The Dollar Index is holding below 102.72 and could dip to 102 or slightly lower before resuming a rise towards 103. Euro has bounced well from 1.09 and could rise towards 1.10 before pausing. EURJPY and USDJPY are bullish to 160 and 146 respectively. USDCNY rose above 7.17 but has dipped back from there. Unless it sustains rise past 7.17, it looks bearish for a fall back to 7.14/12. Aussie is near its support of 0.67 from where a bounce towards 0.675-0.68 is expected. Pound continues to trade within 1.26-1.28 region. USDRUB has declined from resistance at 92.60 and could now fall back towards 90-89. The range of 83.35-83.20/15 could hold in USDINR for now. EURINR has held the support at 90.80 and risen back. It could see a further rise towards 91.5 before possibly pausing. Important data releases to watch today are US NFP data and the US Avg Hourly Earnings.

Dollar Index (102.389) seems to be holding below 102.72 for now and could dip to 102 or slightly lower in the next couple of sessions but there could be some chances of a possible rise to 103 or higher post the expected immediate corrective dip.

EURUSD (1.0951) has bounced well from 1.09 and could test 1.10 on the upside before again falling back from there. We had mentioned a possibility of 1.08/1.07 yesterday but that would come into the picture only on a sustained break below 1.09 which seems less likely for the coming week. A range of 1.10-1.09 may hold for the next 1-week.

EURJPY (158.51) has risen past our mentioned target of 158 and looks likely to be headed towards 160 soon before a pause is seen.

Dollar-Yen (144.76) has risen well and could be headed to 146, the next upper target before a pause or reversal is seen.

USDCNY (7.1648) opened with a gap up above 7.17 but has dipped slightly from there. If the pair is unable to sustain a rise above 7.17, it could fall back to 7.14/12 again in the next week. Watch price action near current levels.

Aussie (0.6712) has come down to test 0.67 again. If 0.67 holds, we may expect a sort corrective rise to 0.6750/0.68 before resuming the fall towards 0.6650 or lower.

Pound (1.2687) tested 1.2729 before coming off from there. It could trade within 1.26-1.28 region for a few more sessions.

USDRUB (91.3516) has dipped below resistance at 92.60 mentioned yesterday. The fall could extend towards 90/89 in the near term.

USDINR (83.2350) dipped yesterday as expected. The range of 83.35-83.20/15 may continue to hold for the near term.

EURINR (91.1563) is steady and could attempt to rise to 91.50 before falling back from there again in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. A break above their immediate resistances can see an extended corrective rise going forward. The US NFP and the Unemployment data release today is important to watch. The German yields are moving up towards their resistances in line with our expectation. The yields can resume their downtrend after testing the resistance. The 10Yr GoI is coming close to its resistance from where we expect it to see a fresh leg of fall. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand continues to remain mixed and stable within the narrow range.

The US 10Yr (3.98%) and the 30Yr (4.14%) yields have risen back sharply. Need to see if the yields can breach 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) and see an extended corrective rise to 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.3%-4.4% (30Yr) or not.

The German 10Yr (2.12%%) and the 30Yr (2.34%) yields are rising towards (10Yr) and 2.4% (30Yr) as expected. The downtrend is likely to resume thereafter.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2208%) is coming close to the 7.24%-7.25% resistance. We expect the yields to turn-around and resume the downtrend targeting 7.1% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0985%) continues to remain stable and mixed within its 7.04%-7.13% range. View is bearish to see 7%-6.95% on the downside. Higher resistance is at 7.18%-7.2%.

Dow Jones keeps alive the chances of seeing a fall on the downside first before a fresh leg of rally happens again. DAX is in a wait and watch situation. Nifty has bounced back but needs a strong rise above 21700 to avoid the danger of falling below 21500 and to clear the path towards its resistance. Nikkei is expected to trade sideways within 32500-34000 with a bullish view. Shanghai appears range bound.

Dow (37440.34, +0.03%) has come down sharply from the high of 37716. This keeps alive the chances of seeing 37000 on the downside first before a fresh leg of rally happens again towards 38000.

DAX (16617.29, +0.48%) is holding above 16500 and has risen back. A rise above 16700 is needed to keep the bullish view intact of seeing 17200-17000 and negate the danger of the fall to 16000. Wait and watch.

Nifty (21658.60, +0.66%) is holding well above 21500 and has bounced. A strong rise above 21700 will reduce the danger of falling below 21500 and take the index up to 22000-22200.

Nikkei (33,505, +0.65%) has risen further to 33500. It is expected to trade sideways within 32500-34000 for a while. Within this, a rise towards the upper end of the range is possible.

Shanghai (2958.11, +0.14%) has bounced back towards 2970. It appears range bound within 2925-2975 (narrow) and 2900-3000 (broad).

Crude prices look mixed and are likely to be ranged for a while. Gold sustains higher above its key support and is expected to move further in the near term. Silver has bounced back but the support turned resistance might cap the upside. Copper remains subdued and is vulnerable while below the resistance at 3.88-3.90. Natural Gas has dipped slightly but overall outlook is bullish for the near term. Today key focus is on the US NFP data which could bring in some volatility for commodity market.

Brent ($ 77.98) remains mixed. A narrow range of $ 75-81 and a broad range of $ 73-81 is likely to persist for the near term.

WTI ($ 72.70) has fallen back after testing $ 74 yesterday. View is mixed. We expect it to remain ranged within $ 68-76 for some time.

Gold (2053.40) sustains higher above the support at 2040. While above 2040, a rise towards 2080 looks possible.

Silver (23.35) bounced back after testing a low of 22.88. However support turned resistance is seen at 23.40-23.50. Only a break past these levels could see a rise towards 24. Else it will remain vulnerable for a dip towards 22.80-22.50.

Copper (3.8490) is holding well below the resistance at 3.88-3.90. A fall to 3.80-3.78 or even 3.75 is possible while below 3.90.

Natural Gas (2.7890) has dipped slightly after testing a high of 2.8470. Bias is positive for a break above 2.80 and rise towards 3.00 in the near term.

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 60.6 …Expected 56.5 …Previous 56.9

13:30 19:00 US NFP
Expn 186K …Expected – …Previous 199K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.7% …Expected – …Previous 3.7%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.5 …Expected – …Previous 0.4

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.1% …Expected – …Previous 0.4%

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 13.5K …Previous 24.9K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 JP PMI
Expn – …Expected 47.7 …Previous 48.3 …Actual 47.9

13:15 18:45 US ADP Emp
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 103.0K