Dollar Index needs to sustain past 103.5 to further test 104 on the upside while Euro could test 1.08 before attempting to rise back towards 1.09. EURJPY and USDJPY have moved up and could be slightly bullish towards 161.30 and 149 while USDCNY has risen sharply contrary to our expectations of seeing a fall towards 7.12 and is now headed towards 7.20 on the upside. Aussie can remain ranged within 0.65-0.6650 in the coming sessions. The pound continues to trade within the broad range of 1.28-1.26. EURINR had dipped slightly below our mentioned target of 90 but is now back within the range of 90-91. USDINR may trade within the narrow range of 83.05-83.20 and broader range of 83.25-82.90 for sometime.

Dollar Index (103.513) seems to be sustaining well above 103 even after attempting to fall lower in the last week. The index could test 104 in the next few sessions followed by a dip towards 103.

EURUSD (1.0843) failed its attempt to rise towards 1.09 on Friday and is coming down again towards 1.08. we might expect the 1.08-1.09 region to hold for the near term.

EURJPY (160.65) looks stable above 160 for now. It could move up to test immediate resistance near 161-161.30 in the next few sessions followed by a dip to 160 or lower in the medium term. Near term range of 160-161.30 could hold for the medium term.

Dollar-Yen (148.12) tested an intra-day low of 146.65 on 24th Jan’24 followed by a slow rise to current levels of 148.12, rising above our expected range of 147-148. But a further break past 149 is needed to make the outlook bullish to 150-151, else chances of it falling towards 147 or lower can again come into the picture soon.

USDCNY (7.1815) has risen sharply contrary to our bearish view of seeing a fall towards the support of 7.12 and now it has a fair chance of further rising towards 7.20 on the upside. Thereafter, price action around those levels would be important to watch as to whether it breaks past it or not as that could then pave way for higher levels of 7.24.

Aussie (0.6585) continues to trade within the middle of the broad range of 0.65-0.6650. It can attempt to initially rise to the upper end of its range in the near term, if it manages to sustain above the current levels.

Pound (1.2698) has been stuck within the 1.26-1.28 region for quite some time and a breakout on either side of the range will be needed for further directional clarity. Till then the range might hold well.

USDINR (83.12) has immediate support near 83.05/08 and interim resistance near 83.18/20 which has been holding the trade for the last 3-4 sessions. Narrow range of 83.05-83.20 and broad range of 82.90-83.25 could hold for this week.

EURINR (90.1539) tested 89.88 on the downside, slightly below our mentioned range of 91-90 but is now back within the range which can hold for the next few sessions. Note that 89.50 and 90 are important support levels for the near term.

The US Treasury yields are not gaining momentum to rise past their resistances. This keeps intact our view of the yields turning down to see a fresh fall. There are chances to see a stable yield until the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. We will have to wait and watch. The German yields are coming down as expected after testing their resistances. More fall can be seen going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are also likely to fall in the coming days while they remain below their resistances.

The US 10Yr (4.13%) and the 30Yr (4.36%) yields are struggling to gain momentum and rise past the 4.2%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.45%-4.5% (30Yr) resistance zone. This keeps intact our view of the yields turning down and resuming their downtrend falling below 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) once again. We will have to wait and watch.

The German 10Yr (2.30%) and the 30Yr (2.51%) yields are turning down from their 2.35% (10Yr) and the 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) resistances. While below these resistances, a fresh fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2%-2.1% (30Yr) is possible.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1760%) is stuck in between 7.16% and 7.20%. View is bearish while below 7.2% to see a fall to 7.1%.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0503%) is coming down gradually. It can fall to 7%-6.95% while below 7.08%-7.1%.

Dow Jones has risen back above 38000 and can head towards its next immediate resistance. DAX is looking bullish to break above the key resistance at 17000 and move up further in the coming days. Nifty has fallen back as the mentioned resistance has held well and has room to come down further from here. Nikkei has recovered after 4 consecutive days of falling but broader outlook will remain bearish while below the resistance at 37000. Shanghai has scope to fall while it holds below the key resistance at 2940-2950.

Dow (38109.43, +0.16%) has risen above 38000. While this sustains a rise to 38400 can be seen first rather than a fall to 37500 that was mentioned earlier.

DAX (16916.39, +0.32%) is looking bullish to break 17000 and rise to 17200-17500 in the coming days. Support will be in the 16600-16500 region.

Nifty (21352.60, -0.47%) is likely to test 21000-20800 while it remains below the 21500-21600 resistance region.

Nikkei (36067.50, +0.89%) fell to 35687.58 Last friday in line with expectation for a fall towards 35500 and has bounced back from there. However, outlook is bearish for a further fall towards 35000 while it remains below the resistance at 37000.

Shanghai (2903.93, -0.22%) lacks strength to rise above 2925. Key resistance is at 2940-2950, while below which, there is scope for a fall towards 2850-2830 in the near term.

Crude prices have entered their crucial resistance zone which may hold and produce a fall back in the near term. Gold remains stuck in a narrow range. Silver has scope to break above 23 and target further upside while it remains above 22. Natural Gas can bounce back from its key support at 2.1-2.0. Copper has dipped but downside could be limited to 3.80.

Brent ($ 83.30) has broken above the upper end of the $ 82-75 range as expected and has moved up towards $ 84. Key immediate resistance is seen at $ 85-85.50. While the resistance holds, a fall back towards $ 80 can be seen. Only a decisive break above $ 85 can see an extended rise to $ 87-87.50.

As expected, WTI ($ 78.41) broke above the upper end of the $ 76-70/68 range and has moved up towards $ 80. Key immediate resistance is at $ 80-81 region. While that holds, a fall back towards $ 75-74 can be seen. Only a strong break above $ 80-81 could see a rise towards $ 85.

Gold (2022.40) tested 2004 on last Thursday in line with our expectations for a test of 2000 and has bounced back above 2015. The 2000-2040/2050 range remains intact. While it remains below 2040-2050, the outlook is bearish for a break below 2000 and fall towards 1960-1950.

Silver (23.00) lacks follow through rise above 23. As long as it holds above 22, bias is positive for a break above 23 and rises toward 23.50-24.00. Interim support is seen at 22.80.

Copper (3.8535) has dipped, failing to rise further above 3.90 but has support at 3.80. While 3.80 holds, chances are there for a break above 3.90 and rise towards 3.95.

As expected, Natural Gas (2.1450) tested 2.0930 on Friday and has bounced back slightly. 2.1-2.0 are key supports. While these hold, a rise towards 2.5 is possible.

No major data release today.

DATA FRIDAY
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23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -31 …Expected -21 …Previous -22 …Actual -19

13:30 19:00 US Personal Income
Expn 0.2% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.4% …Actual 0.3%

13:30 19:00 US PCE Price Index M/M
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.2% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.2%