Slight recovery seen in most currencies after the sharp movement seen over the last two sessions. Dollar Index below 103 looks bearish to 101 in the near term while Euro needs to break past 1.10 to rise further in the near term else could fall into a range of 1.10-1.0850/1.08. USDCNY has broken below the 7.20-7.18 region but need to see if it sustains while USDJPY and EURJPY are gradually moving up from respective supports of 160 and 146 and could soon test 162 and 148 respectively. Aussie is holding above 0.66 and could move up while above 0.6550. Pound could soon test our mentioned targets of 1.28/2750 before attempting to move up past 1.29. Unless EURINR breaks past 91, it may continue to move within 91-89 region. USDINR tested 82.65 on the downside as expected and could trade within 82.60-82.90 region for a while. US CPI release today would be important to watch and could bring in some more volatility over today and tomorrow.

Dollar Index (102.811) remained stable yesterday above 102.5, but unless a break past 103 is seen, chances of the index falling towards 102-101 seems high in the near term. We may get a better clarity after the US CPI release scheduled today.

EURUSD (1.0933) seems to be holding well below the resistance at 1.10 for now. The pair needs to break past 1.10 to maintain the bullishness in the near term. Else a fall to 1.0850-1.08 could be seen with a possible trade within 1.10-1.08 region for sometime.

EURJPY (161.05) and Dollar-Yen (147.29) have bounced while above respective supports near 160 and 146. A slow rise to 162 and 148 respectively could be possible in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1777) has finally broken below the range of 7.18-7.20 but needs to sustain to head towards 7.16/15 else can soon bounce back within the range in the next couple of sessions. Watch price action for a few more days for more clarity.

Aussie (0.6614) is likely to limit its immediate downside to 0.6550/0.6530 while higher chances are there to see an eventual rise towards 0.67/68 in the medium term.

Pound (1.2818) is likely to limits its immediate fall to 1.28/2750 while below 1.29. Thereafter, it could attempt to rise back towards 1.29/30 in the medium term.

USDINR (82.7625) tested 82.64 yesterday before closing higher at 82.7625. Note that 82.64 is an immediate and important support which can hold and produce a bounce towards 82.80/90 soon. Near term range of 82.60-82.90 may hold for at least a week.

EURINR (90.4915) is hovering below its resistance of 91 but unless a sustained break past 91 is seen, the view remains intact to see the pair trading within 91-89 region for a while.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to avoid falling back and resuming the downtrend from here itself. The US CPI data release today will need close watch. The German yields have also risen back. They still keep alive the chances of seeing a rise before reversing lower again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are coming down in line with our expectation. The bearish outlook is intact and there is room to fall more from here.

The US 10Yr (4.10%) and the 30Yr (4.26%) yields have bounced back but need to see if they can sustain. The 10Yr has to rise above 4.2% and the 30Yr above 4.3%-4.35% to negate the fall to 4% (10Yr) and 4.2%-4.15% (30Yr) mentioned yesterday.

The German 10Yr (2.30%) and the 30Yr (2.45%) yields have risen back. While above 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr), the upside will still remain open to test 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7%-2.8% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0147%) and 5Yr GOI (7.0259%) are coming down as expected. The 10Yr can fall to 7%-6.95% and 6.9%-6.8% while the 5Yr can test 7% – a crucial support. A break below 7% can drag the 5Yr further down to 6.9%.

Dow Jones has recovered but needs to rise past 39000 to avoid the danger of falling further in the coming sessions. DAX, Nifty and Nikkei have declined but have key near term supports coming up which may hold and produces a bounce back. Shanghai is attempting to break above its key resistance zone.

Dow (38769.66, +0.12%) seems to be getting support around 38450. But unless a rise above 39000 is seen, the fall to 38200-38000 cannot be avoided.

DAX (17746.27, -0.38%) has come down but support at 17500 can limit the downside. While above 17500, a rise to 18000-18200 can be seen before a reversal happens.

Nifty (22332.65, -0.72%) fell yesterday but may get support at 22200-22000. While above 22000 the rise to 22700-22800 and 23000 will still remain alive. Thereafter a corrective fall is possible.

Nikkei (38704.00, -0.40%) has declined further but might get support at 38000-37600/37500. While above 37500, a bounce back towards 39000 can be seen.

Shanghai (3047.52, -0.69%) is attempting to break above the resistance at 3065. A decisive break above 3065, if seen, can open doors towards 3200, that in turn can negate the chances of fall towards 3000-2950.

Crude prices are likely to trade sideways for a while. Gold needs to rise past 2200 to target new highs. Else there could a fall back in the near term. Silver remains higher but needs a decisive break above 25 to strengthen the bullish momentum. Key focus in on US CPI today. The previous release was 3.11% and KSHITIJ Expectation is 2.98%. But, just in case there is a nasty surprise and the CPI comes in at 3.15% or higher, the US Yields could jump and Gold and Silver could come off from 2200 and 25 respectively. Copper to remain range bound for some time before a break on upside can be seen. Natural Gas has fallen back but downside could be limited to 1.5.

Brent ($ 82.44) bounced back from a low of $ 81.08. Outlook remains mixed. The $ 80-85 range can continue to hold for the near term.

WTI ($ 78.11) bounced back after testing a low of $ 76.80 contrary to our view to see a dip towards $ 76-75. View is mixed. It is likely to trade sideways within $ 75-81 range for some time.

Gold (2186.30) is trading in a narrow range of 2180-2200. A rise past 2200 is needed to move up towards 2230-2250. Else it may come down towards 2160-2150.

Silver (24.68) is rising steadily towards 25. A decisive break above 25 can take it further higher towards 25.50-26.00 in the near term. Thereafter a correction might be seen towards 25-24. However, any pullback from 25, if seen, could drag it down to 24.

Copper (3.92) has bounced back towards 3.95 as expected. Key immediate support is now at 3.88 and resistance at 3.95. A range of 3.88-3.95 can hold for a while. It looks likely to break on the upside and rise towards 4.00 or even higher towards 4.20.

Natural Gas (1.7480) has fallen back below 1.8. However, downside could be limited to 1.5. A broad range of 1.5-2.0 can hold for some time.

7:00 12:30 UK Unemp
Expn 3.3% …Expected 3.8% …Previous 3.8%

12:00 17:30 IN IIP
Expn 2.9% …Expected 4.1% …Previous 3.8%

12:00 17:30 IN CPI
Expn 5.33 …Expected 5.02 …Previous 5.10

12:30 18:00 US CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.3 …Expected 0.4 …Previous 0.3

12:30 18:00 US Core CPI (MoM)
Expn 0.4% …Expected 0.3% …Previous 0.4%

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
23:50 05:20 JP GDP
Expn – …Expected 0.3% …Previous -0.1% …Actual 0.1%