The Dollar Index holds above 102 but could have some scope for a fall to 101.50 before eventually moving higher. Euro has moved up sharpy towards 1.10 after the release of softer EU CPI. EURJPY could not sustain its rise above 158 and is back within its range of 158-154, USDJPY tested 145 as expected before coming down. Aussie can rise towards 0.68 before facing rejection while Pound continues to trade within the 1.2550-1.28 region. USDCNY trades within 7.15-7.10 region for now. USDRUB could test 91 soon. USDINR seems to be holding below our mentioned resistance of 83.20 and could further test 83.10/83.00 again if the dip continues. EURINR has risen past 91 contrary to our expectation of seeing a fall and is now headed towards 91.50.

Dollar Index (102.206) has held above 102 for now but overall view remains bearish below 102.50 for a fall towards 101.50 before a reversal is seen towards 103 or higher.

EURUSD (1.0969) rose sharply contrary to seeing a fall towards 1.08 post the release of lower EU (YoY) CPI yesterday. Currently it is just below the crucial resistance of 1.10 which can produce a decline back to 1.09-1.0850.

EURJPY (157.78) broke past our expected 158 was indeed seen yesterday but it failed to sustain and dipped below 158. We may expect a revised range of 159-154 to hold for the near term.

Dollar-Yen (143.89) rose to our mentioned target of 145 before reversing from there. A further test to 143 or slightly lower could be seen if the fall continues. Else the pair may re-attempt to test 145 again.

USDCNY (7.1333) has been holding well below 7.15 for the past 4-5 sessions. While below 7.15, it could remain ranged within 7.15-7.10. A break above 7.15 is needed for the pair to rise further towards 7.17/18.

Aussie (0.6760) is rising in line with our expectations and could soon test 0.68 on the upside before facing any rejection.

Pound (1.2721) continues to trade below immediate resistance at 1.28/2750. A broad range of 1.28-1.26/2550 may continue to hold in the near term.

USDRUB (90.4738) has been trading flat since the last two sessions but there is scope to test 91 in the next few sessions. The immediate range of 89-91 may continue to hold for some more sessions.

USDINR (83.1850) tested 83.2175 before coming off a bit from there. Our mentioned resistance at 83.20 seems to be holding well for now but it must be seen if the pair falls back below 83.10 or holds higher for an eventual break above 83.20 in the coming sessions. Immediate trade within 83.20-83.00 looks possible.

EURINR (91.2411) has risen past 91, contrary to our expectation. A rise to 91.50-91.70 looks possible in the next few sessions followed by a fall towards 91-90.50 in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have dipped again. Bearish view is intact. More fall is on the cards. The US GDP data today and the PCE tomorrow are important to watch. The German yields have dipped again and are poised at their crucial supports. A further fall from here can trigger a deeper fall going forward. It is a wait and watch situation now. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are on a corrective bounce. Upside will be capped, and the bearish view remains intact.

The US 10Yr (3.91%) and the 30Yr (4.02%) yields have dipped again. Our bearish view is intact to see a fall to 3.6% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr) while the yields remain below 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.01%) and the 30Yr (2.20%) yields have fallen back again. A fall below 2% and 2.2% will trigger a deeper fall to 1.8%-1.7% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr) going forward.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1744%) and 5Yr GOI (7.1039%) are attempting to bounce. 7.20% (10Yr) and 7.13%-7.15% (5Yr) can cap the upside and keep the bearish view intact to see 7.1% (10Yr) and 7%-6.95% (5Yr) on the downside.

Dow Jones has risen sharply above 37500 and looks bullish to target new highs. DAX is bouncing back as the support at 16600 is holding well. Nifty is stuck in a narrow range over the last couple of days but broader outlook remains bullish to see a rise towards its resistance. Shanghai is threatening to break below the support at 2925. Nikkei has risen sharply breaking above the resistance at 33000-33500 but needs to surpass 34000 to strengthen the bullish momentum further.

Dow (37557.92, +0.68%) has broken 37500 as expected. While this break sustains, a further rise to 38000 (short-term) and 39000-39200 (medium-term) can be seen.

DAX (16744.41, +0.56%) is bouncing back. Support at 16600 is holding well as expected. Outlook is bullish to see 17000-17400.

Nifty (21453.10, +0.16%) is stuck between 21300 and 21500 over the last couple of days. Bias is positive to breach 21500 and rise to 21700. Price action thereafter will need a close watch.

Nikkei (33794.48, +1.73%) has risen sharply towards 33800 breaking above the upper end of the 32500-33100 range. A further break above 34000, if seen, can lead to a rise towards 34400-34500.

Shanghai (2927.09, -0.18%) remains subdued and is hovering above the support at 2925. A decisive break below 2925 can trigger a fall towards 2850.

Crude prices have risen towards their key resistance. Need to see if that holds and lead to a fall back or not. Gold and Silver appears range bound. Copper has scope to break above its immediate resistance and rise further on the upside. Natural Gas has bounced back sharply and can rally further on a break above the resistance at 2.60.

Brent ($ 79.15) is inching up towards the resistance at $ 80. A strong break above it, if seen, can see a rally towards $ 84. Else a fall back towards $ 75 or lower cannot be negated.

WTI ($ 74.11) has entered into the crucial resistance zone of $ 75. While that holds, a fall towards $ 70-68 can be seen. Only a break higher can see a rally towards $ 78-80.

Gold (2050.60) has bounced back towards 2060. A sustained break above 2060 is needed to move up towards 2075-2080. Else it can continue to be range bound within 2060-2020.

Silver (24.40) appears range bound within 24.00-24.50. A break on either side of the range will decide if it will rise towards 25 or falls towards 23.50.

Copper (3.9120) bounced back towards 3.92 from 3.84 itself contrary to our view to see a test of 3.80. It has scope to break above 3.92 and rise towards 4.00.

Natural Gas (2.5720) fell to 2.3850 yesterday before bouncing back sharply towards 2.60 again. A decisive break above 2.60 can open doors towards 2.80-2.90.

7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn 3.9% …Expected 4.3% …Previous 4.6%

13:30 19:00 US Current Account Balance
Expn – …Expected -197.0$ Bln …Previous -212.1$ Bln

15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3525K …Expected 3770K …Previous 3790K

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 104.1 …Expected 104.1 …Previous 102.0

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
3:00 8:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected -0.10% …Previous -0.10% …Actual -0.10%

10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 2.6% …Expected 2.4% …Previous 2.9% …Actual 2.4%

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1366K …Expected 1360K …Previous 1359K …Actual 1560K

13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn 4.3% …Expected 2.9% …Previous 3.1% …Actual 3.1%

21:00 2:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term $ Bln)
Expn – …Expected 45.8 …Previous -1.7