Dollar Index could continue trade within 103-104 while Euro looks like it can attempt to break below 1.08 to test 1.0750 in the medium term. EURJPY and USDJPY have fallen sharply, contrary to our bullish view. They may now turn bearish to 159/158 and 147-145 respectively in the near term. while USDCNY started to decline on testing 7.1828 itself contrary to seeing a rise towards 7.20 and could now test support at 7.16 from where a bounce back to 7.20 can be expected. Aussie continues to rise within 0.65-0.6650 region. The pound has also risen within the broad range of 1.28-1.26 and needs a breakout on either side for further directional clarity. EURINR had dipped slightly below the lower end of our mentioned range of 90-91 and could test 89.50-89 or even 88 on the downside on a sustained break below 90 in the next few sessions. USDINR may trade within the narrow range of 83.05-83.20 and broader range of 83.25-82.95 for some time.

Dollar Index (103.46) tested 103.82 before coming off from there. Immediate range of 104-103 holds well for now.

EURUSD (1.0832) fell to 1.0796 before bouncing back from there to current levels. Going ahead, it needs to sustain above 1.08 and rise further to negate a further fall towards 1.075 in the coming sessions. While the overall range of 1.08-1.09 is expected to hold in the near term, few more attempt to break below 1.08, if seen could pave way for bearishness towards 1.0750-1.07 in the coming weeks. Watch price action near 1.08.

EURJPY (159.67) broke below our expected level of 160. It would be vulnerable to test 159-158 if the current decline sustains. Note that 161 may now act as an immediate resistance.

Dollar-Yen (147.43) failed to sustain its rise past 148 and is declining towards 147. A break below 147 may look likely and that could lead to a further decline towards 146/145 in the coming weeks. The immediate view is bearish below 148.

USDCNY (7.1771) has dipped from 7.1798 but the dip could be short lived and limited to 7.16 (immediate support) before resumption of rise towards 7.20.

Aussie (0.6614) continues to rise within the 0.65-0.6650 region.

Pound (1.2712) has risen above 1.27 but continues to trade within the broad 1.26-1.28 zone. Breakout on either side is needed for further directional clarity.

USDINR (83.1375) may continue to trade within a narrow range of 83.05-83.20 and broad range of 82.95-83.25 for this week.

EURINR (90.0808) looks like it is on the verge of breaking below 90 to sustain lower in the coming sessions. Yesterday the pair tested 89.7538 but has moved back above 90 now. View is bearish to see a test of 89/88 in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have come down. The resistances are holding well, and it keeps intact our view of the yields falling more. The US Fed meeting outcome tomorrow is an important event to watch. The German yields have seen the reversal as expected. The downtrend has resumed, and the yields can decline further from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are stuck in a narrow range. View remains bearish and the yields are likely to fall.

The US 10Yr (4.07%) and the 30Yr (4.31%) yields have come down. We retain our view of the yields falling below 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr) in the coming days while they remain below the 4.2%-4.25% (10Yr) and 4.45%-4.5% (30Yr) resistance zone.

The German 10Yr (2.23%) and the 30Yr (2.47%) yields have declined sharply. The reversal has happened as expected from around the 2.35% (10Yr) and the 2.5%-2.6% (30Yr) resistances. The yields can now fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2%-2.1% (30Yr) in the coming days.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1735%) and the 5Yr GOI (7.0517%) yields remain stable. The 10Yr is stuck between 7.16% and 7.20%. View remains bearish to see 7.1% on the downside while below 7.2% on the 10Yr and 7%-6.95% while below 7.08%-7.1% on the 5Yr.

Dow Jones is heading up towards its immediate resistance. Need to see if that holds or Dow breaks higher to target its next key resistance. DAX remains bullish to see a break above the key resistance at 17000 and move up further in the coming sessions. Nifty has risen sharply above 21600 resistance and while this break sustain, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Nikkei could trade sideways within 35500-37000 for a while. Shanghai has resistance at 2900-2950, while below which, outlook is bearish.

Dow (38333.45, +0.59%) is heading up towards 38400 as expected. A strong rise past 38500 will be bullish to see 39000 on the upside. Else a fall back to 38000-37500 is possible. We will have to wait and watch.

DAX (16941.71, -0.12%) remains stable. While above 16500, the outlook is bullish to see 17200-17500 on the upside.

Nifty (21737.60, +1.80%) has risen well above 21600 – the resistance that we expected to hold. While this sustains, 22000 and even higher levels can be seen. So, the fall to 21000-20800 might get delayed.

Nikkei (36140, +0.31%) has risen further above 36000. We can expect a range of 35500-37000 to hold for some time before coming down towards 35000.

Shanghai (2862.79, -0.71%) has come down towards 2850 as expected. View is bearish for a fall towards 2840-2800 while below the resistance at 2900-2950.

Crude prices have declined as the cited resistance have held well and look vulnerable to come down further in the near term. Gold has broken its sideways range on the upside while Silver has broken sharply above the resistance at 23. Both the precious metal looks bullish for the near term. Natural Gas continues to dip but has key immediate support at 2.0 which may hold and produce a bounce back. Copper has bounced back well and looks bullish to break above 3.90 to target its next key resistance.

Brent ($ 82.11) has come down towards $ 81 in line with our view for a fall towards $ 80. It can come down further towards $ 79-78 while below the key resistance at $ 85-85.50.

WTI ($ 77.06) has declined sharply below $ 80. View is bearish for a fall towards $ 74 or even $ 72 while below the resistance at $ 80-81.

Gold (2048.60) has broken above the upper end of the 2000-2040 range. While this break sustains, a rise towards 2080 or even 2100 is possible.

Silver (23.27) has risen sharply above 23 as expected. A further rise toward 24 can be seen or even 25 in the coming days.

Copper (3.8735) has bounced back towards 3.90 from a low of 3.8275. This keeps alive the chances for a break above 3.90 and rise toward the key resistance at 3.95.

Natural Gas (2.0690) has dipped further below 2.10. Key immediate support is at 2.0. While that hold, a bounce back towards 2.3-2.5 is possible. Only a decisive break below 2.0 can drag it further down to 1.5.

23:30 05:00 JP Unemp
Expn – …Expected 2.5% …Previous 2.5%

9:00 14:30 EU Biz Climate
Expn – …Expected 96.2 …Previous 96.4

14:00 19:30 US Case Schiller
Expn 5.2% …Expected 5.8% …Previous 4.9%

15:00 20:30 US Cons Conf
Expn 112.0 …Expected 113.9 …Previous 110.7

DATA YESTERDAY
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No major data released yesterday.