The Dollar Index may hold within 103-104 region for the near term before eventually falling lower by the end of the month. Euro can hold above 1.08/1.0850 and eventually rise towards 1.0950. EURJPY could sustain above 161 but can face rejection from 162-162.50 while USDJPY could be capped at 148/150 on the upside before falling in the medium term. USDCNY could be stable just now and could be slowly headed towards 7.20/22. Aussie could bounce from support at 0.65 and rise towards 0.66 or higher while Pound has risen from 1.26 as expected and could rise to 1.2750-1.28. USDRUB could trade within 90-88/86 region for the medium term. An immediate rise above 90 if seen could take it higher to 92. EURINR has fallen and could test 90/89 before again moving up in the medium term. USDINR could hold below resistance near 83.20 and fall to 83.05 keeping a range of 83.20-83.05 for the near term.

Dollar Index (103.33) could trade within 103-104 for the very near term. Thereafter, if 104 holds as decent resistance, we may expect a fall towards 102.50 or lower by end of the month.

EURUSD (1.0889) is holding above support at 1.0850. We may allow for a possible decline to 1.08 from where a bounce back to 1.0950 could be possible soon.

EURJPY (161.43) seems to be holding above 161 for now. We may expect a maximum rise to 162-162.5 within the current movement from where a dip can be possible.

Dollar-Yen (148.25) looks bullish for a rise to 149/150 followed by a dip towards 147/146 in the coming weeks.

USDCNY (7.1951) could remain stable now and could move up slowly towards 7.20/22 over the next 1-2 weeks.

Aussie (0.6583) has bounced well from 0.6525 and looks likely to rise towards 0.66 or higher soon. Any dip from current levels can drag it to lower support at 0.65 before the expected break above 0.66 is seen. Overall while above 0.65, immediate view is bullish.

Pound (1.2713) is rising as expected and could move up towards the upper end of the 1.26-1.28 range in the next few sessions. Immediate view is bullish above 1.26/1.27.

USDRUB (89.38) has risen over the last 3-sessions but seems to have dipped below 90 again. A break above 90 is needed for the pair to rise towards 92 else can face decline towards 88-86 again in the medium term.

USDINR (83.1275) tested 83.18 before slightly dipping back from there. It could trade within 83.20-83.05 for a while now. Only a strong break above 83.20, if seen, can lead to a rise towards 83.25/30. Watch price action within the mentioned range for the next few sessions.

EURINR (90.5029) is falling towards our expected support region of 90-89.60 mentioned yesterday. A bounce from 90-89.60 can be possible before resuming its fall again towards 89.

The US Treasury yields have risen further and are coming closer to our expected level. Similarly, the German yields have also reached our desired levels. The price action in both the US Treasury and the German yields in the coming days will need a close watch to see if the current upmove is getting extended or a reversal happens. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are on a corrective rise. There is room to rise further in the near-term before their downtrend resumes.

The US 10Yr (4.16%) and the 30Yr (4.38%) yields continue to move up and are coming closer to 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr). Failure to breach these levels might trigger a dip to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr). The price action will need a watch.

The German 10Yr (2.35%) and the 30Yr (2.51%) yields have touched 2.35% and the 2.5%-2.5% respectively. We will have to wait and watch cautiously to see if a reversal is happening or not in the coming sessions.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1774%) continues to move up. A test of 7.2% looks likely before the downtrend resumes targeting 7.1% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0613%) has risen just above 7.06%. It looks like an extended rise to 7.08%-7.1% before the fall resumes. Outlook is bearish to see 7%-6.95% while below 7.1%.

Dow Jones has risen back but needs a strong follow through rise above 37500 to reduce the danger of breaking below 37000 and to rise towards 37800 and higher again. DAX is bouncing back but the resistance at 16600-16700 region will have to be broken to turn the outlook bullish again. Else a expected fall cannot be negated. Nifty has risen back but could face resistance at 21600-21700, while below which, view is bearish to see a fall in the near term. Nikkei has risen back contrary to our bearish view but needs a clear break above 36000 to see a further rally. Else could trade sideways for a while. Shanghai has bounced back as the support at 2750 has held well as expected.

Dow (37468.61, +0.54%) is getting support around 37100. A strong follow-through rise above 37500 will reduce the danger of breaking below 37000 and will take the index upto 37800 and higher again.

DAX (16567.35, +0.83%) is bouncing back. But resistance in the 16600-16700 region will have to be broken to turn the outlook bullish again. Else a fall to 16000-15800 cannot be avoided.

Nifty (21462.25, -0.51%) has risen back well from the low of 21285. Resistance is at 21600-21700 while below which a fall to 21000 and lower cannot be negated.

Nikkei (36036.50, +1.611%) has risen back to 36000 again from a low of 35371 contrary to our view for a fall towards 35000-34500. Only a decisive break above 36000 can see a rally towards 37000. Else we can expect a sideways trade within 35000-36300 for some time.

Shanghai (2839.05, -0.26%) has bounce back sharply above 2800 as the support mentioned at 2750 has held well. It has scope to rise towards 2900-2930 in the near term.

Brent and WTI can rise towards their upper end of the range. Outlook is bullish to see an eventual break on the upside of the range for both the crude prices. Gold, Silver and Copper have bounced back but could face resistance ahead which is expected to cap the upside and keep our bearish view intact. Natural gas has fallen sharply as the resistance mentioned at 3.0 has held well. A test of its immediate support at 2.60 looks likely before a bounce back can happen.

Brent ($ 78.86) has risen towards $ 79. It may rise further towards $ 80-81. The $ 75/76-82 range remains intact. Broader outlook remains bullish for an eventual break above $ 82 and rise towards $ 85.

WTI ($ 73.84) has risen towards $ 74. It can rise further towards $ 75-76, the upper end of the $ 68/70-76 range. View remains the same to see an eventual break above $ 76 and rise towards $ 78-80.

Gold (2024.50) has bounced back above 2020. But could face resistance at 2050. While 2050 holds, view will remain bearish for a break below 2000 and fall towards 1970-1960.

Silver (22.85) has risen back above 22.80 but is likely to face rejections from 23.30-23.50. While below 23.50, outlook remains bearish for a fall towards 22-21.80 and then we can expect a bounce back towards 22.50.

Copper (3.7560) has bounced back above 3.75. However, it has break above 3.78-3.80 to ease the downside pressure and to rise towards 3.83-3.85. Else view is to see a fall to 3.70-3.65.

Natural Gas (2.70) has fallen sharply to 2.70 as the resistance at 3.0 has held well as expected. A test of 2.60 can be seen. Then it may bounce back towards 2.90-3.0. Only a strong break below 2.60 can drag it down to 2.30-2.25.

23:30 05:00 JP CPI
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 2.9

10:00 15:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -0.1%

15:00 20:30 US Existing Home Sales
Expn 3543K …Expected 3830K …Previous 3820K

21:00 02:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term $ Bln)
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 3.3

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 15.4K …Previous 72.6K …Actual -65.1K

13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
Expn – …Expected -6.6 …Previous -10.5 …Actual -10.6

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1437K …Expected 1430K …Previous 1525K …Actual 1460K