Most currencies remain within a range and continue so for the next few sessions. The Dollar Index can trade within 105-104 region while Euro could trade within 1.07-1.08/1.0850. EURJPY and USDJPY look bullish to 162 and 151 respectively from where a rejection is possible in the medium term. Aussie can trade within 0.6550-0.64 while Pound remains stuck within 1.25-1.27 region. EURINR is bearish to 89-88 in the near term while below 90/89.50. USDINR continues to trade within 83.10-82.90.

Dollar Index (104.37) is holding well below immediate resistance at 105. We may see trade within 105-104 for the next few sessions.

EURUSD (1.0763) bounced well from 1.07 this week and could trade within the range of 1.07-1.08/1.0850.

EURJPY (161.59) has been rising sharply to head towards 162 from where a rejection is possible in the near term.

Dollar-Yen (150.12) has immediate support at 149 above which the pair could be ranged within 149-151 for the next few sessions.

USDCNY (7.1924) is closed this week. Trading will resume from next week.

Aussie (0.6513) has been very volatile since the last few days. While below 0.6550, near term view is bearish.

Pound (1.2587) has scope to fall to 1.25 before bouncing back to 1.2. Overall range of 1.25-1.27 is likely to hold well for some more time.

USDINR (83.0475) holds within a narrow range of 83.10-82.90.

EURINR (89.3411) is facing immediate resistance near 89.50. The immediate range of 90-89may hold for the next few days.

The US Treasury yields are holding higher. Failure to see a turn-around from here can take the yields higher. That will prove our view of seeing a reversal wrong. The German yields are hovering around their key resistances. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to negate the chances of a reversal that we have been expecting. Both the US Treasury and the German yields will need a close watch going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down failing to break their resistances. This keeps the overall bearish view intact and a further fall from here is possible.

The US 10Yr (4.25%) and the 30Yr (4.43%) yields are sustaining above 4.2% (10Yr) and 4.4% respectively. While they sustain above these levels a rise to 4.45%-4.5% (10Yr) and 4.6%-4.65% (30Yr) is possible and the expected reversal may not happen.

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.53%) yields continue. to hover around their crucial 2.35% (10Yr) and 2.6% (30Yr) resistances. We expect these resistances to hold and trigger a reversal towards 2% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr). A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to prove our view wrong.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0883%) has come down further. The 7.15%-7.18% resistance is holding well. Our bearish view of seeing 6.9%-6.8% on the downside remains intact. A break below 7.05% can accelerate the fall.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0711%) is coming down after testing the resistance at 7.12%. A fall to 7% looks likely. 7%-7.1% or 7.12% can be the trading range for some time.

All major stock indices have risen further and could hold to the upside for a few sessions before a sharp rejection is seen soon. Dow Jones looks initially bullish for a rise towards 39000/39300. Dax has broken above 17000 and need to see if follow through rise is seen towards 17500. Nikkei too has risen towards 38500-39000 and could face rejection soon for a sharp decline. For Nifty, we expect a range of 21500-22150 (narrow) or 21000-22150 (broad) to hold for some time.

Dow (38773.12, +0.91%) has risen well above 38500. While this sustains, a rise to 39000-39300 is possible first. Thereafter a strong reversal can be seen.

DAX (17046.69, +0.60%) has broken and risen just above the 16800-17000 range. Need to see if a strong follow-through rise is happening from here to take the DAX upto 17500 or the index is falling back into the range again

Nifty (21910.75, +0.32%) has risen further. A test of 22150 is possible now while above 21800. We expect a range of 21500-22150 (narrow) or 21000-22150 (broad) for some time.

Nikkei (38497.53, +0.89%) has risen towards 38500-39000 as expected. We are cautious near current levels as the index could face rejection soon from anywhere between 38500-39000 region.

Shanghai (2865.90) is closed for this week.

Crude prices have rebounded sharply but the resistance ahead are likely to cap the upside. Gold and Copper have bounced back but have resistance overhead. Need to see if resistance holds and keep our bearish view intact or Gold and Copper are able to break higher. Silver has scope to rise towards its upper end of the 22-23.50 range. It could trade sideways while above 22. Natural Gas to continue drifting lower towards 1.5 before a bounce back can happen.

Brent ($ 82.85) has rebounded sharply from a low of $ 80.72. However, strong resistance is at $ 84-85. While that holds, we can expect a range of $ 85/84-80 before coming down towards $ 78-75. A broad range of $ 85-75 can persist for aa while.

WTI ($ 77.52) has recovered from a low of $ 75.79. However, the resistance at $ 80 is expected to cap the upside and keep it ranged within $ 80-75 for a while. We expect a broad range of $ 80-70 to hold for some time.

Gold (2014.10) has bounced back towards 2020 from 2000. A rise past 2020, if seen, will reduce the chances of a break below 2000 and fall towards 1950 and could take it higher towards 2040-2060.

Silver (22.95) has risen sharply towards 23 as the support at 22 has been holding well. A further rise towards the upper end of the 22-23.50 is possible. Thereafter, a break above 23.50 is needed for increased bullishness towards 24; else can continue to trade within the mentioned range for a while.

Copper (3.7555) has bounced back sharply above 3.75 from a low of 3.70. Immediate resistance is at 3.78-3.80. If that holds, chances of fall towards 3.65-3.60 will remain intact. Only a decisive break above 3.80 will negate our bearish view and take it higher towards 3.90.

Natural Gas (1.5910) continues to dip. Outlook remains bearish for a test of 1.5 before a bounce back can happen towards 2.0-2.1.

13:30 19:00 US PPI
Expn 0.1% …Expected 0.1% …Previous -0.1%

13:30 19:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
Expn 0.0 …Expected 0.1 …Previous 0.0

13:30 19:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1470K …Expected1470K …Previous 1460K

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
23:50 05:20 JP GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous -0.7% …Actual -0.1%

0:30 06:00 Australia Labour Force
Expn – …Expected 20.7K …Previous -62.7K …Actual 0.5K

13:00 18:30 IN Trade bal
Expn – …Expected – …Previous -19.80 …Actual -17.49

10:00 15:30 UK Trade Bal
Expn -14.9 …Expected -14.1 …Previous -15.1 …Actual -14.0

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected 15.7 …Previous 15.1 …Actual 13

13:30 19:00 US Retail Sales (MoM)
Expn 1.4% …Expected -0.2% …Previous 0.4% …Actual -1.1%

13:30 19:00 US Philifed Index
Expn – …Expected -8.9 …Previous -10.6 …Actual 5.2

14:15 19:45 US Industrial Production
Expn 0.3% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.1% …Actual 0.1%

14:15 19:45 US Capacity Utilization
Expn 78.6% …Expected 78.9% …Previous 78.6% …Actual 78.5%

21:00 02:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 126.1