Dollar Index and Euro are headed towards 104 and 1.0850/1.08 respectively while EURJPY and USDJPY could soon test 163/164 and 149.50/150 before halting. The BOJ and RBA meetings would be important to watch today. Market consensus expects BoJ to exit away from the negative interest rate policy today. Aussie and Pound are nearing towards their supports at 0.65 and 1.27 which are likely to hold and produce a bounce back. USDCNY needs a break past 7.20 to rise further while EURINR is testing its support around 90 and could bounce back by the end of the week. USDINR may continue to trade higher within 82.75/80-82.95/83.00 for the near term. Possible extension to 83.05/10 cannot be ruled out.

Dollar Index (103.59) and EURUSD (1.088873) are moving in line with our expectations and could soon test our mentioned targets of 104 and 1.0850/1.08 respectively before any reversals are seen in the near term.

EURJPY (162.27) and Dollar-Yen (149.22) are slowly heading towards 163/164 and 149.50/150 respectively before a halt is seen in the near term.

USDCNY (7.1977) is slowly inching up towards 7.20 and seems that it can soon break on the upside to target 7.22/24.

Aussie (0.6554) is coming down as expected but the support at 0.65 is likely to hold well in the near term. Keep an eye out for any shifts in the RBA’s hawkish stance or any comments on inflation and the economic outlook in todays meeting.

Pound (1.2723) is nearing towards 1.27 which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back towards 1.29. The immediate range of 1.27-1.29 is expected to hold for some time. Price action around 1.27 would be important to watch.

USDINR (82.91) could trade within a narrow range of 82.75/80-83.00 for the next few sessions with possible extensions to 83.05/10 in the medium term.

EURINR (90.1747) is trading just above the support around 90 which is likely to hold and produce a rise towards 90.50-90.80 in the next few sessions. However, a broad range of 89-91 may hold in the medium term.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up in line with our expectation. Both the yields have room to rise further in the coming days. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome tomorrow will need a close watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are witnessing the extended rise as expected. They can rise further and test their resistance before reversing lower again.

The US 10Yr (4.33%) and the 30Yr (4.45%) yields continue to move up towards 4.4% and 4.6% in line with our expectation. We will have to wait and watch whether a reversal is happening thereafter or not.

The German 10Yr (2.46%) and the 30Yr (2.60%) yields have moved up further. Our bullish view of seeing a rise to 2.6% (10Yr) and 2.7%-2.8% (30Yr) remains intact. Key supports are at 2.2% (10Yr) and 2.35% (30Yr).

The 10Yr GoI (7.0871%) is seeing the extended rise towards 7.1% mentioned yesterday. A reversal thereafter will keep the broader downtrend intact and drag it down to 7% and lower again.

The 5Yr GOI (7.0751%) has risen above 7.07% and can see a test of 7.1%-7.12%. Thereafter the price action will need a watch for a reversal.

Dow Jones looks range bound. A decisive break on either side of the range is needed to determine its next direction. DAX keep struggling to breach above 18000 but still has scope to target new highs while it remains above its key support zone. Nifty is getting some support around 21900 but would remain vulnerable to a fall while below the resistance at 22250. Nikkei have fallen ahead of the BOJ meeting where the market expects the central bank to end its negative interest rate policy. Shanghai has broken above its resistance and looks bullish for the near term.

Dow (38790.43, +0.20%) remains stable within the 38500-39200 range. A breakout on either side of this range will determine whether the Dow will rise to 39500-39700 or fall to 38000.

DAX (17932.68, -0.02%) seems to be struggling to breach 18000 over the last few days. But a rise to 18200-18500 is still a possibility. Need to see if a fall to 17700 happens first before the above-mentioned rise is seen. Wait and watch.

Nifty (22055.70, +0.15) is hovering around 22000. As mentioned yesterday, a strong rise past 22250 is needed to bring back the bullishness of seeing 22500-23000 again. Else a fall to 21500 cannot be ruled out.

Nikkei (39544.50, -0.33%) has fallen after testing a high of 39769. The resistance at 40000 and support at 39000 can hold for some time.

Shanghai (3080.86, -0.12%) has risen above 3050. A rise towards 3150-3200 looks possible while above 3050.

Crude Prices have scope to test their key resistance before a corrective dip can be seen. Gold has bounced back but needs to rise past its resistance for increased bullishness. Silver and Copper have dipped but could get support at 25 and 4.05-4.00 respectively. Natural Gas appears ranged within 1.6-1.8.

Brent ($ 86.75) has scope to test $ 87.80-$ 90 before a fall back might be seen towards $ 86-85.

WTI ($ 82.04) has risen sharply towards $ 83. It may extend the rise further to $ 84-85. After that, a fall back might be seen towards $ 80.

Gold (2164.40) tested a low of 2149.20 yesterday and has bounced back slightly. For now, the 2150-2200 range remains intact. A rise past 2185-2200 is needed to become bullish towards 2230-2250. Else a fall towards 2120-2100 cannot be ruled out.

Silver (25.28) has scope to test 25 (revised from 24.85) before a bounce back can happen towards 26-26.30. Only a break lower, if seen, would be vulnerable to a fall towards 24.50.

Copper (4.1295) has come down from a high of 4.164. Support is seen at 4.05 and then lower at 4.01-4.00. While above 4.00, chances of rise towards 4.20-4.30 will remain intact.

Natural Gas (1.72) appears ranged within 1.6-1.8. A decisive break above 1.8 is needed to rise towards 2.0. Else a fall towards 1.5 cannot be ruled out. Overall a broad range of 1.5-2.0 can hold for some time.

3:00 08:30 BOJ Meeting
Expn – …Expected -0.10% …Previous -0.10%

3:30 09:00 RBA Meeting
Expn – …Expected 4.35% …Previous 4.35%

12:30 18:00 US Housing Starts
Expn 1495K …Expected 1430K …Previous 1331K

12:30 18:00 CA Inflation Y/Y
Expn – …Expected – …Previous 2.9%

20:00 01:30 US TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
Expn – …Expected 95.5$ Bln …Previous 160.2$ Bln

DATA YESTERDAY
—————
1:30 07:00 CN IIP
Expn – …Expected 5.3 …Previous 6.8 …Actual 7.0

1:30 07:00 CN Retail Sales
Expn – …Expected 5.6 …Previous 7.4 …Actual 5.5

10:00 15:30 EU CPI (YoY)
Expn 2.6% …Expected 2.6% …Previous 2.8% …Actual 2.6%

10:00 15:30 EU Trade Bal
Expn – …Expected 14.2 …Previous 14.3 …Actual 28.1