Dollar Index has risen within 102-103 while Euro has fallen sharply and if breaks below 1.09, could turn further bearish. EURJPY and USDJPY have risen well and could continue to move up for the rest of the week. USDCNY has risen above 7.18 and has scope to target further upside. Aussie and Pound has fallen sharply and could move towards 0.66 and 1.2650/1.26 respectively. USDRUB has also fallen sharply and could test 86-85. EURINR could fall towards 90-89. USDINR has bounced back towards 82.90 and can see a test of 83.00-83.10 before resuming the fall.

Dollar Index (102.85) has risen slightly from 102 and is headed towards 103. The immediate range of 102-103 continues to hold for now. It would be crucial to see if the index manages to break above 103 which if seen, can be bullish towards 104. Else a fall from 103, if seen can keep the index within the 102-103 range.

EURUSD (1.0924) has immediate support at 1.09 which has to necessarily hold for Euro to rise back towards 1.10 else a fall below 1.09, if seen and sustains can take it down towards 1.0850 or lower in the next sessions.

EURJPY (159.65) has risen well from 158.58 to re-test 160. It needs to sustain above 160 to move higher towards 161 else can fall back to 159/158 within an immediate range of 160-158.

Dollar-Yen (146.10) has moved up sharply. A rise to 147/148 looks possible before a pause is seen.

USDCNY (7.1811) has risen above 7.18. There is scope for a rise towards 7.20 or even 7.25 in the near term.

Aussie (0.6629) has fallen sharply below 0.6650. A dip towards 0.66 looks likely before bouncing back in the medium term towards 0.6650-0.67.

Pound (1.2687) has broken below the support at 1.27. A fall towards 1.2650-1.26 can be seen from here.

USDRUB (87.7214) has fallen sharply, breaking below our expected support at 88. A fall to 86-85 looks likely in the near term.

USDINR (82.8850) tested a low of 82.77 before bouncing back towards 82.90. If the bounce sustain, it can see a test of immediate resistance at 83.00-83.10 before resuming the fall towards 82.65/50.

EURINR (90.6077) has fallen sharply and looks bearish towards 90 from where a rise can be possible.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. Need to see if they sustain higher and get a strong follow-through rise to negate the chances of falling back again. The German yields have bounced back and are keeping intact our bullish view. There is room to rise more from here before a reversal happens. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined below their intermediate supports. That keeps our bearish view intact. More fall can be seen in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4%) and the 30Yr (4.23%) yields have bounced. A follow-through rise is needed to move up towards 4.1%-4.2% (10Yr) and 4.3%-4.4% (30Yr). Else a break below 3.9% (10Yr) and 4.1% (30Yr) and a fall to 3.8% (10Yr), 4% (30Yr) will still be possible.

The German 10Yr (2.23%) and the 30Yr (2.43%) yields have risen back again. The bullish view is intact to see 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) on the upside. After that a reversal can be seen.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1459%) has declined below 7.16%. The expected fall to 7.1% can happen now.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0336%) has broken below 7.05% and can now fall to 7%-6.95%. Thereafter the yield can rise back again.

DAX remains mixed and range-bound between 16500 and 17000. Nifty has risen, breaking above its key resistance and can now head towards its next resistance at 22400-22500. Nikkei can fall while it remains below 36000. Shanghai is stuck within 2865-2905 but has scope to see a break on the upside to target its resistance.

Dow (37592.98) was closed yesterday.

DAX (16622.22, -0.49%) continues to oscillate between 16500 and 17000. Immediate outlook is not clear, and we will have to wait for the range breakout.

Nifty (22097.45, +0.93%) has risen above 22000 and can see an extended rise to 22400-22500. The expected correction is not happening. If a reversal doesn’t happen from 22500 also, then the next level to watch would be 23000-23200.

Nikkei (35780, -0.34%) is hovering below its crucial resistance at 36000. While it stays below 36000, a dip towards 34500-34000 looks possible.

Shanghai (2892.06, +0.20%) remains stuck within 2865-2905 range. As long as it holds above 2865, there is scope for a rise towards 2940-2950 before a fall back can be seen.

Crude prices remains range bound. View is to see an eventual break on the upside of the range. Gold and Silver can fall if the resistance at 2060 and 23.50/23.80 holds. Copper looks vulnerable to fall further in the near term. Natural Gas can range bound within 3.40-2.90 for a while.

Brent ($ 77.99) remains mixed. It can trade sideways within $ 82-76/75 for some time before moving up towards $ 85.

WTI ($ 72.36) remains ranged within $ 76-70. We expect to see an eventual break above $ 76 and rise towards $ 78-80.

Gold (2054) has to surpass 2060 to see a rally towards 2080-2100. Else it will remain vulnerable to a fall towards 2020 or lower.

Silver (23.29) can fall towards 22-21.80 while below the resistance at 23.50-23.80.

Copper (3.7710) can come down towards 3.70 or even lower to 3.60 before a bounce back can happen.

Natural Gas (3.0720) is likely to remain ranged within 3.40-2.90 for some time.

7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 4.2%

13:30 19:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.1%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 0.26% …Actual 0.73%

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -0.7% …Actual -0.3%

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 10.9 …Actual 14.8

13:00 18:30 IN Trade bal
Expn – …Expected -21.00 …Previous -20.58 …Actual -19.80