Dollar Index is holding above 102 while Euro could rise towards 1.10 or higher while above 1.0870-1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY have declined from immediate resistances of 160 and 146 respectively. USDCNY has sipped and could now be headed towards 7.10/12. Aussie could head towards 0.6750 or higher while Pound could rise towards 1.28 or higher in the near term. USDRUB could test 89-88 before moving higher. EURINR could be headed towards 91.50. USDINR needs to rise from 82.90 to rise towards 83.20. Release of US CPI data would be crucial to watch today.

Dollar Index (102.264) has dipped towards 102 but could continue trading within 102-103 for the next few sessions. There could be equal chances of either a break below 102 or a bounce back to 103 in the coming week.

EURUSD (1.0977) is holding above support at 1.09 and headed towards 1.10 as expected. It will be crucial to watch if the Euro manages to break above 1.10 and head higher or falls back to range within 1.10-1.09 for some more time.

EURJPY (159.77) rose sharply to test 159.93 before coming off from there. If 160 holds just now, we may expect a dip towards 159-158 by mid-next week.

Dollar-Yen (145.55) also seems to have dipped from 146 which if holds can extend the fall further towards 145/144 soon.

USDCNY (7.1627) has dipped from levels near 7.18 and could soon fall to 7.12/10 if the correction continues for a few more sessions.

Aussie (0.6714) has been rising over the last 2-days and can now head towards 0.6750 or higher soon.

Pound (1.2764) has risen from support at 1.27 and could be headed higher towards 1.28+ in the near term. Immediate view is bullish above 1.27.

USDRUB (89.3407) has fallen as expected. A possible bounce back from 89 or lower levels of 88 is likely to be seen in the next few sessions.

USDINR (83.04) saw sharp selling coming in yesterday taking the pair down to 82.97 before closing just above 83.04. Note that 82.90 is an immediate support above which there could be scope for a bounce to 83.20 in the near term. Failure to bounce from 82.90 could open up 82.80/65 in the medium term.

EURINR (91.1359) has moved up again above 91 which if holds can take it towards 91.50 on the upside before pausing.

The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly. We retain our view of seeing more rise from here before the overall downtrend resumes. The US CPI data release today will be important to watch. The German yields continue to move up as expected. There is room to rise more from here before reversing lower again. The 10Yr GoI continues to move down as expected. Bearish view is intact, and the yield can fall more. The 5Yr GoI is nearing the lower end of its range. We expect the range to break on the downside and the yield to fall more.

The US 10Yr (4.02%) and the 30Yr (4.20%) yields have inched up slightly. We retain our view of seeing a rise to 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.3%-4.4% (30Yr) before the broader downtrend resumes.

The German 10Yr (2.21%) and the 30Yr (2.41%) yields continue to move up and can test 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) on the upside. Thereafter a fresh fall can be seen.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1801%) remains lower and keeps intact our bearish view of seeing 7.1% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0696%) is coming down towards the lower end of the 7.05%-7.13% range. The bias is bearish to break 7.05% and see a fall to 7%-6.95% eventually.

Dow Jones is moving up within its sideways range. A break on the upside, if seen, can target key resistance at 38000-38200. DAX lacks a strong follow through rise. This keeps alive the danger of breaking below its support of 16600-16500. Nikkei continues to move up breaking above its resistance and is bullish toward 36000. Shanghai is inching lower and looks vulnerable to break below its immediate support and fall further in the near term.

Dow (37695.73, +0.45%) retains its 37250-37800 range and is moving up within it. A breakout of this range will decide whether 38000-38200 or 37000 will be seen.

DAX (16689.81, +0.01%) is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise above 16700. This keeps alive the danger of breaking below 16500 and see a fall to 16000. It is a wait and watch.

Nifty (21618.70, +0.34%) is holding above 21400 and keeps the 21400-21850 range intact. We repeat, while above 21400, a rise to 22000-22200 can be seen first before a trend reversal happens.

Nikkei (35114.50, +1.95%) has broken above the resistance at 34500. Outlook is bullish. It can now target 36000 and then a corrective fall can be seen.

Shanghai (2877.64, 0.00%) is inching lower. It looks bearish for a break below 2865 and fall towards 2850-2800 in the near term.

Crude prices remain range bound. Gold and Silver remain vulnerable to fall while below the resistance at 2060 and 23.50/23.80 respectively. Copper is heading up towards its immediate resistance. There is scope for a break above the resistance while copper stays above 3.75. Natural Gas has declined as expected and has room to fall further to 2.8-2.75. Key focus is on the release of US CPI data today.

Brent ($ 77.11) remains ranged. It can continue its sideways consolidation within $ 80-75 range for some time.

WTI ($ 71.67) is consolidating in a narrow range of $ 74-70 within the broad $ 68-76 range. Outlook remains mixed for the near term.

Gold (2033.80) is slowly coming down towards 2020. View remains bearish for a break below 2020 and fall towards 2000-1980 while below the resistance at 2060.

Silver (23.16) remains subdued. View is bearish for a break below the lower end of the 23.80-22.80 range and fall towards 22.50 or even lower towards 22.

Copper (3.7960) is heading up towards 3.80 as expected. 3.80-3.81 are the immediate resistance. As long as it holds above the support at 3.75, there is scope for a break above 3.81 and rise towards 3.85-3.88.

Natural Gas (3.0040) has declined towards 3.0 as expected and can come down further towards 2.80-2.75. Thereafter a bounce back can be seen.

0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn 6.7A$ Bln …Expected 7.5A$ Bln …Previous 7.1A$ Bln

13:30 19:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.1 …Expected 0.2 …Previous 0.1

13:30 19:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.2% …Previous0.3%

DATA YESTERDAY
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No major data released Yesterday.