Forex market is likely to remain stable in the first half of the week while it can pick up some momentum on Thursday and Friday with important data releases and ECB meeting due 7th Mar-24. EU GDP, US NFP, unemployment data are all expected by the end of the week which could trigger some volatility post Wednesday. Dollar Index and USDCNY trades within 104.50-103.50 and 7.18-7.20 respectively while USDJPY and EURJPY have moved up. Euro could not sustain above 1.0850 and has dipped slightly but could attempt to rise towards 1.09 soon. Aussie needs to hold above 0.65 and Pound needs to hold below 1.2730 to keep near term ranges intact. EURINR is headed towards 90 which if breaks can be bullish towards 90.30/90.50 or higher else can fall back towards 89.50-89.00. USDINR can attempt to rise to 82.90/83.00 but can fall back towards 82.80 or lower soon.

Dollar Index (103.867) has moved up from the low of 103.70 itself, contrary to our expectations of the index testing 103.50 on the downside. Overall, near term range of 103.50-104.50 may continue to hold for now.

EURUSD (1.0851) rose above 1.085 but could not sustain and has dipped slightly from there. Unless a decisive break past 1.085 is seen, the chances of the pair coming down towards 1.075 again can be seen in the near term. Above 1.0850, resistance is seen at 1.09.

EURJPY (163.29) is rising in line with our bullish view and could soon test our mentioned target of 164-165 in the near term before eventually topping out.

Dollar-Yen (150.50) has risen within its near-term range of 149-151 which is likely to hold for some more sessions.

USDCNY (7.1971) continues to trade near the upper end of its narrow range of 7.18-7.20 and unless a break on the either side of the range is seen, further view remains indecisive.

Aussie (0.6504) has fallen back near the support of 0.65 which needs to hold and produce a bounce past 0.655 to further test 0.66 on the upside, else the pair getting dragged down towards 0.64 could be seen in the medium term.

Pound (1.2685) tested 1.2706 on the upside as expected but has dipped back from there. Overall, the immediate range of 1.26-1.2730 may hold for now before a breakout is seen on either side.

USDINR (82.8950) is rising well towards the upper end of its range of 82.80-83.00 but overall bearish view remains intact with bias towards 82.75/65 over the coming weeks. There could be series of interim resistances between 82.90-83.00.

EURINR (89.9770) is currently trading near the crucial level of 90, a break past which will be needed to make the outlook further bullish towards 90.5-91 in the coming sessions. Until then the range of 90-89 could hold for some more time.

The US Treasury yields remain lower but stable. They have to sustain above their immediate support to keep alive the chances of a rise. Else they can see a fall. The German yields have dipped but have support to limit the downside. View remains positive to see more rise from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are still stuck inside their narrow range within their downtrend.

The US 10Yr (4.21%) and the 30Yr (4.35%) yields remain stable. We repeat, the 10Yr has to sustain above 4.2% to keep alive the chances of the rise to 4.4%-4.6%. Else a fall to 4.1%-4% can be seen. The 30Yr on the other hand has to sustain above 4.3% to rise to 4.6%.

The German 10Yr (2.39%) and the 30Yr (2.53%) yields have dipped. 2.35% (10Yr) is a key support while above which the view is bullish to see a rise to 2.6%. The 30Yr has to break 2.6% to gain momentum for a rise to 2.7%-2.8%.

The 10Yr GoI (7.0601%) remains stuck inside the 7.04%-7.08% range. Bias remains negative to break 7.04% and fall to 7%-6.95% and 6.9%-6.8%. Resistance is in the 7.10%-7.12% region.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0637%) retains its 7.04% and 7.08% range. While below 7.1%, we expect the 5Yr yield to fall towards 7%.

All major indices except Nifty and Shanghai have come down a bit. Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei have supports coming up, which if hold, can keep alive the chances of rise towards our expected level. Nifty and Shanghai are heading towards their key resistance zone which might halt the current rally.

Dow (38989.83, -0.25%) has dipped. 38750 is a key support which has to hold to keep alive the chances of seeing 39500. A break below 38750 can drag it down to 38500-38000.

DAX (17716.17, -0.11%) has come down. While above 17500 an extended rise to 17900-18000 can be seen before a correction happens.

Nifty (22405.60, +0.12%) remained higher and stable. A rise to 22500-22700 is possible now. As mentioned yesterday, the chances of an extended rise to 23000 will have to be seen before a reversal happens. Support is at 22000.

Nikkei (39982, -0.26%) has come down from a high of 40315 but could get support at 39400-39000. While above 39000, chances of rise towards 40800-41000 will remain there.

Shanghai (3039.20, +0.00%) is heading towards its key immediate resistance zone of 3050-3075/3080. If 3075-3080 holds, a fall back towards 3000 can be seen.

Crude prices have fallen back and may come down further while they remains below their key resistance. Gold and Silver have risen sharply above 2100 and 23.50 and have room to rise further on the upside. Copper can remain sideways for a while. Natural Gas has scope to test its immediate resistance before a fall back can be seen.

Brent ($ 82.77) has fallen back as the resistance at $ 84-$ 85 is holding well. A dip towards $ 82-80 looks likely. Overall, a range of $ 85-80 can hold for some time.

WTI ($ 78.65) has fallen back from a high of $ 80.83. Resistance is at $ 82-83. While $ 82-83 holds, a fall back towards $ 76 can be seen.

Gold (2119.80) has risen sharply above 2100. A test of 2150-2160 looks likely on the upside. Thereafter it may fall back towards 2100.

Silver (23.90) moved up to 24.18 breaking above the upper end of the 22-23.50 range in line with expectations. It may rise further rise towards 24.50-25.00 in the near term.

Copper (3.8560) remains ranged within 3.80-3.90 and may continue to hold within this range for a while. A break above 3.90, if seen, can lead to a rise towards 3.94/3.95.

Natural Gas (1.9190) rose to 1.9890 in line with expectations for a rise towards 2.0 and has dipped slightly from there. It may extend the rise further to 2.1 while it remains above 1.8. Thereafter a corrective dip can be seen towards 1.9-1.8.

5:00 10:30 IN Services PMI
Expn 59.6 …Expected 62.0 …Previous 61.8

DATA YESTERDAY
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7:30 13:00 CH CPI
Expn 0.8 …Expected 1.1 …Previous 1.3 …Actual 1.2