The Dollar Index tested 105 as expected and could now be bearish towards 104 in the near term. Meanwhile, Euro had dipped slightly below our expected level of 1.07 before rising back. EURJPY and USDJPY can fall while below the resistance at 162 and 151-152 respectively. Aussie has risen well on testing its support near 0.6450 but a further break past 0.65 will be needed to get the directional clarity in it. Pound could trade within a revised range of 1.25-1.27 for a while. EURINR has bounced back slightly and might see a short term rise while above 89. USDINR tested 83.1150 yesterday before coming down from there. A further break below 83, if seen, can be bearish towards 82.90/85 in the coming sessions.

Dollar Index (104.66) tested 104.98 as expected and has dipped from there. While it remains below 105, a fall towards 104 and then towards 103-102.50 is possible in the medium term.

EURUSD (1.0729) initially dipped slightly below our expected level of 1.07 to 1.0694 but has now risen back. Going further, a break past 1.0750-1.08 will be needed to make the outlook bullish in the medium term. Failure to hold above 1.07 would prove our view wrong and could be vulnerable to strong bearishness.

EURJPY (161.16) has come down towards 161 as the mentioned resistance at 162 seems to holding well. A fall towards 160 is possible while it remains below 162.

Dollar-Yen (150.18) is coming off from the level of 151. 151-152 are crucial resistance zone, while below which, a fall towards 149-148 can be seen.

USDCNY (7.1924) is closed this week. Trading will resume from next week.

Aussie (0.6488) the support near 0.6450 held quite well and risen above it. Going ahead, a break past 0.65 will be needed for the directional clarity in it. Else while below it, the pair could be vulnerable to see a sharp decline towards 0.63/62.

Pound (1.2567) a fall to 1.2536 was seen yesterday and has risen back a bit. If the support near 1.25 holds, it has a fair chance of rising back towards 1.26/27. Revised range of 1.25-1.27 can hold for the near term.

As expected, USDINR (83.0350) rose to 83.1150 before it came down sharply from there. It may or may not rise towards 83.20. Failure to hold above 83.00 can drag it down to 82.90/85 again in the coming sessions. Overall a broad range of 83.20/83.10 and 82.90/82.85 can hold for some time.

EURINR (89.0529) has bounced back slightly from a low of 88.82 and may see a short term rise towards 89.50. But while below 90, broader view remains bearish for a fall towards 88. Immediate range of 90-89/88 may hold.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down sharply. They have to see a sustained rise above their key resistances in order to move further higher. Else our view of the yields reversing lower and resuming their overall downtrend will still remain intact. It is a wait and watch situation for both the Treasury and the German yields. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down from their highs yesterday. Resistances are ahead that can cap the upside. We expect the yields to come down again in the coming days.

The US 10Yr (4.23%) and the 30Yr (4.41%) yields have come down sharply again. A fall below 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) will keep alive our view of seeing a reversal alive. The yields have to sustain above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% (30Yr) to prove that view wrong and move up to 4.45%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.65% (30Yr).

The German 10Yr (2.33%) and the 30Yr (2.5%) yields have come down again. A sustained rise above 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) is needed for the yields to go higher. Else the chances of a reversal will still remain alive. It is a wait and watch situation.

The 10Yr GoI (7.1110%) has come-off from the high of 7.1425%. The bearish view is intact to see 6.9%-6.8% on the downside. Resistance is at 7.15%-7.18% can cap the upside.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0927%) has come down from 7.1141%. A sustained rise above 7.12% will be bullish to see 7.2% and higher levels. Else a fall back to 7% cannot be avoided.

Dow Jones has bounced back as 38000 has held well but needs a sustained break above 38500 to reduce the danger of breaking below its support of 38000. DAX remains consolidative. Nikkei has bounced back towards 38000 again contrary to our bearish view and may rise further in the near term. Nifty did fall as expected but has risen back sharply above 21800 again. A further break above 21850 can take it higher towards 22150.

Dow (38424.27, +0.40%) has bounced back. Support at 38100-38000 seems to be holding well. Need to see if a sustained rise above 38500 is happening in order to reduce the danger of falling below 38000 and keep alive the chances of seeing 39000-39300 on the upside.

DAX (16945.48, +0.38%) remains stuck inside the 16800-17000 range. While above 16800 a rise to test 17500 will still be possible before a strong correction happens.

Nifty (21840.05, +0.45%) has risen back sharply from the low of 21530 yesterday. The expected break and fall below 21500 is not happening. A sustained rise above 21850 can take the Nifty up to 22150. We will have to wait and watch. A range of 21500-22150 can hold for a while.

Nikkei (37947.50, +0.65%) has bounced back towards 38000 again contrary to our view for a fall towards 37000-36500. It may rise towards 38500-39000 before a pause can be seen.

Shanghai (2865.90) is closed for this week.

Crude prices have come down from levels just below their key resistance and are bearish to come down in the near term. Gold looks vulnerable to a break below its support of 2000 and fall further in the near term. Silver have bounce back as the support at 22 is holding well for now. It could trade sideways while above 22. Natural Gas and Copper have scope come down towards their crucial support and then a bounce back is expected to happen.

Brent ($ 81.28) has fallen back from a high of $ 83.60. We had expected to see a test of $ 84-85 and then a fall to be seen. Now, a fall towards $ 80-78 can be seen while below the resistance at $ 84-85. A broad range of $ 85-75 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 76.03) tested $ 78.77 and has come down from there. We had expected to see a test of $ 80. A fall towards $ 73-72 is possible while it remains below $ 80. Overall a broad range of $ 80-70 can hold for some time.

Gold (2004.20) is hovering above the support at 2000. Resistance is at 2020. While that holds, a break below 2000 and fall towards 1950 is possible in the near term.

Silver (22.41) has bounced back from a low of 21.98. As long as it holds above 22, a sideways consolidation between 22-23.50 can be seen for some time. A decisive break below 22 is needed to confirm bearishness towards 21.50-21.

Copper (3.7020) remains lower. Can fall to 3.65-3.60 and then a bounce back can happen towards 3.80.

Natural Gas (1.6130) continues to dip. Outlook remains bearish for a test of 1.5. After that, a bounce back can happen towards 2.0-2.1.

23:50 05:20 JP GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous -0.7%

0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 20.7K …Previous -65.1K

10:00 15:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -14.9 …Expected -14.1 …Previous -14.2

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected 15.7 …Previous 14.8

13:00 18:30 IN Trade bal
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -19.80

13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 1.4% …Expected -0.2% …Previous 0.6%

13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
Expn – …Expected -8.9 …Previous -10.6

14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.1%

14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 78.6% …Expected 78.9% …Previous 78.6%

21:00 02:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 126.1

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
6:30 12:00 IN WPI
Expn 0.53% …Expected 0.53% …Previous 0.73% …Actual 0.27%

7:00 12:30 UK CPI Y/Y
Expn – …Expected 4.1% …Previous 3.9% …Actual 4.0%

10:00 15:30 EU GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.0% …Previous 0.0% …Actual 0.0%

10:00 15:30 EU Ind Prodn (MoM)
Expn -1.2% …Expected -0.2% …Previous 0.4% …Actual 2.6%