Dollar Index could be ranged for now but view is bearish below 102. Euro has moved above 1.10 but needs to sustain above current levels to see a further rise towards 1.11 else could decline back to 1.09 or lower. EURJPY and USDJPY if hold above their respective supports near 156 and 141, could have chance of seeing an initial rise before it continues to fall in the medium term. Aussie has risen back above 0.68 but needs to break past 0.6825/6830 to rise further towards 0.69. Pound may trade within its immediate range of 1.26-1.28 in the near term. USDCNY seems to be rising slowly but needs to break past 7.15 to be further bullish. USDRUB has declined, contrary to our expectations of seeing a rise towards 94. It could trade within the broad 94-88 region for the next few weeks. USDINR quotes 83.15 on the NDF and we can expect Rupee to trade within 83.00-83.40 for the near term with an interim range of 83.30-83.10. EURINR is near its resistance of 91.75/80 and can face a dip soon.

Dollar Index (101.85) seems to be holding above 101.40 for now but overall view continues to look bearish for a fall to 101 or slightly lower in the near term. Movement could be ranged and sideways for this week considering the Christmas holiday week. But we may expect volatility to pick up by first week of Jan-24.

EURUSD (1.1026) has risen above 1.10 but needs to sustain to rise towards 1.11. Failure to rise above 1.1050 could bring it down towards 1.0950-1.09 again soon.

EURJPY (156.80) could range between 156-157.30 for some sessions while Dollar-Yen (142.27) looks slightly tilted to the downside with a possible fall towards 141.40-141.00 soon. Such a fall could come in faster on continued weakness in the US Dollar.

USDCNY (7.1431) seems to be slowly rising back to 7.15 where the pair has been facing rejection over the past few sessions. A rise past 7.15 is needed for a rally to 7.18/20.

Aussie (0.6810) has managed to again break above 0.68 but needs to break past 0.6825/6830 to further rise towards 0.69 or higher. An immediate decline could take it back to 0.6750-0.67.

Pound (1.2695) has been rising as expected from support at 1.26. An immediate range of 1.26-1.28 may hold in the near term.

USDRUB (91.9650) is facing huge volatility. It tested sub 90 levels before rising back sharply to current level of 91.9650. Immediate resistance is seen at 93.50-94 below which a possible fall to 89/88 cannot be negated in the near term. Broad sideways range of 94-88 may hold for the next few weeks.

USDINR (83.1450) came off sharply on Friday after testing 83.30 a day before. We can expect a range of 83.00-83.30 to hold for the week.

EURINR (91.7131) has resistance near 91.80 which seems to be holding well, keeping the pair below it. If it falls from here, it could test 91.50-91.00 else a rise to 92 could be seen initially before the expected fall takes place.

The US Treasury yields remain lower and keep intact our bearish view. Further fall is likely in the coming days. The German yields have bounced slightly but are unlikely to sustain it. View is bearish and can resume the fall. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable within their narrow range. Bias is negative to break the range on the downside and see a fresh fall going forward.

The US 10Yr (3.89%) and the 30Yr (4.04%) yields remain lower and stable. Bearish view is intact to see a fall to 3.6% (10Yr) and 3.8% (30Yr). Resistances are at 4% and 4.2% (10Yr), 4.2% and 4.4% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (1.98%%) and the 30Yr (2.20%) yields have inched up slightly but are unlikely to sustain. We retain our bearish view of seeing a fall to 1.8%-1.7% (10Yr) and 1.9% (30Yr) while below 2% and 2.2% respectively.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1862%) remains within the 7.15%-7.2%/7.22% range. Bias is bearish to see a fall to 7.1%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0971%) retains its 7.06%-7.12% for now. We expect it to break 7.06% and fall to 7%-6.95%.

Dow Jones remains range bound but bias is bullish to see a break on the upside. DAX looks stable above its support and while above it, our bias will remain bullish. Nifty has risen above 21300 and has room to rise further from here. Shanghai could be range bound for a while. Nikkei remains stuck in a range of 33000-33500.

Dow (37385.97, -0.05%) remains within the 37000-37600 range. Bias is bullish to break 37600 and rise to 38000 and higher.

DAX (16706.18, +0.11%) remains stable above the 16600-16500 support. View remains bullish to see 17000-17400.

Nifty (21349.40, +0.44%) has risen above 21300. Good chances to test 21500-21700. Support is in the 21000-20800 region.

Nikkei (33241.50, -0.04%) remains stable between 33000-33500 range. We will wait for the range breakout to see if it will falls towards 32500 or rise towards 33800-34000.

Shanghai (2904.49, -0.48%) can trade within 2950-2875 for a while before a fall can be seen towards 2850.

Crude prices are unable to gather strength to rise above their key resistances. Gold remains higher and looks bullish for the test of immediate resistance in the near term. Silver has come down slightly but downside could be limited to 24.30-24.00. Copper looks range bound for a while. Natural Gas is attempting to break below the lower end of the range.

Brent ($ 78.98) unable to gather momentum to rise above $ 80. Only a clear break above $ 80 could see a rally towards $ 84. Else a fall back towards $ 76-75 cannot be negated.

WTI ($ 73.60) remains stable within $ 72-75/76. A clear breakout above $ 75-76 is needed to open doors towards $ 78-80. Else can fall towards $ 70.

Gold (2075.40) remains higher above 2060. View is bullish for a test of 2085-2090 or 2100 before a pause can be seen.

Silver (24.60) has come down slightly from last friday’s high of 24.90. But while above the support at 24.30-24.00, bias remains positive for a rise towards 25.30-25.50.

Copper (3.9235) lacks strength to rise above 3.95. It can be ranged within 3.95-3.90/3.85 for a while before moving up towards 4.00.

Natural Gas (2.4040) is attempting to break below the lower end of the 2.40-2.60 range. A decisive break below 2.40 can trigger a fall towards 2.20.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 2.5%

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 4.3% …Expected – …Previous 3.9%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
No major data released yesterday