Most currency pairs remain ranged within the narrow trade region seen over the last few days. Respective supports/resistances are likely to hold and keep the pairs within the near term ranges for some more time. The Dollar Index and Euro trade within 103-104 and 1.0850-1.09/1.0950 respectively. EURJPY could move up while above 161 whereas USDJPY is bearish while below 149. USDCNY faces rejection at 7.20 and could now head towards 7.15. Aussie and Pound seem to be slowly moving up towards 0.6650 and 1.28. EURINR can test 90-89.60 before bouncing from there towards 90/91 in the medium term. USDINR can hold below 83.20 and fall to 83.00-82.90 before again attempting to rise back towards 83.25 or higher.

Dollar Index (103.269) continues to trade within 103-103.70 region and could see an eventual rise towards 104 or slightly higher while it sustains above 103.

EURUSD (1.0892) could attempt to move higher within the 1.0850-1.09/1.0950 region. If initial resistance at 1.09 fails to hold, we may expect a further rise to 1.0950 on the upside soon.

EURJPY (161.33) looks stable above immediate support at 161. A bounce from here could take it towards 162-163 before a potential fall towards 160 or lower is seen in the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (148.12) is falling as expected. Below 149, a fall to 147/146 can be seen but also note interim support is seen near 148 which needs to break lower to allow for the expected fall else a near term trade range of 148-149 can be seen for a while.

USDCNY (7.1782) fell sharply, unable to break above 7.20. A decline back to 7.15 looks possible in the next few sessions.

Aussie (0.6595) has moved up well today. Above 0.6550, view could be bullish for the near term towards 0.6650 from where a corrective dip can be seen over the next 1-week.

Pound (1.2726) has been slowly inching up towards the upper end of its 1.26-1.28 range, picking up upside momentum. Immediate view is bullish above 1.27.

USDINR (83.0650) could hold below 83.20 and dip to 83.00-82.90 in the near term before again rising back towards 83.25/30 by early Feb’24.

EURINR (90.5211) has important near term support near 90-89.60 from where a bounce is needed for the pair to rise towards 91 in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have dipped. There is not much room on the upside from here. The chances are high for the yields to resume its overall downtrend either from here itself or after a slight rise from here. The US PCE release on Friday is an important data to watch this week. The German yields have turned down from their key resistances as expected. This keeps the broader down trend intact and the yields can fall more from here. The ECB meeting on Thursday will need a close watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have key resistances ahead which can cap the upside. The broader view is bearish, and the yields are likely to turn down and resume the downtrend.

The US 10Yr (4.10%) and the 30Yr (4.31%) yields have come down. 4.2%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.45%-4.5% (30Yr) are strong resistances which can cap the upside. While they hold, the broader trend will remain down, and the yields are likely to fall below 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) again.

The German 10Yr (2.29%) and the 30Yr (2.45%) yields are coming down as expected after testing their resistances at 2.35% and the 2.5%-2.6% region respectively. While this sustains, the broader downtrend can resume, and the yields can fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2%-2.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.1790%) has resistance at 7.2%. While below that the outlook is bearish to see a fall to 7.1%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0642%) has resistance in the 7.08%-7.1% which can cap the upside. While below 7.1%, the 5Yr can fall to 7%-6.95%. Thereafter it can rise back.

Dow Jones continues to rise and has scope to see a test of its key immediate resistance at 38300. A further break above it is needed to target its next key long term resistance. DAX is bearish while it remains below 16700. Nifty needs to break above 21700 to move up towards 22000-22500. Nikkei has risen sharply above its crucial resistance at 36000 and now heading up towards its next resistance at 37000-37200 which is expected to cap the upside. Shanghai has declined sharply, breaking below its key support at 2770-2750 and looks vulnerable to fall further in the near term.

Dow (38001.81, +0.36%) can test 38300 now and can extend the rise to 39200 on a break above it. But as this rise happens, we will turn cautious for a strong correction from around 39200.

DAX (16683.36, +0.77%) is struggling to breach 16700. While below 16700 the danger is still alive to see a fall to 16000-15800. We will have to wait and see.

Nifty (21571.80, -0.23%) is struggling to breach 21700. This keeps intact our view of seeing a fall to 21000 going forward. Intermediate support is at 21250. In case a rise above 21700 happens, 22400-22500 can cap the upside.

Nikkei (36,915, +1.01%) has broken above the crucial long term resistance at 36000 and is heading up towards its next key resistance at 37000-37200. If 37000-37200 holds, a corrective dip towards 36200-36000 can be seen.

Shanghai (2749.84, -0.24%) has broken below the support near 2770-2750. While it sustains below 2770, a further fall towards 2700-2650 can be seen.

Brent and WTI are heading up towards their upper end of the range. Outlook is bullish to see an eventual break on the upside of the range but if that breaks happens now or after few days of sideways consolidation is to be seen. Gold and Copper can remain range bound for a while. Natural gas is holding well above its support at 2.3-2.25 and has scope to rise in the near term.

Brent ($ 79.95) ha moved up towards $ 80-81 as expected. It can rise further towards $ 82, the upper end of the $ 75/76-82 range. Bias is positive to see a break on the upside and rise towards $ 85. But if this break happens now or after few more sessions of trading sideways is to be seen.

WTI ($ 74.69) is heading up towards $ 76- the upper end of the $ 68/70-76 range as expected. Broader view remains bullish to see an eventual break above $ 76 and rise towards $ 78-80. But if the break on the upside will occur now or after some days of trading sideways is to be seen.

Gold (2025.30) has dipped below 2030. Key immediate resistance at 2050 and support at 2000 can hold for a few sessions.

Silver (22.33) has bounced back slightly from 22.04. Key support near 22-21.80 can hold and lead to a rise towards 22.80-22.90.

Copper (3.7785) appears ranged. It has to break above 3.80 to open doors towards 3.83-3.85. Else it can trade sideways between 3.80-3.70 for a few days.

Natural Gas (2.4280) fell sharply to test 2.3110 breaking below 2.60 and has since bounced back a bit. There is potential for a rise towards 2.60-2.65 while above the support at 2.30-2.25.

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected -0.10% …Previous -0.10%

DATA YESTERDAY
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No major data released yesterday.