Dollar Index could gain downside momentum if it sustains below 103.70 for a few more sessions while Euro could attempt to rise above 1.09 ad to sustain higher slowly. EURJPY and USDJPY have moved up and could be slightly bullish while USDCNY continues to fall, targeting 7.15/12. Aussie could be bearish towards 0.65 while below 0.66. The pound can fall within broad range of 1.28-1.26. EURINR could trade within 90-91. USDINR could attempt to rise to 83.25/30 while above support at 83.05. Thereafter, it can fall back towards 83.05 in the next 1-1.5 weeks.

Dollar Index (103.317) tested 102.77 yesterday, breaking below our mentioned support near 103-102.98. This could be indicative that if the index remains below 103.70-103.50 for the next few sessions, it could gain some downside momentum to decline towards 102.50 or lower eventually. Crucial data releases are due this week especially the US PCE and fourth quarter GDP that could impact on FED’s rate cut strategy moving ahead.

EURUSD (1.0879) strengthened to 1.0932 but came off sharply from there. Over the last 3-4 sessions, Euro has been making intra-day highs above 1.09 but closes the sessions lower. Although there is room for a fall to 1.08 on the downside, continuous attempts to break above 1.09 could take it higher soon.

EURJPY (160.65) held above support at 160 and bounced slightly from there. While above 160, the pair could move up towards 161-161.30 in the next few sessions. Broader range of 160-162 could hold for the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (147.65) has bounced from levels slightly below 147. Immediate range of 147-148 can hold for the next 2-sessions of the week. In the medium term, a decisive break below 17 is needed for the pair to turn bearish.

USDCNY (7.1574) looks bearish towards 7.15/12 in the next few sessions. Thereafter, a bounce from support near 7.12 can be possible back towards 7.15/18.

Like Euro, Aussie (0.6574) has also been making intra-day highs above 0.66 over the last 3-sessions but has been closing lower. The price trades in the middle of the broad range of 0.65-0.6650. It can attempt to rise to the upper level initially if it manages to sustain above 0.6650 in the next few sessions.

Pound (1.2710) has been fairly ranged within 1.26-1.28 and could remain so for the next few sessions. We need to see a break out on either side on the range for further directional clarity.

USDINR (83.1275) traded in a narrow range of 83.1625-83.1025 yesterday. The 83.05-83.20 range can hold for some time. While above support at 83.05, there are chances of seeing a rise to 83.25/30 before again coming down towards 83.05 in the next 1-1.5 weeks.

EURINR (90.4348) could trade within 90-91 for the next few sessions within which a fall to 90 could be seen first.

The US Treasury yields continue to move up and are coming closer to their key resistance. We expect the yields to hold and the broader downtrend to resume. The US PCE data release tomorrow is important to watch. The German yields are hovering near their resistance. The yields can fall back and resume their downtrend going forward. The ECB meeting outcome today will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has inched up slightly while the 5Yr remained stable. Resistances can cap the upside and the view remains bearish to see more fall from here.

The US 10Yr (4.17%) and the 30Yr (4.40%) yields are coming up towards their key 4.2%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.45%-4.5% (30Yr) resistance zone. We expect the yields to turn down thereafter and resume their downtrend and can fall below 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) once again.

The German 10Yr (2.34%) and the 30Yr (2.52%) yields remain stable at their 2.35% (10Yr) and the 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) resistances. We expect these resistances to hold and keep the broader downtrend intact. The yields can fall back towards 2% (10Yr) and 2.2%-2.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.1835%) has inched up slightly while the 5Yr GOI (7.0614%) yield remains stable. The broader bearish view is intact. The 10Yr can fall to 7.1% while below 7.2%. The 5Yr can fall to 7%-6.95% while it remains below the 7.08%-7.1% resistance zone.

Dow Jones is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise above 38000 which keeps the chances alive for a fall towards its immediate support. DAX has risen well but have long term resistance ahead at 17000-17100 which might cap the uspide. Nifty indeed saw a corrective bounce yesterday but the resistance at 21500-21600 is expected to cap the upside and keep our bearish view intact. Nikkei continues to dip and has room to come down further in the near term while below the resistance at 37000. Shanghai has surged above the interim resistance at 2830-2850 and can now target its next crucial resistance which can halt the current rally.

Dow (37806.39, -0.26%) is struggling to get a strong follow-through rise above 38000. This keeps alive the chances of a fall to 37500 rather than rising to 38300 that we have been expecting. Wait and watch.

DAX (16889.92, +1.58%) has risen above 16700 but has key long term resistance at 17000-17100. A break above 17100, if seen, can lead to a rise to 17200-17500 before a fall can happen. The fall to 16000-15800 that we have been cautioning is not happening now.

Nifty (21453.95, +1.01%) has risen back well. But 21500-21600 resistance can cap the upside and keep the bearish view intact to see 21000-20900 and even lower levels going forward.

Nikkei (36133.5, -0.26%) continues to dip as the resistance at 37000 is holding well. View is bearish for a fall towards 35800-35500.

Shanghai (2861.82, +1.46%) has risen sharply, breaking above the resistance at 2830-2850 contrary to our view for a fall towards 2700-2650. It can now see a test of key resistance of 2915-2950 before resuming the fall.

Crude prices are gradually moving up and have scope to see a break on the upside of the range. Gold can test the lower end of its sideways range. Silver might break its resistance at 23 while it remains above 22. Natural Gas indeed tested the mentioned resistance and opened gap down today. It now looks vulnerable to come down towards its key support. Copper saw a solid rise yesterday and has room to move up further in the near term.

Brent ($ 80.11) is slowly moving up towards $ 81. Interim support is at $ 77-77.50, while above which, there are chances of $ 82. Bias is positive for a break above the upper end of $ 82-75 range and rise towards $ 85.

WTI ($ 75.31) has moved up towards $ 76. Immediate support is at $ 74 and then lower at $ 71. While above these supports, view is bullish for a break above the $ 76-70/68 range and rise towards $ 78-80.

Gold (2016.50) has dipped below 2020. The 2050/2040-2000 range remains intact. It can come down to test 2000. A break below 2000 is needed to assert bearishness towards 1950.

Silver (22.86) tested 23.09 in line with the expectation for a test of 23 and has come down a bit. While above 22, there is scope for a break above 23 and rise towards 23.50.

Copper (3.8705) has surged towards 3.90 well above our expected level of 3.85. It can rise further towards 3.95 in the near term.

As expected, Natural Gas (2.2760) tested the resistance at 2.70 yesterday and today it opened gap down at 2.2880. It can now come down to test 2.15-2.1-2.0. After that, a bounce back can happen towards 2.3-2.5.

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 85.2 …Expected 86.7 …Previous 86.4

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations Index
Expn 87.5 …Expected 88.6 …Previous 88.5

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations Index
Expn 83.5 …Expected 84.9 …Previous 84.3

13:15 18:45 ECB Mtg
Expn – …Expected 4.50% …Previous 4.50%

13:30 19:00 US Durable Goods Orders
Expn 1.5% …Expected 1.0% …Previous 5.4%

13:30 19:00 US GDP
Expn – …Expected 2.0% …Previous 4.8%

15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 616K …Expected 646K …Previous 590K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
14:45 20:15 BOC Meeting
Expn – …Expected 5.0% …Previous 5.0%