The Dollar Index is attempting to rise back towards the upper end of its range of 103.50-104.50 while Euro can dip to 1.08/1.0775 before bouncing back sharply. EURJPY can slowly target 164-165 while above 162. USDJPY is expected to move towards 151 before pausing. USDCNY continues to remain volatile within 7.18-7.20 region. Aussie is likely to trade within the 0.66-0.65 region. Pound can move higher within the 1.26-1.2730 range. EURINR is coming down from the resistance around 90.25 as expected. USDINR could initially test 82.80/75 on the downside before rising back towards 83.

Dollar Index (104.007) rose well from 103.50 last week and could be headed towards immediate resistance near 104.50 from where a rejection can be possible.

EURUSD (1.0816) came off from 1.0888 last week and has fair scope for a fall to 1.08-1.0775 before again attempting to move higher.

EURJPY (162.75) looks stable above 162 for now and while above it, there could still be some chances of a slow rise towards 164/165 before topping out soon.

Dollar-Yen (150.48) has been moving within a narrow region of 149.50-150.90 for the past few sessions and while above 150, a slow rise to 151 looks possible before a rejection is seen from there towards 149 or lower eventually in the longer run.

USDCNY (7.1977) continues to remain volatile within the 7.18-7.20 region but is closer to the upper end of the range. If the pair manages to break above 7.20, it can target 7.22/24 on the upside else can fall back within the mentioned range towards 7.18. Watch price action near 7.20 this week.

Aussie (0.6556) has been unable to break above 0.66 and has been coming off consistently on attempts to trade higher near 0.66. An immediate range of 0.66-0.65 may hold for now.

Pound (1.2658) could trade within the narrow range of 1.26-1.2730 within which an initial decline looks likely.

USDINR (82.9425) closed near 82.9425 on Friday but has again slipped back on the NDF markets and currently quote 82.86. Today, a decline below 82.90, if seen can take the pair down to 82.80. For the week we may expect a dip to 82.80/75 followed by a rise back toward resistance at 83.

EURINR (89.6494) seems to be holding well below resistance near 90-90.25 and the pair could soon come down towards 89 or lower in the medium term.

The US Treasury and the German yields declined sharply on Friday. They have to sustain above their immediate support in order to keep alive the chances of moving up again. If they break their supports, then more fall can be seen in the coming days and the rise will get negated. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their consolidation range. The 10Yr remains bearish to break the range on the downside and fall more. The 5Yr on the other hand looks mixed.

The US 10Yr (4.22%) and the 30Yr (4.34%) yields have come down sharply. The 10Yr has to sustain above 4.2% to move up towards 4.4%-4.6%. Else it can fall back to 4.1%-4% without that rise. The 30Yr has to remain above 4.3% to move back up to 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.49%) yields have declined sharply. The 10Yr has to sustain above 2.35% to keep alive the chances of seeing 2.6% on the upside. The 30Yr has failed to breach 2.6%. If it holds above the support at 2.4%, it can rise back to 2.6% again.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0764%) is moving up. As mentioned earlier, a consolidation between 7.05% and 7.15% is possible before a fall to 7%-6.95% and 6.9%-6.8% happens eventually.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0622%) is moving up within the 7.04%-7.08% range. 7.04%-7.10% can be a slightly wider range of trade for some time. While below 7.1%, we can expect a dip to 7% going forward.

Dow Jones tested its crucial resistance and has come down from there and may fall further in the near term. DAX and Nifty have key long term resistance overhead which can hold and trigger a correction. Nikkei has broken above its key resistance at 39000 and while this break sustain, a further rise can be seen in the near term. Shanghai can fall while it remains below 3000.

Dow (39131.53, +0.16) tested the crucial 39300 resistance and has come down. A fall below 39000 can take the Dow down to 38800-38500 this week.

DAX (17419.33, +0.28%) is heading up towards the 17500-17700 resistance. We can expect a corrective fall to 17200-17000 from there.

Nifty (22212.70, -0.02%) remains higher but stable. While above 22000, a test of 22500 is possible. Thereafter a reversal can be seen.

Nikkei (39321.50, +0.57) has moved up further towards 39500. A rise towards 40000-40500 looks possible while above 39000.

Shanghai (2990.96, -0.46%) lacks strength to rise above 3000. Only a decisive break above 3000 could see an extended rise to 3030-3050-3080. Else there can be scope for a fall towards 2900.

Crude prices have fallen from there key resistance in line with expectations and could fall further in the near term. Gold might trade sideways within the 2060-2000 range for a while. Copper can fall while below the resistance at 3.90-3.95. Silver range trade remains intact within 22-23.50. Natural Gas has scope to rise towards 2.0-2.1 in the near term.

Brent ($ 81.22) has declined towards $ 81 as the resistance at $ 84-85 has held well as expected. Can fall further towards $ 80/78. We expect a broad range of $ 85-75 to hold for some time.

WTI ($ 76.09) has come down towards $ 76 from levels below the key resistance of $ 80. It can dip towards $ 75-73. A broad range of $ 80-70 is expected to hold for some time.

Good rally seen in Gold (2042.60) on Friday. Resistance comes at 2050-2055 region. A rise past these resistance, if seen, could open doors towards 2090-2100. Else it can trade sideways within a broad range of 2060-2000 for a while.

Silver (22.89) has bounced back after testing a low of 22.50 on Friday. We had expected a fall towards 22.10-22 and then a bounce back from there. The broad 22-23.50 range remains intact. Outlook remains bullish to see an eventual break on the upside and rise towards 24-24.50 or even higher towards 25 in the coming days.

Copper (3.8615) has fallen back failing to break above 3.90 contrary to our view to see a test of 3.95. As mentioned earlier both 3.90-3.95 are decent resistance which may hold and lead to a fall back towards 3.80.

Natural Gas (1.7680) is oscillating within 1.65-1.80. Outlook is bullish for a break above 1.8 and rise towards 2.0-2.1 in the near term as long as it holds above 1.5.

15:00 20:30 US New Home Sales
Expn 678K …Expected 680K …Previous 664K

DATA FRIDAY
—————
23:05 04:35 UK Cons Conf
Expn -18 …Expected -18 …Previous -19 …Actual -21

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Climate
Expn 86.4 …Expected 85.5 …Previous 85.2 …Actual 85.5

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Situations
Expn 85.6 …Expected 87.0 …Previous 86.9 …Actual 86.9

9:00 14:30 GER IFO Business Expectations
Expn 84.4 …Expected 83.8 …Previous 83.5 …Actual 84.1