Most currency pairs fluctuated on Friday pre and post the US data releases for hourly Wage earnings and NFP. The Dollar Index could trade within 102-103 now while Euro could move towards 1.10 while above 1.0870. EURJPY faced rejection from 159 and could dip back towards 157 while USDJPY could come off towards 144while below 146. USDCNY will have to sustain and rise past 7.16 to move higher towards 7.20/22. Aussie could trade above 0.66-0.6650 while Pound may continue trade between 1.26-1.28. USDRUB and EURINR look bearish. USDINR could also fall towards 83.00 before bouncing back from there.

Dollar Index (102.448) broke above 102.50 to rise to 103.10 on Friday post the NFP data release before coming off from there again. We may expect trade within 103-102 to hold for the next few sessions.

EURUSD (1.0939) has support near 1.0870 which seems to be holding well just now. While above 1.0870, we may expect immediate trade between 1.0870-1.10 for the next couple of sessions.

EURJPY (158.07) faced rejection from 159 and has dipped slightly from there. If the fall sustains, we may expect a decline towards 157 or lower again in the next few days.

Dollar-Yen (144.49) tested 146 on Friday before coming off from there. 144-146 could be an immediate trade zone for the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.1526) fell sharply from 7.1703 to 7.1390 before slightly rising from there today. The pair will have to rise again past 7.16 and sustain for it to rise to 7.20/22.

Aussie (0.6715) bounced back sharply from 0.6650 which could hold a s a decent support for the near term. The immediate trade range for Aussie is likely to be within 0.6750-0.6650. Below 0.6650, 0.66 is an important support.

Pound (1.2715) fluctuated within 1.2611-1.2770 on Friday. We may continue to see trade within 1.26-1.28 for a few more sessions.

USDRUB (90.9126) is coming down from 92.41 and could fall towards 89 in the next few sessions. View is bearish for the next few days.

USDINR (83.1550) fell to test 83.1150 on Friday. But there is support near 83.10 and lower near 83.00 which could hold and produce a bounce back towards 83.30/40 in the next few sessions. NDF quotes 83.07 just now which if followed on the OTC markets could bring USDINR lower towards 83.00.

EURINR (90.8776) is holding well below 91.50 and looks bearish for a fall towards 90.50-90.00 soon.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up. The chances are looking high for both the yields to see an extended corrective rise before their broader downtrend resumes. The 10Yr GoI is coming close to its resistance from where we expect the downtrend to resume. The 5Yr GoI is moving up within its range. The bias is negative to see a downside break of this range eventually.

The US 10Yr (4.05%) and the 30Yr (4.20%) yields have risen further. The 10Yr can test 4.1%-4.2% while above 4%. The 30Yr can rise to 4.3%-4.4% on a break above 4.2%. Thereafter a reversal is possible again.

The German 10Yr (2.15%%) and the 30Yr (2.37%) yields have risen further. An extended corrective rise to 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) looks possible before the broader downtrend resumes.

The 10Yr GoI (7.2348%) is nearing the 7.24%-7.25% resistance which can cap the upside. We expect the downtrend to resume and target 7.1% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.1138%) is moving up within its 7.04%-7.13% range. While an extended rise to 7.18%-7.2% cannot be ruled out, the broader view remains bearish to see 7%-6.95% while below 7.2%.

Dow Jones looks vulnerable to see 37000 on the downside. DAX keeps alive the danger of breaking below 16500 and falling to 16000. Nifty has scope to rise towards its resistance while above 21500. Shanghai has scope to fall towards its support and then a bounce back is possible.

Dow (37466.11, +0.07%) looks vulnerable to see 37000 on the downside. The price action thereafter will need a watch to see if a reversal is happening or the fall is going to extend. Resistance is now around 37000.

DAX (16,594.21, -0.14%) keeps alive the danger of breaking below 16500 and falling to 16000. A rise above 16700 is needed to negate this fall.

Nifty (21710.80, +0.24%) closed just above 21700. A rise to 21850-21900 first and 22000-22200 eventually looks likely while above 21500. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

Nikkei (33377.42) is closed today. Overall it is expected to trade sideways within 32500-34000 with a bullish view for a rise towards the upper end of the range.

Shanghai (2900.43, -0.98%) has declined towards 2900. It can come down further to 2870 before a possible bounce back can happen.

Crude prices can rise towards their upper end of the range. Gold and Silver were volatile last friday after the release of stronger US NFP data and looks likely to be range bound for a while. Copper has scope to fall towards its key immediate support before a bounce back can happen. Natural Gas can fall while below the resistance at 3.00.

Brent ($ 78.05) remains ranged below $ 80. We can expect a range of $ 75-81 to hold for some time with a bit bullish view.

WTI ($ 73.14) is hovering below $ 74. There is scope for a rise towards $ 76 while above $ 72-70. The broad $ 68-76 range remains intact for now.

Gold (2048.60) was volaile last friday. It can be range bound within 2020-2080 for a while.

Silver (23.31) has support at 22.80 and resistance at 23.80/24.00. A range of 22.80-24 could hold for some time.

Copper (3.8205) has declined towards 3.80 as expected. It can come down further to 3.75 before a bounce back can happen.

Natural Gas (2.8670) tested a high of 2.9630 in line with expectations for a rise towards 3.00 and has dipped from there. While below the resistance at 3.0, a dip towards 2.7-2.6 can be seen.

7:30 13:00 CH CPI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 1.5

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.5% …Expected – …Previous 0.1%

DATA FRIDAY
—————
5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 60.6 …Expected 56.5 …Previous 56.9 …Actual 59.0

13:30 19:00 US NFP
Expn 186K …Expected 168K …Previous 173K …Actual 226K

13:30 19:00 US Unemployment Rate
Expn 3.7% …Expected 3.8% …Previous 3.7% …Actual 3.7%

13:30 19:00 US Avg Hrly Earnings
Expn 0.5 …Expected – …Previous 0.4 …Actual 0.4

13:30 19:00 US Average Hourly Earnings Production & Non Supervisory Employees
Expn 0.1% …Expected – …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.4

13:30 19:00 CA Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 13.5K …Previous 24.9K …Actual 0.1K