The Dollar Index is nearing its crucial resistance of 105 which corresponds to support near 1.07 on the Euro. Both are likely to hold the mentioned levels. While EURJPY is now bearish to 158, USDJPY needs to break past 149 to test 150 on the upside, else a fall towards 146 seems likely. USDCNY is near our mentioned target of 7.20 and thereafter a further break past it will be needed to test 7.22/24. Aussie is bearish towards 0.64 or even 0.635. Pound can hold above support 1.25. EURINR is slowly inching down towards our mentioned targets of 89-88. USDINR can test 83.20 on a break above 83.10. Downside could be limited to 82.80/75 in the near term.

Dollar Index (104.398) has broken above its 102.50-104 range that we were looking at for quite some time and is now headed towards the upper resistance at 105 as mentioned yesterday which would necessarily need to hold for the index to fall back towards 103 or lower in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.0745) has been declining in accordance with our bearish view mentioned over the past few editions and could now test its support near 1.07 soon from where a bounce back towards 1.08-1.0850 looks possible in the medium term.

EURJPY (159.64) dipped from 160.27 itself, contrary to our expectation of seeing an extended rise to 160.65/80. While below 160, view is again bearish towards 158. An immediate range of 161-158 can hold for the near term.

Dollar-Yen (148.54) could not succeed in its attempt to rise past 149 but has sustained well above 148. As mentioned previously, a rise past 149 will be needed to take the pair to 150. Failure to do so can bring it back towards 146 in the medium term from the current level itself.

USDCNY (7.1972) has been gradually rising towards 7.20 as expected. Thereafter a decisive break past it will be needed to move up further towards 7.22/24. Immediate support is visible near 7.16/17.

Aussie (0.6494) looks bearish towards 0.64 or even to 0.6350 in the near term before a bounce back towards 0.66 can be expected again in the medium term.

Pound (1.2546) has finally broken below the 1.26-1.28 range. Still, a further break below 1.25 is needed to make the outlook bearish to 1.24/22 in the medium term. Else there is a high chance of the support at 1.25 to hold and bounce back again towards 1.28 on the upside. Watch price action near 1.25.

USDINR (83.06) is rising towards the interim resistance of 83.10 which if breaks on the upside could pave way for higher resistance at 83.20 from where chances of a decline could be seen in the medium term. Today, there is a decent chance of seeing a higher opening here as on the OTC market.

EURINR (89.2469) has been slowly inching down and could soon test our mentioned targets of 89-88 before medium term rise towards 90 or higher is seen by mid-Feb’24.

The US Treasury and the German yields have risen further sharply. However, resistances are ahead which are likely to halt the rise and trigger a reversal to keep the broader downtrend intact. Only a strong break above those resistances will turn the outlook bullish and prove our view wrong. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are on a corrective rise. There is room to rise further before the overall downtrend resumes. The RBI meeting on Thursday will need a close watch.

The US 10Yr (4.13%) and the 30Yr (4.32%) have risen further. 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) are crucial resistances to watch. Failure to break these resistances can drag the yields again towards 4% (10Yr) and 4.2% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.31%) and the 30Yr (2.52%) yields continue to move up. But resistances at 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) can cap the upside and trigger a fresh fall. That will keep the broader downtrend intact to see a fall to 2% (10Yr) and 2.2%-2.1% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0937%) is on a corrective rise. A sustained break above 7.1%-7.12% can see an extended rise to 7.2%. Thereafter the downtrend can resume targeting 6.9%-6.8% on the downside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0222%) on the other hand can rise to 7.1% while above 7%. The price action thereafter will need a close watch.

Dow Jones has come down but can get support at 38100 which will keep our bullish view intact for a test of key long term resistance in the near term. DAX remains stuck in a narrow range but bias is positive to see a break on the upside. Nifty has come down further below 21800 and can head towards its immediate support. Nikkei can trade sideways within 36500-35500 for a while. Shanghai has bounced back from yesterday’s low but could face rejections from 2750.

Dow (38380.12, -0.71%) has come down but can get support around 38100. While above 38100 the upside will remain open to test 39000-39300 first before a strong correction begins.

DAX (16904.06, -0.08%) continues to oscillate between 16800 and 17000. While above 16800 bias is positive to break 17000 and see a rise to 17500. Thereafter a reversal is possible.

Nifty (21771.70, -0.38%) remains below 22000 and is coming down towards 21600-21500 as expected. A break below 21500 can drag it towards the lower end of the 21000-22150 range.

Nikkei (36125, -0.63%) has dipped failing to break above 36500. This is contrary to our view to see a break above 36500 and rise towards 37000. The 36500-35500 range remains intact. The mentioned range may continue to hold for this week.

Shanghai (2727.40, +0.93%) has risen back from a low of 26635.09 but could face resistance at 2750. While 2750 holds, chances of a fall towards 2600 or maybe lower will remain intact.

Crude prices have recovered a bit. Brent needs to surpass its resistance overhead to extend the bounce further whereas WTI can see a short corrective rise while above the support at $ 72. Gold, Silver and Copper continues to dip but have key immediate supports coming up which are expected to hold and produce a bounce back in the near term. Natural Gas can continues its sideways consolidation above 2.0 for this week.

Brent ($ 78.14) has bounced back from a low of $ 76.62 but it has to surpass the immediate resistance at $ 78.50-79.00 to rise towards $ 81. Else a fall towards $ 75-73 cannot be negated.

WTI ($ 72.82) has bounced back after testing a low of $ 71.41. A short corrective bounce towards $ 76 is possible while it remains above $ 72. Thereafter it can resume the fall towards $ 70-68.

Gold (2040.90) is heading down towards 2020. If 2020 holds, a bounce back towards 2080 can be seen again. Else we have allow for a further fall to 2000.

Silver (22.43) has declined further below 22.50. Key supports are at 22.30-22.00. While 22 holds, chances of a rise towards 23.50-24.00 will remain in place.

Copper (3.78) has come down towards 3.75 in line with expectation. While 3.75 holds, a corrective bounce towards 3.80-3.85 can be seen before resuming the fall towards 3.70 or even lower towards 3.60.

Natural Gas (2.0650) remains consolidative within 2.0-2.2. However, view is positive for a break on the upside and rise towards 2.3-2.5 while above 2.0.

4:30 10:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.35% …Previous 4.35%

10:00 15:30 EU Retail Sales
Expn -0.8% …Expected -0.9% …Previous -0.3%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
0:30 06:00 Australia Trade Balance
Expn – …Expected 10.5 …Previous 11.8A$ Bln …Actual 11.0A$ Bln

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 58.4 …Expected 60.0 …Previous 59.0 …Actual 61.8