bullish while above the support 37000-36900 and 16600-16500 respectively. Nifty remain bullish for a test of its immediate resistance. Shanghai is attempting to break below the support at 2925. Nikkei is bearish while below the resistance at 33000-33500.

Dow (37306.02) was stuck in a narrow range yesterday. Support is at 37000-36900. Bias is bullish to break 37500 and see a rise to 38000 in the short-term and 39000-39200 in the medium-term.

DAX (16650.55, -0.60%) is coming down but at a slow pace. Support is at 16600-16500 while above which the outlook is bullish to see 17000 and 17400.

Nifty (21418.65, -0.18%) remained stable below 21500. A break above 21500 can take it up to 21700. Price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a reversal is happening. Support is now at 21200-21100.

Nikkei (32809.39, +0.15%) remains range bound within 32500-33100. View is bearish to see a break below 32500 and fall towards 31500 while below 33000-33500.

Shanghai (2929.89, -0.03%) is attempting to break below the support at 2925. A decisive break below 2925 can lead to a fall towards 2850.

Crude prices have come down from levels below their key resistance and have scope to fall from here. Gold can be range bound for a while with a bearish view. Silver looks bearish while below 24.50. Copper can test its lower end of the range before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas tested its key resistance as expected and has dipped from there.

Brent ($ 78.06) tested $ 79.51 in line with our view for a rise towards $ 80-81 and has come down from there to trade below $ 79. While below $ 80-81, view is bearish for a fall towards $ 75 or lower.

WTI ($ 72.81) tested $ 74.62 yesterday and has dipped below $ 73. A fall towards $ 70-68 can be seen while it remains below $ 75-76.

Gold (2038.20) is oscillating around 2040. A range of 2020-2060 can hold for some time with bearishness to see a break below 2020 and fall towards 2000-1980.

Silver (24.11) is inching lower. A fall towards 23.50 looks possible while below 24.50.

Copper (3.8540) has declined towards 3.84. A test of the lower end of the 3.92-3.80 range looks likely before a bounce back can happen.

Natural Gas (2.5140) tested 2.60 as expected and has dipped from there. It has to surpass 2.60 to reduce the downside pressure and to open doors towards 2.80-2.90. Else a fall towards 2.20 cannot be negated.

3:00 8:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected -0.10% …Previous -0.10%

10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 2.6% …Expected 2.4% …Previous 2.4%

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1366K …Expected 1360K …Previous 1372K

13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn 4.3% …Expected 2.9% …Previous 3.1%

21:00 2:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term $ Bln)
Expn – …Expected 45.8 …Previous -1.7

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 88.5 …Expected 87.8 …Previous 87.2 …Actual 86.4

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 90.1 …Expected 89.5 …Previous 89.4 …Actual 88.5

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 88.5 …Expected 85.8 …Previous 85.2 …Actual 84.3